Futures Bet Worth Some Consideration

[GM]

This Future is posted at Carib Sports, and wagering on it closes Sunday morning at 11am EST...

Odds to win the Super Bowl:
NFC -3?, O/U 49

This line and total is basically saying they expect St Louis to be in, and win, the Super Bowl. I think the Under is a real value here.

If St Louis DOESN'T make it to the big game, I think it's highly unlikely the posted total will be anywhere close to this range. Who will represent the NFC if not St Louis? Green Bay, NY Giants or Philly probably are most likely. Outsiders include San Fran, Chicago, Tampa Bay & New Orleans (though none of those 4 to me really looks like they are legit). In any event, no team in the entire group outside of San Fran would you call defensively weak. Only SF and GB routinely light up the scoreboard.

If the Rams DO make it to the Super Bowl, who will they play? Baltimore, Oakland and Denver seem like the most likely opponents at this point. Maybe an argument could be made for teams like Miami or Pittsburgh. In any event, only if the Rams played the Broncos, or possibly the Raiders, will the total be in this neighbourhood. Any other opponent and you would have to be getting good to tremendous value.

Seems like there are a lot more possibilites of a matchup where the posted total will be less than 49.

For that matter, if St Louis doesn't make it to the big game, I don't see too many scenarios where the NFC is favored by more than a FG no matter who plays. I think the AFC plus the pts might be worth a shot too.

Regardless, I'm really liking the Under considering all the possibilities.

Opinions anyone?

 

[count zero]

Does sound like a worthwhile shot. Hopefully, by February the young Ram D might be playing well enough that the totals lines on the Rams will be lower and you'll have value even if St Louis makes it. One possible worry though, is that SBs tend to be high-scoring, not sure if you've factored that in or not. Teams don't let up once they get ahead like they do in the regular season. Since you'll probably be in a negative expectation spot if the Rams do make it, you need to be pretty sure of covering if they don't, and 49 would only be high by a few points for a SB game between several of the other contenders.

 

[GM]

Hi CZ,

Yes, I agree with your points about high-scoring SB's. However, I could see a scenario where StL makes it to the big game and the total on the game is 45 or 46. Especially if by the end of the season the Rams D HAS proven to be better than in the past. If I really don't like the Under at that point, I could always take the Over at that time and hedge my bet, with a possibility of a middle if it lands between 45 and 49. (Longshot I know, but at least I could get out of it if I really felt I had to).

And if this is a NYG/Balt SB again and the total on the game is 34ish, I've got myself either a (fairly) sure winner, or a 15-point middle opportunity if I want to take a stab at it.

I've posted this on 3 different boards over the past week and gotten either no response or very little...which strikes me a bit odd. I see this as a no-lose proposition at this point, so I'm putting in the Under today.

GM

 

[pepin46]

gm

that is a mighty big number for any game, and the possibility of the actual number being way under makes it even more attractive.

be aware that you are lending money over an extended period of time, regardless of the name of the entity.


pep

 

[GM]

Hi Pep,

True, but as I see it my money is going to be in my accounts until at least the SB anyways. At that point I will cash a couple out and keep a couple going for hoops. I've got enough of a float going that tying some up in a future's bet won't hurt.

People - there is value in this number!