- Nov 30, 2005
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Here's a post from another site that I thought would be good for discussion and a good reason to think GB goes all the way.....
Packers at Cardinals
Let's take a look at a few things...................
First, the "key stat battles" and how often each team won them.
Each time a team out-plays it's opponent on the field and wins a "key stat battle" it increases it's chances of winning the game.
Example, the turnover battle, each game a team wins the turnover battle it increases that teams chances to win the game. Packers won a league leading and quite amazing 12-2-2 . Zona, a very mediocre 6-6-4.
Packers won 69% of the 5 "key stat battles", which lead the entire league.
Zona won 58%
When the road team is a minimum of 5% better than the home team it's covered the spread 80% of the time since 1978 the first year of the 16 game shcedule.
The Packers become just the 3rd wild card team to lead the league.
The other 2 teams, 97 Denver, 4-0 ATS in the postseason and won the SB.
2000 Ravens, 4-0 ATS in the post season and won the SB.
Experience......... Will it play a role in the game ???
You bet it will, however, it will play a role quite a bit different than most expect.
First we need to look at a few stats..............
Total yards margin.... Packers out-gained opponents by 95 yards, the best of any playoff team. Zona was out-gained by they're opponents by a pathetically weak -2, worst of any playoff team.
Margin of victory...... Packers 10.2, 2cd best. Zona, a pathetically weak 3.1 , 2cd worst .
Ave gain per play margin ...... Packers 1 yard, Zona again pathetically weak .3
Here's a angle I've followed and bet successfully over many years in the NFL playoffs.......................................
When statistically weak teams do well in the postseason they are almost always surprise teams with "no expectations" and "no prior playoff success" such as Zona last season, and the 2007 G-men, the 2003 Panthers, and the 2001 Pats.
When a team with prior SB experience enters the postseason as a statistically weak team they rarely ever have postseason success.
Zona's "experience" actually works against them here, yep it's true.
I seen things being said about the Packers weak schedule and that the Packers aren't as good as they're stats appear becuase of they're weak schedule.
Will playing a weak schedule have an effect on the outcome of this game ???
You bet it will, however, the result might surprise many.
Zona played just 4 teams with winning records all season, the fewest of any team, Packers 7.
Zona's opponents won 49% of "the key stat battles"
Packers opponents won 50% of "the key stat battles"
Zona played the weaker schedule with just 4 games VS teams with winning records.
Here's the same angle I posted last season for my wild card's strongest play, Ravens over Miami.
When teams play weak statistically such as Zona has against weak opponents this season it almost always spells blow-out in the teams opening playoff game.
Last season this angle applied to Miami and they were rocked by the Ravens 27-9, a game I also called for a 17 pt or better win by the Ravens.
When a team plays dominate against a weak schedule such as the Packers have, it's a good indicator of postseason success.
Add it all up folks and the Packers rock the Cards by 17 pts or more !!!!!!!!
Packers at Cardinals
Let's take a look at a few things...................
First, the "key stat battles" and how often each team won them.
Each time a team out-plays it's opponent on the field and wins a "key stat battle" it increases it's chances of winning the game.
Example, the turnover battle, each game a team wins the turnover battle it increases that teams chances to win the game. Packers won a league leading and quite amazing 12-2-2 . Zona, a very mediocre 6-6-4.
Packers won 69% of the 5 "key stat battles", which lead the entire league.
Zona won 58%
When the road team is a minimum of 5% better than the home team it's covered the spread 80% of the time since 1978 the first year of the 16 game shcedule.
The Packers become just the 3rd wild card team to lead the league.
The other 2 teams, 97 Denver, 4-0 ATS in the postseason and won the SB.
2000 Ravens, 4-0 ATS in the post season and won the SB.
Experience......... Will it play a role in the game ???
You bet it will, however, it will play a role quite a bit different than most expect.
First we need to look at a few stats..............
Total yards margin.... Packers out-gained opponents by 95 yards, the best of any playoff team. Zona was out-gained by they're opponents by a pathetically weak -2, worst of any playoff team.
Margin of victory...... Packers 10.2, 2cd best. Zona, a pathetically weak 3.1 , 2cd worst .
Ave gain per play margin ...... Packers 1 yard, Zona again pathetically weak .3
Here's a angle I've followed and bet successfully over many years in the NFL playoffs.......................................
When statistically weak teams do well in the postseason they are almost always surprise teams with "no expectations" and "no prior playoff success" such as Zona last season, and the 2007 G-men, the 2003 Panthers, and the 2001 Pats.
When a team with prior SB experience enters the postseason as a statistically weak team they rarely ever have postseason success.
Zona's "experience" actually works against them here, yep it's true.
I seen things being said about the Packers weak schedule and that the Packers aren't as good as they're stats appear becuase of they're weak schedule.
Will playing a weak schedule have an effect on the outcome of this game ???
You bet it will, however, the result might surprise many.
Zona played just 4 teams with winning records all season, the fewest of any team, Packers 7.
Zona's opponents won 49% of "the key stat battles"
Packers opponents won 50% of "the key stat battles"
Zona played the weaker schedule with just 4 games VS teams with winning records.
Here's the same angle I posted last season for my wild card's strongest play, Ravens over Miami.
When teams play weak statistically such as Zona has against weak opponents this season it almost always spells blow-out in the teams opening playoff game.
Last season this angle applied to Miami and they were rocked by the Ravens 27-9, a game I also called for a 17 pt or better win by the Ravens.
When a team plays dominate against a weak schedule such as the Packers have, it's a good indicator of postseason success.
Add it all up folks and the Packers rock the Cards by 17 pts or more !!!!!!!!
