FSU/Louisville

[JEFF]

Absolutely love the Noles here. Only thing is, I'd much rather see the line at 14 than 15, but not much you can do about that.

Louisville came into this season hyped as a darkhorse but bottom line they just arent that good. Several things point to and FSU rout:

-UL Offensive line is horrible. Did you see them get killed by Kentucky? FSU DL is going to be all over Ragone early and often. The OL is committing a ton of penalties, and Louisville is easily the most penalized team in C-USA.

-Along the same lines, UL has no rushing game. They couldnt even run the ball with great success against Army -- Ragone was the leading rusher. Its gonna be chuck-and-duck, with a bad OL no less.

-Like clockwork, UL comes up lame in nationally televised games each and every year.

-UL run D looks good on paper, but has not faced anything residing inthe same universe as FSU's rushing game. This is justa dominant team.

-FSU is coming off an easy game against Duke. All the first stringers got lot of rest, and you can believe the coaches were already looking at UL.

I think it adds up to a big FSU win.

 

[JEFF]

Also love Wake Forest -2 over UVA

ACCs best rushing O vs. worst rushing D.Big time coaching mismatch. Grobe also is a UVA alum who probably likes to show he should have gotten the UVA job -- he did just that last year, his first at Wake, when he ended a string of 17 straight SU losses to UVA.

UVA has gotten a lot of recruits and will be good in a few years, but this season they just are not very good despite the one good win over S.Carolina.

Wake is the nations best TO ratio team and the QB has not thrown a pick yet this season. Meanwhile, UVA is one of the nations youngest squads, and will be on the road.

Nice sized play on W.Forest.

 

[cutigerdoc]

Jeff--

Should you be worried that Florida State plays the following Thursday night at home against Clemson (daddy Bowden vs son Bowden)??? I like FSU also but am nervous that they may be looking ahead. :shrug:

 

[Unicorn]

Good point brought up in the last post but I think FSU will have its' focus considering it's a Nationally televised game. The point that stands out is that UL's O-Line is horrendous. I think Raggone will be running for his life the whole game and I think the only time they score is garbage time. I really like them in the first half. Go Noles...

:grins:

 

[JEFF]

First half may not be a bad idea. The game line looks pretty good too, although I hate giving 15 instead of 14.

Also looking at the over for the same reasons, although I dont know what it will come out at. But the UL O Line will have Ragone rushing his throws and forcing things all game, and theyre not gonna rush the ball effectively. On the other side, I don't see UL stopping FSU all that often.

Wondering what the total will be, mid 50's maybe? I see FSU winning something like 42-17 or so. As lon as its not 42-28

 

[hellah10]

Liked what you said on the Noles JEFF

Locked in at -14.5

 

[JEFF]

good luck to us

 

[Senor Capper]

JEFF

JEFF

Not to worry Noles takes this one with points to spare
Also like your WF selection

:toast:

 

[JEFF]

Lanny

Lanny

I hope you're right, very nice to hear you agree

 

[yak merchant]

Don't like this one at all. First off I'm completely allergic to laying more than -14 points, especially on the road. That being said I'm having flash backs of a 6-2 Florida State team favored by 18.5 losing at home to NC State last year. I'm not sold that Florida State miraculously returned to the powerhouse of old in one year. And I'll admit the only game I've seen was the Iowa state game, butI don't get where you guys get the idea that it's going to be a jail break everytime Louisville snaps the ball. Statistically Florida states opponents have thrown the ball 134 times against them, and they have only 8 sackes. Which when you look at the percentages, that is middle of the pack at best behind teams like Buffalo, Navy, Army, Duke and Tulsa. Now I'll admit Louisville will may not be able to run the ball, but I'm also not convinced Florida State is going to run the ball that effectively. Maryland and Duke held them to under 4 yards a carry. Louisville's run D is as good as any FSU has seen. And crazy things can happen when a team has to go one dimensional. Now I'm not saying I'm betting on Louisville, because basically any team that is averaging 12 penalties for 103.75 yards a game, and has a wretched punter is not going to get my money. However, I'll be passing for several reasons. I do not think the talent difference is that great, Louisville will be up for this game, they have basically their whole defense back from last years bowl team, and I believe Florida State is susceptible to the pass. Do what you may but even if Florida State dominates which I don't see, real nice chance for a backdoor job on this one.

