general NFL question?

[bookkilla]

What are your thoughts about this season so far? Is it me or does it seem like the favorites and OVER's are winning more than ever? Is it wrong for me to play the dog's just for the sake that the books need help? I know of a local guy who said he is getting crushed this year. Hasn't had a winning week yet. Guys are pounding the favs and overs left and right. I know there is still 5 weeks left, but will the books catch up this year? Maybe its just me and my local guy? Just curious?

 

[GM]

It's definitely been a strange year. Oddly, I have favs and dogs dead even at 85-85 (plus 5 pushes and 1 Pick 'Em game). Favs have only covered more than dogs 4 weeks out of 12 so far... but they had a huge Week 11 (12-3-1). With the exception of that one week, there have been no fewer than 6 dog-covers, and no more than 9, in any week this season (strange!!). It just seems it's different favs that are covering this year. I love taking dogs in the 3?-10 pt range...but this year they've been money burners. Seems it's either huge dogs or little (<3) that have been doing most of the covering.

The spread has come into effect less this year than in any year in the past eight that I've been tracking it. Thus far only 21 games out of 176 have been decided by the points alone (11.9%). Traditionally this figure is very close to the 16-17% mark (in fact it has never varied by more than 1% off those numbers in these past eight years until now). Why has this happened? I have no idea. Just standard mathematical deviation I guess.

Also strangely, I have Unders outperforming Overs 89-86-1, even though it DOES seem like Overs are ruling. I think when games are going Over, they are just going WAAAAAAY over now. Unders carried each of the first 5 weeks...fairly even week 6 & 7... Overs went 22-6 for weeks 8 & 9...Unders have swung back 27-19 the past 3 weeks. Average scoring has definitely come up as the season has gone on. The first 4 weeks all averaged less than 39 PPG. Since then only one week has averaged less than 41.5 PPG (Week 11).

I've altered my strategy in a HUGE way this year after getting my ass kicked for the first 6 weeks. I've started to play more favs that I normally wouldn't play, cut back on the # of plays I make, and concentrated more on totals, which I feel I am stronger on. So far it's working. No point in being stubborn...you gotta adapt to what's going on now as I see it.

 

[bookkilla]

GM, AWESOME info my friend. Obviously, I wasn't looking at the stats like you provided. You got me thinking when you said, "when the games go over, they go over bigtime". I guess that was the image that was stuck in my head. I too have changed my ways a little bit. I'll admit it, I'm more of a chalk player... I have broadened my selections more and play way more dogs and unders than I ever have. For me, I usually give everything back during bowl season... This year, I'm for sure gonna tread lightly. Just looked over all my plays for the month of November... hit about 53% of my selections for +50.1 units. Only wish I had the bankroll to move the decimal point over for my unit. But oh well, a little money is better than no money.

 

[The Jets Fan]

Seems to me the primetime games are all going over.Sunday and Monday nights have been shootouts. Any Stats available on that GM ?

 

[GM]

Yup...give me 5 mins I'll have them up for you....

 

[GM]

I have Sunday Nights going Over 6 times, Under 5. (One week there was no SNF game).

Week 1 - Den 34, KC 24 (Over 48)
Week 2 - Cin 16, Mia 13 (Under 40?)
Week 3 - Oak 30, TB 20 (Over 35)
Week 4 - StL 24, SF 14 (Under 44)
Week 5 - Balt 17, Wash 10 (Under 34)
Week 6 - Minn 38, NO 31 (Over 52?)
Week 7 - No game
Week 8 - Chi 23, SF 13 (Over 35?)
Week 9 - Balt 27, Clev 13 (Over 35)
Week 10 - NE 29, Buf 6 (Under 38)
Week 11 - GB 16, Hou 13 (Under 51)
Week 12 - Oak 25, Den 24 (Over 41? - *snow line*)

Wow, looking at that list, there have been a lot of really crappy games on SNF this year. Not many exciting memories from that batch!

Mondays are a little more "Over", going 8-4...after starting off with 2 Unders....

Mondays:

Week 1 - GB 24, Car 14 (Under 43)
Week 2 - Phil 27, Minn 16 (Under 49)
Week 3 - Dal 21, Wash 18 (Over 35?)
Week 4 - KC 27, Balt 24 (Over 41)
Week 5 - Tenn 48, GB 27 (Over 44)
Week 6 - StL 28, TB 21 (Over 42)
Week 7 - Cin 23, Den 10 (Under 43?)
Week 8 - NYJ 41, Mia 14 (Over 35)
Week 9 - Indy 31, Minn 28 (Over 58)
Week 10 - Phil 49, Dal 21 (Over 43?)
Week 11 - NE 27, KC 19 (Under 53?)
Week 12 - GB 45, StL 17 (Over 51)

 

[Houston Gambler]

Good work,GM

 

[thepoolguy]

If you had teased Indy over every week...automatic.

 

[THE KOD]

I wonder if the unders are going to catch up in the coming
five weeks that are left.

 

[ScreaminPain]

Awsome info GM!!

I use my own worksheets to make a line. If the line deviates from the posted line, then I delve further and sometimes come up with a bet, but it could go either way...dog or fav! It does'nt make a difference to me which, unless I see a ML bet brewing.

This time of year, the lines start to get really tight. Vegas has a good feel for the teams and I find myself using teams with a smaller and smaller deviation. I will start to look at teasers a little more, though I seldom tease.

This game is not easy and its not exact science. What works this year may not be any good next year.....

Any slight edge can be the difference

Good Luck on your action....

 

[jpblack34]

GM...any stats on Road Favs win/loss this year ats. This seems to be the one killing me this year. I loved home dogs until i was scratching felt this year. Just curious..JP

 

[coverman]

We have been same boat I always take home dog and its killed me this year. The last 2 weeks in Nfl for sure. Vegas has got killed past two weeks in pros. My local 20 years in Business never got beat this bad in football season. Greenbay and over didn't help last night.

 

[The Jets Fan]

Thanks GM

 

[GM]

No problem guys.

GM...any stats on Road Favs win/loss this year ats. This seems to be the one killing me this year. I loved home dogs until i was scratching felt this year. Just curious..JP

Yes - See the other thread I started today titled "Cover rates through Week 12" - this is covered in there. And yes, home dogs have not been profitable this year. My bread and butter is home dogs getting more than a FG but less than 10 usually...but this year that category has been awful.

 

[jpblack34]

Thanks GM..will check it out. JP

 

[bombercoops]

Give me a call if you want some winners black! j/k!