gameplan

[IE]

just curious.....

when you as a handicapper go into a particular sports investment session (golf/nhl/nfl/nba/ etc etc), do you have a sorta gameplan laid-out for the season that you stick too for certain point no matter what ........or do you swing it week to week and abandon all previous research you have done if things are not falling to plan and do a search and rescue?

just getting conversation going on this, nothing else....

 

[dawgball]

This may sound really dumb, but my goal each week is to break even using a 2 unit system. I rarely use 2 units throughout a season (I think I had 2-3 plays in college FB where I bet 2 units), so it is basically a set wager amount on each game. Each week, whether up or down the previous, starts a whole new slate. I find myself less condusive to chasing or raising my limits if I do it like this.

Gambling is a recreational hobby for me. If I can fund an account one time and never re-up or withdrawal, I would consider it a huge success. I really don't even know why I actually gamble. I really have no plan to withdraw (I guess I will eventually), so I could play on an Excel sheet for the same effect. I guess it's just to see if I can beat the system.

 

[IE]

interesting dawgball, thanks for the feedback....

 

[IE]

dawgball, if you found something in the sports investments biz that would give you a return of say....23-25% per annum......would you take it serioulsy?(sp).......i guess what im asking at what point do you give of your hobby to turn it into a serious investment if you found it?

 

[IE]

i also, must add that this question too you is kinda double-sworded since you are a successful buisness(sp) person......and this game will not break you....

but my point is i guess, at what junction if you found an edge over k/w or whoever......do you take it seriusly(sp).

thanks

 

[Nick Douglas]

I go in with a weekly game plan similar to dawgball. I used to go in with a seasonal game plan, but in my opinion handicapping is too fluid these days. What works one month might not work as well the next so I want to be able to adjust if dogs are looking better than faves one month but the next month the opposite is true.

 

[IE]

ok, thanks Nick......

so your saying what you belived in cannot be trusted even though you reseached it thoughly?...moneymaker makes adjustments, but to what degree?

 

[Nick Douglas]

IE,

Maybe I kind of misspoke. I have a set of guidelines based on research that I do trust, but I just may not use all of them every week or every month.

For instance, in hockey totals I think it is pretty well accepted that special teams scoring is a good indicator of a total going over or under a lot of the time. The problem is determining when those special teams goals will come. Earlier in the season I noticed that teams tended to be hot & cold. So if a team had a drop in penalty killing 2 games in a row, I would look for that to continue in the 3rd game. Two teams matched up that both fit that would be an over play.

Earlier in the season I relied more heavily on that but now I am relying more heavily on, say, injuries to defensemen and a drop in shot totals to find an under. What I'm saying is that the principles of what works stay the same, but how strongly I use each principle to handicap a play might vary from month to month.

 

[IE]

ok, i understand.....thanks and good luck tonight.

 

[Square Gambler]

Currently down 624(-12.48%) based on 5000 BR for 04. Will simply stick to the %'s and ride it out. Chasing used to kill me when i first started out 10 years ago. When i think of chasing I remember the time I was 19 and was down 2,300 going into Monday night. So I played GB -4 over TB for 2200-2000. Well BG won by 3. And on Thursday morning it was sickening having to withdraw 4,500 cash out of my savings account all in $100 bills to pay the man. All this while in College and making a measely $8 per hour.I still to this day think about it like it happened yesterday whenever im down early and am looking for some late night action. it helps to keep my %'s within reason.

I've tried various types of % plays over the last 12 months, and what I've found to work best is to use a set BR amount per given month. Instead of fluctuating on a daily basis. Ive set goals of 10% each month and when i reach it i may drop most wagers to 1-2% for the rest of the month. It has worked well so far. 03 was +79%. And yes I do take this very seriously. I look at this as a long term investment. I treat my monies offshore as a group of mutual funds or stocks basically. At the end of every month I tally up my w/l 's units +/-, ROI and compare what the goals were I had set. Since this is money set aside for Sport Investing purposes only Ill just keep it offshore and adjust accordingly each month and at the end of the year as I did in 04. When 04 started i debated on making my BR 5 or 9 dimes. I decide on the 5 and just took the 4 and put it into a 24 month call account for my son at 4.9% Im sure I could have done other things with it. But by the time my sons 18 Ill need about half a mil to pay for his education LOL.

I definitely think a gameplan is needed if ya wanna be successful. Without it i doubt most would know whether they were actually UP or DOWN what they really are. It also helps to keep your MM in perpesctive.

Excuse the run-ons IE, was never good in English took me about 2 years to finally learn how to write it when i got to this country

 

[IE]

no apologies needed at all Antonio,good writeup , thanks....

 

[dawgball]

IE -- Probably the main thing that keeps me from moving this from hobby to Investment with expected return is the amount of work that I dedicate to it. I, by no means, expect to lose money when gambling or I would not have it as a hobby, but I also do not put in the amount of effort needed to upgrade it from a hobby.

IE Question: dawgball, if you found something in the sports investments biz that would give you a return of say....23-25% per annum......would you take it serioulsy?(sp).......i guess what im asking at what point do you give of your hobby to turn it into a serious investment if you found it?

I would, most certainly, treat this more seriously. Once again, my amount of effort has not turned up that type of return.

IE Question: at what junction if you found an edge over k/w or whoever......do you take it seriusly(sp).

I don't understand this. What is k/w?

My other plan that I did not mention is watching your plays on the free picks page!

 

[IE]

Thanks for the response Dawgball, i understand totally. Myself i am going to have to go back to the drawing board in concern to "College" Sports and see why this past year has been so dreadful compared to other years using the methods i involve in handicapping....just cannot get a handle on CFB and CBB at all...time to do more research...

Forget about the k/w reference, not pertainent...sorry about that.


Good Luck the rest of 2004 and thanks for checking out IE's page.