 

[theGibber1]

ive been burned 2 times this yr on florida state allowing the back door cover in the 4th qtr.........

i wont fall for that chit anymore:nono:

i can see it now

florida is sitting comon a 3td lead with 2minutes in the game..........

the D lays down.. boom! FS is happy for the 2td win.. and the gambling community is tearing up their tickets!

ill pass

perhaps the 1st half play?:shrug:

 

[NY Reb]

You all have very good arguments, but I like Louisville in this situation. FSU was never afraid of Louisville in the first place, but with them coming in with a record of 2-2 the Noles are not going to be that interested. Clemson and son Bowden come next week, and that's far more interesting. Sure FSU likes to look good on national TV, but that doesn't mean Louisville will roll over and play dead. Hell, even the editor of FSU's school paper says Louisville will cover this game. FSU might win by 14, but it's not going to be the cakewalk that a lot people seem to presume.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I'll be backing the Noles on Thursday as well. I don't think that the Cardinals can get to the outside of the FSU defense and that's where Lousiville likes to attack. Rix isn't much of a leader, but I predict Ragone will be limping around the field, trying to show the national audience that it's not his fault, but the offensive line's like he did against UK. He's got Harbaugh syndrome and who would want to play for a QB that does that.

Louisville has dubbed this game their Super Bowl, their coaches have been happy with the practice efforts this week and they have 23 Florida-born players on their team looking for some payback for getting passed over by FSU. But I don't think it will be enough. Florida State only looks ahead to Florida and Miami, not an ACC team.

 

[JEFF]

Hey, I hardly recall saying this was a loc*.

Of course they could leave the backdoor open giving 15. Thats the risk you take in this spot. But how can you say Louisville will be "up for this game." Every time they are up for a nationally televised game, they stink the joint up. Every single time.

Also, UL run D may be solid, but I seriosuly doubt they are going to force FSU O to play one-dimensional.

FSU may bot have a lot of sacks, but they have a lot of studs up front, and theLouisville OL has been a sieve. Ragone better have the game of his life and they'd better cut out all those penalties if this one is going to be even close. It could go either way, we shall see.

 

[Lock Doctor]

backdoor bust

backdoor bust

I grew up watching FSU football and consider myself a fan. I'll be the first to tell you that with FSU they jumped out early and often and that back door cover will kill you everytime. Look for Dave Ragone to toss a meaningless pass in the end-zone late in the 4th.

 

[djv]

This game about as important to Fld as Duke was. Remember this year the NCAA not giving as much credit to teams for running up high scores. Louville fits a nice little 68% theory. Not that means hell of alot. But Clemson up next does. That one extra point -15 could be a killer.

 

[MAJOR MARTY]

HMMMMMMM!!!!!!!

HMMMMMMM!!!!!!!

JUST A LITTLE INFO TIDBIT........FLA. ST. RANKS LAST IN THE ACC. IN GUESS WHAT?? YEP, PASSING DEFENSE! :shrug:

 

[JEFF]

That is FSU'sonly real weakness - their DBs arent as good as usual.

They have been giving up too many passing yards. But they also have a ton of playmakers on the defense. Guys who can turn the ball over for them. And Ragone tends to make som ill advised plays.

Also, it doesnt matter if FSU DBs arent All Americans if their OL doesnt block anyone.

 

[REBEL YELL]

Those passing defence numbers are deceiving. Florida St. has been ahead in every game and everyone has had to try to play catch up through the air. Have also been playing substitutes during garbege time.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

After watching that Louisville/Kentucky game earlier this year, im definately taking FSU here. Not @-15, but in the first half. I think they come out fired up, put up some points, and then cruise second half--backdoor chance--sure, its def. a possibility.

But my bigger play is the UNDER @ 55. Got it earlier this week, when i noticed all the rain that was predicted. They are predicting 8 hours of continuous rain tomorrow starting in the morning and the field is supposed to be a lake by game time. So i figure with all the rain, im going UNDER for 10 units. Good luck!