Game 4 - WCF - INFO

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Since 2005, teams that are on at least a five-game winning streak entering Game 4 with an opportunity to sweep are 26-11 SU and 20-15-2 ATS. The Warriors have been in this spot six times and are 4-2 SU and ATS, with their two losses coming against the Cavaliers and Rockets.

Remember the very profitable first-half trend on the Blazers in Game 3? Well, that angle disappears when teams go down 0-3 at home in Game 4. Those teams are 29-25-1 (53.7%) against the first-half spread. Compare that to the 79-38-1 (67.5%) record in Game 3s when teams are down just 0-2.

The one first-half trend going in the Blazers? favor? In the regular season and playoffs under Terry Stotts, Portland is 43-28-1 (60.6%) against the first-half spread at home after losing at home in its previous game. Stotts is the second-most profitable coach in the Bet Labs database in this spot behind just George Karl.

The Blazers blew a 13-point halftime lead in Game 3 and are now down 0-3 to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. What should bettors expect from Portland on the verge of being swept? Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 21-41 SU and 25-34-3 ATS in Game 4.

Closeout games have been definitive: There have been 18 different potential series closeout games
in the conference finals in the L6 seasons and outright winners are 18-0 ATS.

Golden State 3Q VS PORTLAND 17-3-1

 

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Projections call for the Blazers to score at least 111 points, make at least 37% of their three-point shots, and have a minimum of six more offensive rebounds than the Warriors. In past home games where the Blazers have met or exceeded these performance measures has delivered a 31-2 SU record for 94% wins and 27-6 ATS for 82% and covered the spread by an average of 11.6 points since 1995.

When the Warriors have been on the road and have allowed a minimum of these performance measurers to an opponent, they have gone 7-35 SU for 17% and 12-30 ATS for 71.4% and failed to cover the spread by an average of 8.7 points.

This situational money line query has earned a 38-15 mark good for 72% wins since 1995 and instructs us to play on home underdogs that are off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving both teams having win percentages between 60 and 75% on the season.

 

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Portland has been steamed in the 1Q and 1H
Game line has moved but not flipped like 1Q and 1H