Thought the write up from Gold Sheet was well thought out...
TEAMS
Alabama Georgia
GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
12 11-1 5-7 36 12 255 188 55-34-19 91 170 16-8-7 +12 9.5 4.3
13 12-1 10-3 36 16 266 173 59-38-20 130 163 23-8-14 +5 6.2 3.
CFP title game Monday, January 8 at Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Well, we finally get this matchup that we were expecting to see in the SEC title game at this same Mercedes Benz Stadium venue five weeks ago! Gus Malzahn?s feisty Auburn, however, disrupted those plans with a 26-14 Iron Bowl win over Alabama at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Nov. 25 to send the Tigers, and not the Crimson Tide, to the conference championship tilt the following week at Atlanta. A revenge-fueled Georgia, beaten soundly three weeks earlier by Malzahn?s team, earned its payback with a 28-7 win and set up the eventual possibility of an all-SEC finale in the playoff. Meanwhile, Bama, tops in the rankings all season until the Auburn upset, still managed to squeeze into the Final Four and proved it belonged in last Monday?s thumping win over Clemson at the Sugar Bowl. It?s worth noting that Nick Saban?s last three Bama national title winners (2011, 2012, & 2015) also had one regular-season defeat; only Saban?s first Tide championship squad in 2009 accomplished the feat as an undefeated team.
Saban?s fingerprints, as usual, are all over the SEC these days and in the title game with Bulldog counterpart Kirby Smart having served as the Tide defensive coordinator for an eight-season span (2008-15) before succeeding Mark Richt in Athens. The latest from the Saban coaching tree to plant seeds elsewhere in the SEC is current d.c. Jeremy Pruitt, Smart?s successor two years ago who will be taking the top job at Tennessee after this game. The Saban links in the title game also extend to super-agent Jimmy Sexton, who will consider this matchup a feather in his cap while representing both the ?Nick-tator? and Smart.
Speaking of feathers in the cap, this Paul Finebaum-fest in the title game is also one of those for the SEC, with an all-league final in what was generally considered an off-year in the loop. Bowl results elsewhere suggest as much, as favored Auburn and LSU sides both lost on New Year?s Day, while the likes of Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Missouri had earlier dropped their bowl games as well. (Mississippi State and South Carolina were the only other SEC postseason winners.) Almost all regional insiders would confirm the league being down as a whole, though with a few exceptional teams (Bama and Georgia, and perhaps Auburn, the only real elite entries in 2017) in the mix, confirmed by Monday's playoff results.
Interestingly, there is not much recent series history between these sides, in separate SEC divisions, and not annual ?crossover? foes (for the Tide that would be Tennessee; for the Dawgs, it?s Auburn). The most- recent meeting was in 2015, when Saban?s last national title team helped hasten Richt?s Georgia exit with a 38-10 romp ?tween the hedges at Sanford Stadium. Prior to that, the teams met in an epic 2012 SEC title clash at the old Georgia Dome, with the winner to earn a spot in the national title game vs. Notre Dame. The Tide held on, barely, 32-28, with Georgia QB Aaron Murray having the Dawgs threatening inside the red zone in the final moments.
An eventual collision between these SEC entries looked inevitable for most of the campaign, though it was a more bumpy ride than usual for a Saban Bama team. Perhaps because of a slew of injuries that severely depleted the Tide defense (especially the LB corps) and helped turn a couple of road trips to Texas A&M and Mississippi State into unexpected harrowing experiences. Then came the Iron bowl loss at Auburn. Along the way Bama covered just 2 of its last 7, and 4 of its last 11, vs. the spread. The offense did not always move smoothly, and while QB Jalen Hurts (only one pick) famously avoided mistakes, his downfield accuracy often left much to be desired while his TD passes dropped from 23 a year ago to just 15 in 2017. Hurts has also passed for more than 200 yards in only two games this season. Still, the Tide scored 39 ppg, and a multi-headed rushing attack ranked 8th nationally led by slashing jr. Damien Harris (906 YR & 8.2 ypc) and slamming 235-lb. Bob Scarbrough (5.1 ypc). Plus the elusive Hurts, who added another 768 YR.
