GB / Philly line ?!?!

[GM]

4:45 pm (FOX) NFL Divisional Playoffs
109 Green Bay Packers 43
110 Philadelphia Eagles -3? -115

WTF??? Is Philly never going to get any respect? I am not buying into this "destiny" crap. GB got their win, but man.... I was expecting something in the range of Philly -7?.

I'm shocked and stumped.

And it looks like I am going to continue to take favorites all playoffs long. LOL :lol:

 

[mode the lode]

IM A HUGE PLILLY AND MCNAB FAN(my daughter graduated with mcnab) I WATCHED MANY OF HIS HOME COL. GMES HE IS SPECIAL


I THINK THE LINE IS CORRECT,YOU KNOW THE PUBLIC SQUARES ARE ON GB

 

[JEFF]

Wow, -3'?


First instinct is to buy the hook and lock and load on Philly. You're right, the Eagles getting no respect here.

 

[bombercoops]

Like it alot personally considering how fresh the eagles should be after the week off. Loading up early on this one after a tease to 2.5. Looking for philly to go a step further this year.

 

[GM]

The line's already moved to -5. Clearly a mistake by the linesmaker. I have no idea what they were thinking.

 

[Penguinfan]

In all honesty I had this line at 5, don't see how that is not respecting Philly.

 

[JEFF]

PenguinFan-- Did you not see where he said it was 3', not five?

 

[gman2]

not sure how anyone can lay points with a team that cant stop the run. green gashed philly the first time around. philly has had trouble all yr in that dept. lean to gb for now. nothing strong though. philly a well-coached team but simply cannot be in a hurry to lay pts with a team very deficient in such a key area. hell, san fran did whatever they wanted on the ground 2 weeks ago

 

[mjalam]

i think the line is right on the money...give philly a dose of green and favre will throw on them all day

 

[GM]

There's a HUGE difference between 3? and 5 IMO.

Maybe 7? is a stretch, but I don't think 7 would be unfair. BIG advantage to the bye teams in the next round to start with. Philly has gotten progressively better as the season has gone on, with the exception of one little blip (loss in OT to SF). Offence is clicking well. Aside from that SF game they have won every home game since Week 8 by 7 pts or more. They won IN GB on a night when Donovan really didn't have his best stuff at all. I really feel the Eagles are the class of the NFC.

Combination of Westbrook being doubtful / out and all the Brett Favre's dad stuff keeps the line lower than 7 I guess. I see that GB has put up some big wins in recent weeks, but they played some pretty mediocre opposition (Chi, @ SD, @ Oak, vs Denver resting almost all their key players, and now OT to scrape by Sea).

I'm willing to be talked out of it if I'm wrong!

 

[gardenweasel]

if this hits 6

if this hits 6

i`m on the packers.....terrible run defense with philly.....and i`ve never,ever liked philly as a home favorite....they`ve played a little better this year at home,but,if it hits 6,i buy to 7..........

and i have a philly in the super bowl prop at decent odds....

just like gb as a dog and don`t like philly as a fave.........

6 or 7 is enough to take gb,imo....


btw....i think the real questionable club in the playoffs is the rams.....don`t like them at all....

 

[GM]

OK. I'm surprised at this. I respect you guys, I know the guys who have replied in this thread know their stuff. I will give it some more thought. You know I am not a Throw It Down kind of guy. But when you see a line that you feel is that far off, you either can see something that others can't, or you've overlooked something.... :shrug:

Gonna look into the run D aspect of it since that came up a couple times.

 

[yyz]

Philly is shit against the run. I think this will be a close game, and would probably take the points.

Favre has been very lucky the last three weeks with his "fling and hope" passing style. Nobody seems to want to bting that up. In Oaklnad, every TD pass he had could have been easily picked. If that had happened, it would be the same old song and dance about "Flingin' Favre".

Being able to run the ball keeps Favre in a little better position. I don't think that the Pack is a team of destiny, but I do think they will be in this game until the end, just like Seattle was today.

 

[Gmarco]

Being a die-hard eagles fan, I think the over is the play. Both teams can score in the 20's and McNabb & Favre will air it out. My only concern is the weather report. There is talk of snow later in the week.

 

[gman2]

normally i dont even bother paying attention to stats in the nfl. but rushing offense/defense is a key at any level of football. tons of rushing dogs cashed over the last few weeks in the college bowls alone.

havent checked recently, but i believe green bay is in the top 3 in rushing offense in the nfl whereas philly is like #24 or something against the run. its pretty significant.

if you look at the teams from #20 to #30 in the nfl in run defense, i think philly and st.louis are the only two playoff teams. good teams -- especially championship caliber teams -- are strongest in the most vital area of football -- the run game. philly just too weak in that dept to lay points with.

its not that i dont think philly is capable of winning. but green bay should control the clock there, just like frisco did vs philly a few weeks ago. ahman green ran for close to 200 yds in the 1st meeting as well

 

[mjalam]

by no means do i mean that green bay will kill them or even beat them, but i think they can keep it within a field goal at least

 

[GM]

gman -

Why would you be afraid to lay pts with the Eagles? They were 11-5 ATS this year.... after starting the season 1-4 ATS! Lost by 3 getting 4? @ GB ... didn't cover against SF...that's it, they covered everything else. And laid pts more often than not.

I too am not a big stats kind of handicapper. I got away from getting heavy into the numbers because I found they always swayed me the wrong way. (Actually, in most cases I found comparing rushing and passing stats just pushed me towards taking the favorite...the opposite of the situation here).

 

[A1Capper]

They won IN GB on a night when Donovan really didn't have his best stuff at all. I really feel the Eagles are the class of the NFC.

McNabb...... 15/31..... 191..... 1td, 0 int
Favre ..........14/22...... 109..... 1td, 1int

GM, you are right, Mcnabb didnt have his best stuff, but Favre had even less of his good stuff, and he has MORE STUFF than McNabb! That is the part that would scare me if I were a Eagle backer on this one. Favre was ice cold, yet Philly had to come from behind and win on a last second td.

Green Bay won that game on stats, and just plain old outplayed Philly.

Since that game, Philly is 7-1, and GB is 8-1. both teams have peaked at the right time. I believe this line is right where it should be, and if it goes any higher, GB should get some serious consideration.

 

[gman2]

GM:

im the same way you are. i dont cap with numbers. 90% of my capping is based on feel. but running the ball and being able to stop the run is vitally important.

in terms of regular season ATS marks- throw em out the window
its a new season.

if you want to see something staggering, go look at how philly did against the run when they played GOOD rushing teams (carolina, new orleans, miami, green bay)

they got killed on the ground

i cant ignore that