Ted Sevransky 3*
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EXPERT: Ted Sevransky
REASON FOR PICK: Since their awful 7-16 start that put manager Ron Washington on the hot seat, the Rangers have been the single most profitable team to support in all of baseball. They?ve won 17 different times as an underdog during that span, as part of a slow, steady run that has brought them back to the .500 mark as they travel to New York to take on the slumping Mets.
Slumping might not be an accurate word ? the Mets are in free fall right now, losers of six of their last seven. New York?s bullpen is in dire straights ? closer Billy Wagner blew two saves in their last two games in the just concluded series against Arizona ? he?s not going to be available tonight. Neither is the only other guy in the bullpen who can close games, Aaron Heilman, who has worked in each of the last three games for New York. That?s particularly bad news considering that their middle relief has been terrible all year and starter Oliver Perez has lasted a grand total of 16.2 innings in his last four starts.
Perez is a horrible fit against the red hot Rangers lineup. Texas is patient at the plate, ranked fourth in the big leagues in walks taken, while Perez has issued 16 walks in the aforementioned last four starts, with 45 walks in 65 innings of work for the season. Texas has scored 91 runs in their last dozen games, more than 7.5 runs per outings, scoring eight or more runs on seven different occasions and at least four runs in every one of those ballgames. Meanwhile, underrated Texas starter Scott Feldman has thrown five quality starts in his last seven trips to the hill. The nice plus price here is simply too attractive to pass up. 3* Take Texas.
Ted Sevransky 3*
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EXPERT: Ted Sevransky
REASON FOR PICK: Atlanta is in absolute free fall right now. The team dropped to 7-24 on the highway with an extra inning loss at Chicago yesterday, thanks to another blown save opportunity from a bullpen that can?t get anybody out right now. They?ve lost an amazing 21 consecutive one run decisions on the road. They?ve lost six in a row against elite level teams (Philadelphia and Chicago), facing another elite level squad tonight. Their supposedly potent offense can?t hit their way out of a paper bag these days, scoring just 3.6 runs per game on the road this year, held to just 17 runs during their current six game skid. Let?s not forget the Braves 4-11 mark in interleague play last year (while LA went 14-4), or their 5-10 interleague mark in 2006. This is not a difficult team to fade in this price range, not at all.
The Angels have been pounding lefties like Atlanta?s Jo-Jo Reyes all year long. The numbers don?t lie: LA is 13-2 against southpaw starters in 2008, winning each of their last eight against lefties. For the season, LA is hitting .280 against lefties in sharp contrast to their .249 average against righties. In their last ten games, the dichotomy is even stronger: .302 against southpaws, .225 against righties. And unlike Atlanta, the Angels are red hot right now; 9-2 in their last eleven ballgames.
Angels starter Jon Garland is in tremendous current form, allowing just 12 runs in 47.1 innings in his last seven starts. That stands in sharp contrast to Reyes, who has yet to win a game on the road this season, while showing signs of struggling with the gopher ball: five homers allowed in his last four trips to the hill. Better team, hotter team, better pitcher, better bullpen and a relatively cheap price gets me to the window here. 3* Take the LA Angels.