Hey guys - just wanted to get some opinions.
First off - what happens if you bet a team to win the conference and they tie? A la, USC and Arizona State, or West Virginia and Uconn last year?
Let's get to some bets:
Miami (FL) under 8 (-175)
I'll lay the juice in this case because instead of the 7.5, now they have to win nine games for me to lose. Their non-conference is two cakewalks, a trip to Florida and a trip to Texas A&M. That's like 2-2 - maybe 3-1. That means they have to go either 7-1 or 6-2 in the ACC to beat me. They've won a combined five games in the ACC the last two years. There are freshmen all over the place and while the Coastal division is pretty weak, there should be enough inconsistency on a young squad that they get to two losses in-house. Moving to Dolphins Stadium hurts them (at least a little) and finishing up with three road games in their last four games is a hurdle.
Wake Forest to win the ACC +1100
Who is making these lines? They return virtually their entire defense intact, plus their offensive backfield, which is pretty darn good. They won the ACC title two years ago and probably wouldn't have lost to Nebraska last year if Skinner was healthy.
The best part about this line? They get Clemson at home, which should decide the division. Sure, drink all the Clemson koolaid you want but if they flop, you are getting 11-1 on the next best team in the conference. Clemson's schedule is much tougher.
Wake plays everyone tough and finishes up with four home games in the final five weeks.
Ohio State to Win Big 10 +110
This is another sheer value play. I've seen the line as high as -250 at sharper books but getting the Buckeyes as a dog to win the conference? I think they'll lose at Camp Randall and Wisconsin concerns me a bit, but on value alone this is a solid bet.
Pitt (+800) or South Florida (+265) to win Big East
I love West Virginia to lose this conference - I wish I could just bet that somehow. This is the next best thing. WVU goes to East Carolina and Colorado back-to-back to get things started, then they have Auburn later. Throw in trips to Connecticut and Pittsburgh, then a neutral game versus South Florida. Wow.
After a couple of losses, they'll start to miss Coach Rodriguez. We'll see if Devine can take a full season of pounding.
Tennessee over 8 wins +110 & National Championship +3000
Considering they only have to replace a quarterback, this team could be severely underrated. SEC schedule isn't easy but the matchup with Florida should provide a win since it's a revenge game after Florida ran up the score last year. How's this for an intriguing stat:
"39-11 --that's the record for Phillip Fulmer's teams with a first-year starting quarterback, which the Vols will have this season. That includes a national championship in 1998 with Tee Martin as a first-year starter and an SEC East title in 2004 when Brent Schaeffer, Erik Ainge and Rick Clausen were first-year starters and shared time."
Worth a small play.
Thoughts anyone?
First off - what happens if you bet a team to win the conference and they tie? A la, USC and Arizona State, or West Virginia and Uconn last year?
Let's get to some bets:
Miami (FL) under 8 (-175)
I'll lay the juice in this case because instead of the 7.5, now they have to win nine games for me to lose. Their non-conference is two cakewalks, a trip to Florida and a trip to Texas A&M. That's like 2-2 - maybe 3-1. That means they have to go either 7-1 or 6-2 in the ACC to beat me. They've won a combined five games in the ACC the last two years. There are freshmen all over the place and while the Coastal division is pretty weak, there should be enough inconsistency on a young squad that they get to two losses in-house. Moving to Dolphins Stadium hurts them (at least a little) and finishing up with three road games in their last four games is a hurdle.
Wake Forest to win the ACC +1100
Who is making these lines? They return virtually their entire defense intact, plus their offensive backfield, which is pretty darn good. They won the ACC title two years ago and probably wouldn't have lost to Nebraska last year if Skinner was healthy.
The best part about this line? They get Clemson at home, which should decide the division. Sure, drink all the Clemson koolaid you want but if they flop, you are getting 11-1 on the next best team in the conference. Clemson's schedule is much tougher.
Wake plays everyone tough and finishes up with four home games in the final five weeks.
Ohio State to Win Big 10 +110
This is another sheer value play. I've seen the line as high as -250 at sharper books but getting the Buckeyes as a dog to win the conference? I think they'll lose at Camp Randall and Wisconsin concerns me a bit, but on value alone this is a solid bet.
Pitt (+800) or South Florida (+265) to win Big East
I love West Virginia to lose this conference - I wish I could just bet that somehow. This is the next best thing. WVU goes to East Carolina and Colorado back-to-back to get things started, then they have Auburn later. Throw in trips to Connecticut and Pittsburgh, then a neutral game versus South Florida. Wow.
After a couple of losses, they'll start to miss Coach Rodriguez. We'll see if Devine can take a full season of pounding.
Tennessee over 8 wins +110 & National Championship +3000
Considering they only have to replace a quarterback, this team could be severely underrated. SEC schedule isn't easy but the matchup with Florida should provide a win since it's a revenge game after Florida ran up the score last year. How's this for an intriguing stat:
"39-11 --that's the record for Phillip Fulmer's teams with a first-year starting quarterback, which the Vols will have this season. That includes a national championship in 1998 with Tee Martin as a first-year starter and an SEC East title in 2004 when Brent Schaeffer, Erik Ainge and Rick Clausen were first-year starters and shared time."
Worth a small play.
Thoughts anyone?
