Jord - First I have to say that I am surprised by your sudden love for the Warriors, given that in the past couple months you have been down on them in general. Even without taking into consideration the new odds posted, which have Denver still as a heavy favorite, I don't think the Warriors win this series. The beauty of the seven game format is that things even out (usually). The better team should win. Look how odds shift in other series to get an idea of how much credit oddsmakers give to teams winning or losing games. To me, the line in the next game, and the series line, is begging for Warriors action - they now have the "advantage", so why are they still fairly big dogs? They just won huge, so why are they not bigger favorites on Friday? The Grizzlies lost both games to the Clippers, and still they are bigger favorites.
The Nuggets looked like crap in the first two games, with that I definitely agree, and the Warriors looked great. But I just don't see it maintaining. Faried looked awful last night, but a lot of times players returning from injury struggle in their first game back. I just don't think the Warriors can sustain without Lee. Even with him, I don't think they could match the game they had last night. Shooting over 60% in the playoffs just isn't the norm (in fact only 9 teams of the 1074 playoff competitors in the last ten years have ever shot above 60%). They got SUPER hot. They averaged 1.32 ppp - that is insane! They shot almost 15% better from the field last night, and still only won by 14. With those numbers, they should have won by 30.
In the first two games, the Warriors brought intensity and the Nuggets did not. I feel that the Nuggets got a bit complacent with their home court advantage - they felt "invincible" there, and it reflected in their last two games. "Man, they were just knocking it down. They had more intensity and it was more urgent for them. It was a must-win for them and for us it was like a walk in the park. We just were not paying attention."
- Lawson
The three teams that I followed the closest this season are the Warriors, Nuggets, and Nets. I love Curry - he is one of my top five favorite players. He is unreal, best shooter in the league. I just think in the end the way the Nuggets play is much more sustainable, and their style will prevail. I have been super impressed with the Warriors so far, and the Nuggets have not played well. But still, I don't think you can't put too much stock into that last game.
Of course, I have been known to be wrong plenty of times, and perhaps I am blindly in love with the regular season success of the Nuggets. I just believe that Karl is one of the best coaches, and the team will respond in the next game. Aggressors win, and they just weren't taking on this role in either of the first two games. And, this is a Warriors team that was just 8-8 since the new year at home against winning teams.
Sorry, I am not known for brevity.
Best of luck
