Frisco Bowl

[Smitty]

haven't got very far, but wanted to start the thread to jot down some notes.

maybe the most important thing, and it's not specific to this game, but i may have found a better source for opt-outs.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/n...l-opt-outs-tracker-players-sitting-out-bowls/




Memphis is essentially missing nobody. WVU is missing their 2nd-leading tackler (Trotter) and their 2nd-leading receiver in terms of yards (Ray).

looks like they are getting some thunderstorms tonight in Frisco and again tomorrow morning, with maybe a little more rain around game time. some wind (gusts in the mid-teens). it's a grass field, so that could be a factor.

WVU fired head coach neal brown (and they are bringing back DickRod. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA)

i'll dig into the numbers tomorrow, but it looks like two teams that can score, two bad defenses, and yet the total is only 58.5? hmmmmm...

 

[ejthree]

haven't got very far, but wanted to start the thread to jot down some notes.

maybe the most important thing, and it's not specific to this game, but i may have found a better source for opt-outs.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/n...l-opt-outs-tracker-players-sitting-out-bowls/

View attachment 6968815


Memphis is essentially missing nobody. WVU is missing their 2nd-leading tackler (Trotter) and their 2nd-leading receiver in terms of yards (Ray).

looks like they are getting some thunderstorms tonight in Frisco and again tomorrow morning, with maybe a little more rain around game time. some wind (gusts in the mid-teens). it's a grass field, so that could be a factor.

WVU fired head coach neal brown (and they are bringing back DickRod. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA)

i'll dig into the numbers tomorrow, but it looks like two teams that can score, two bad defenses, and yet the total is only 58.5? hmmmmm...

DickRod? Coach at Jax St? I'm visiting 25 mins from campus for the holidays and talked about going to game vs Ohio.

 

[Destructor D]

Took Memphis ML -195 myself. WVU already had a terrible pass defense and see them getting shredded again. Took ML mainly because Memphis is 2-5-1 ATS as a favorite and didn't want to lose on some crazy backdoor cover. Wish I had played sooner but didn't review the game until early this morning. ML has gone up since I placed my wager. Small play on Over 58.5 as well as I don't see the weather being a huge factor and neither team has a great defense.

 

[LordofBalls]

yah I thought about playing it yday at 58.5, but decided to give the 'house' a chance, playing OVER 60.5

GL whatever you play Smitty!
LoB

 

[Smitty]

DickRod? Coach at Jax St? I'm visiting 25 mins from campus for the holidays and talked about going to game vs Ohio.

yup, he's going back to WVU. apparently it was announced the same day as belichick to UNC, so it got lost in the noise.

they think bringing him back will restore their lost glory.

 

[Smitty]

ok, as always, let's look at some numbers.

WVU averages 4.69 yds/rush (49th in the country)
memphis allows 3.77 (35th)

memphis averages 4.98 yds/rush (30th)
WVU allows 4.1 (64th)

WVU gains 7.27 yards/pass att (70th)
memphis allows 7.24/att (73rd)

memphis gains 7.11 (82nd)
WVU allows 8.96 (131rd!)

WVU doesn't have an explosive run game, but they're solid. i think they'll be able to run the ball, especially with greene. of course, the problem with that... it's hard to stay with the run when your opponent is lighting up your 3rd-worst in the country pass defense. it's really hard not to imagine henigen having a huge day.

on paper, there's no reason to think memphis won't roll tonight. unless... they just don't show up to play. they may not be taking the scooter's coffee frisco bowl seriously. they ended the season by avenging last year's loss to tulane. and last year, they won the liberty bowl. i may be out of touch with today's youth, but i think the liberty bowl is still a bigger deal than the frisco bowl. on the other side, maybe the WVU players hated coach brown. maybe they'll be happy he's gone, and looking to impress the incoming coach.

a lot of maybes there. i could be just reaching for a reason to play the dog. i know the side and total have been bet up, but my gut is telling me both were suspiciously low to begin with.

1 unit each.

WVU (+6)
WVU 1H (+3.5)
Under (60.5)
1H Under (29.5 Even)

 

[rob22278]

I’m on under 61
Let’s get it
Good luck this bowl season Smitty

 

[Smitty]

I’m on under 61
Let’s get it
Good luck this bowl season Smitty

thanks, rob, GL to you as well.

looks like the side and total have been bet down to 5 & 59.5. so, if nothing else, this is one of the rare times i got good lines. which makes sense, because i kept my bets small.