Fry's Dot Com Open

[Tommyjay]

I don't know if this tournament is the first one of the new year, or one of the last few for '13. This is first as far as Fed Ex is concerned.
Located in San Martin (pronounced San Marteen) which is a nice south neighborhood of Morgan Hill, which is a nice south neighborhood of the shithole south San Jose Ca. Kind of a trick shot layout, not really a bomb and pitch deal. Weather good a little cooler than normal.

Jimmy Walker to win 32-1 5d

Played this course really, really well last year, but overall has a pretty crappy record here. Still a maiden, Walker accumulates a fair amount of millions. He plays well at the beginning of seasons, so if this is the start of '14, then good. If not, then bad, I guess.

 

[sharky17]

TOURNAMENT

LUKE GUTHRIE (-120) over DANNY LEE
DAVID HEARN (-130) over BRIAN DAVIS
BROOKS KOEPKA (-110) over CAMILO VILLEGAS
SY NOH (-110) over BUD CAULEY
CHARLES HOWELL III (-125) over BRYCE MOLDER

ROUND 1

ANDREW SVOBODA (+125) over TED POTTER, JR

:toast:

 

[Tommyjay]

72 holes

SY Noh over Cauley -110
Villegas over Koepka -115
Singh over Immelman -120
Overton over Chappell -120
Kolkrak over Sabbatini -130

Of these five, I like the SY Noh bet the most.

 

[Let's Have Fun]

ye yang 80-1 ew to win tourney

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

First Round
Singh over Ogilvy -120

 

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

David Hearn to beat Brooks Koepka -111 @ Bet365
Koepka has had quite a year in Europe this year, winning three times on the Challenge Tour to earn an automatic Tour Card for the European Tour where he has earned five top-30 finishes in eight starts. The former Florida State player is now competing in his first (non-Major) PGA Tour event and he clearly is a great prospect. However, Hearn reached the penultimate stage of the Playoffs, had been in good form until the inter-season break and finished 7th on this course two years ago. I'd price him as the favourite in this matchup in a PGA Tour event at the moment.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

John Huh(45/1) e.w.
Jason Kokrak(50/1) e.w.
Sean O'Hair(100/1) e.w.
Robert Allenby(150/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(150/1) e.w.
J.J. Henry(150/1) e.w.

GL

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 1

CHARLIE WI (-115) over YE YANG

:toast:

 

[Tommyjay]

The one guy I thought would have a good week, sucked horribly.

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 2

WILL MacKENZIE (-120) over JERRY KELLY

LUKE GUTHRIE (-120) over NICHOLAS THOMPSON

:toast:

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Second Round

NThompson over Guthrie +100

:toast:

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Damn I was way off on that one.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Ryo Ishikawa to beat Andres Gonzales -138 @ Stan James
Backing Ishikawa as he has been in great form recently finishing in the top-10 in each of the last three Web.com Tour Finals events and opposing Gonzales who shot the lowest round of the day yesterday and the lowest round of his Tour career: 62. It is notoriously difficult to follow-up such a low score.

Justin Leonard to beat Mike Weir -135 @ 5Dimes
Two players who made it to the weekend on the cut line, but have been playing very differently so far this week: of the players that made the cut, whereas Leonard ranks 7th in greens in regulation, Weir ranks last in that category and there are only eight players who hit the ball shorter off the tee and even less than have been more errant. So I don't see Weir improving his lowly leaderboard position.

John Peterson to beat Michael Putnam -110 @ Stan James
Backing the hot player in this matchup. Peterson finished the 2013 Web.com Tour with consecutive finishes of 3rd, 5th, 3rd, 3rd, and 2nd to finish 1st in the Web.com Tour Finals Priority Rankings and finish the season with the lowest scoring average on the Web.com Tour. It has seen him finish ahead of fellow Web.com graduate, Putnam, in each of their last six common events, so I'll back him to continue that streak this week.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Cink tb Lee -125; Molder tb Blixt -120]

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 3

JOHN ROLLINS (-110) over PAT PEREZ

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 4

CHARLIE WI (-110) over SPENCER LEVIN

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Ben Martin to beat Jim Herman -110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
Two players inside the top-10, but this is a position from which Martin has previously done well. In the eight previous times that he has started the final round of a PGA or Web.com Tour event inside the top-10, he has broken 70 every time. With a h2h record that shows Martin is 8-for-8 in the past 12 months, he should be a strong favourite in this matchup.

Hideki Matsuyama to beat Spencer Levin -125 @ Stan James
In the last six months, Matsuyama has finished 21st or better in 15 of 16 events and while his three wins have been in Japan, those high finished have included two Majors, three other PGA Tour events and a WGC event. Currently 12th and ranking 4th for DD, 17th for DA and 6th for GIR, he is certainly playing well enough to extend that run for another week. Levin, by comparison, ranks 48th, 66th and 74th in those categories, so he shouldn't be able to compete with the Japanese player today.

Hideki Matsuyama to beat Jeff Overton -112 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
Overton is another who ball-striking has been much worse that Matsuyama's this week. And given that he has recorded just one top-25 finish in his last 22 starts (and that was over six months ago), it seems rather unlikely that he will be able to hold onto his current 20th place position.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: MacKenzie tb McNeill -104; Davis tb Ishikawa -111]

 

[Let's Have Fun]

Nice call Tommyjay

 

[HoopsGuru]

Thanks for the rd4 plays stanley. Hit the first two!

 

[sharky17]

Nice call Tommyjay

Yes, great call!

 

[boomer1]

nice work Stanley and tommy