Meanwhile, Georgia?s arrival did not completely surprise many SEC onlookers who suspected that the Dawgs could improve upon LY?s 8-5 mark in Smart?s debut. With all 11 starters back from a ?D? that ranked 16th nationally, and sr. RBs Nick Chubb (hampered by injuries in the past) and Sony Michel deciding to return rather than enter last April?s NFL draft, as most had anticipated, many expected a resurgence in Athens. The offense, choppy a year ago as ballyhooed true frosh QB Chad Eason adjusted to the college game, made a significant jump even after the touted Eason went down with a knee injury in the opener vs. App State. This year?s blue-chip frosh QB, Jake Fromm, was thus thrown into the fray and endured an early baptism by fire with his first start at Notre Dame on Sept. 9. But Georgia and Fromm survived that trip to South Bend, and the frosh would end up tossing 23 TDP and just 5 picks. Over his last four games, including the Rose Bowl win over Oklahoma, the poised Fromm completed better than 70% of his passes while tossing 7 TDP and 1 pick. Not to mention maintaining his cool against the Sooners after the Dawgs would fall behind 31-14, though it would be a combined 326 YR and 5 TDs from RBs Michel and Chubb that keyed the comeback win vs. Baker Mayfield and OU.
We do not expect the title game to resemble last Monday?s back- and-forth Rose Bowl shootout, in which Georgia?s 4th-ranked ?D? needed an entire half to adjust to the fast pace and quick-strike ability of the Mayfield-led Sooner attack. Alabama figures to set a more- deliberate tempo, as it was happy to do in the grinding 24-6 Sugar Bowl win over Clemson. A healthier Tide ?D? put the clamps on Tiger QB Kelly Bryant, sacked five times and rarely having time to look downfield while spending most of the night bottled up in the pocket, as a Dabo Swinney-coached team gained less than 200 yards for only the third time in nine seasons. The Bama defense also scored the clinching TD on an 18-yard interception return late in the 3rd Q by soph LB Mack Wilson. Even with its many injuries during the regular season, the Tide stop unit ranked first nationally overall (just 257 ypg) and vs. the rush (just 94 ypg) with its usual bevy of NFL-bound playmakers. That platoon is led by the hard-hitting safety combo of jrs. Minkah Fitzpatrick (Bednarik and Thorpe Award winner) and leading- tackler jr. S Ronnie Harrison, emerging soph DT Raekwon Harris (team- best 81⁄2 sacks), plus the aforementioned LB Wilson, one of those sidelined for a stretch at midseason but now contributing again. Key OLB Anfernee Jennings could miss the finale with a knee injury suffered in the Sugar Bowl, but the Pruitt ?D? has excellent depth and merely reloads, as was the case during the regular season.
Among the challenges for Smart and o.c. Jim Chaney will be too loosen the Tide ?D? enough with Chubb and Michel to give Fromm a chance to look downfield. Bama has feasted upon offenses such as Clemson?s last week that did not dare to stretch the field. While Fromm has improved as the season has progressed, Georgia does not have a receiver who gained better than 50 yards per game, though wideouts Javon Wims and Terry Godwin gained better than 17 yards and hauled in 12 TDs on their combined 67 catches. Yet, since Michel and/or Chubb are not likely to run wild on the Saban ?D? as they did vs. Oklahoma, there will be more pressure on the freshman Fromm to make plays. On the other hand, no Bama opponent shut down the powerful Tide infantry, and while Bama?s ?O? has struggled vs defenses with size and speed combinations like that of Georgia, the Tide, in the best Saban fashion, rarely beats itself, guilty of only 9 giveaways all season, the second-best mark in the nation.
Fundamental considerations suggest a lower-scoring game, but the biggest advantage might be that of Saban himself, participating in his third straight championship tilt and on the verge of his fifth national title (which
(CFP Title Game continued on next page)
KEY TO PLAYOFF STATS: Statistics include all 2017 games played vs. CKO Stat Teams. GP-Number of games played. SUR-Straight-up Wins and Losses. PSR-Pointspread Wins and Losses. Ties are not listed in SUR and PSR records. PF & PA-Average points for & against. YR-Average yards rushing. YP-Average yards passing. T-R-P-Total TDs (including TDs via kick returns, fumble recoveries, possession through turnovers), Rushing TDs and Passing TDs. YPT DIFF-Yards Per Point Differential. (difference between offensive yards per point scored and defensive yards per point allowed). OPR- Average Gold Sheet Power Rating (at the time they met) of all Stat Service teams played. P-Pick Game. Home team in CAPS. Offensive averages listed first.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF TITLE GAME
ALABAMA (12-1) vs. GEORGIA (13-1)
Monday, January 8 Night at Atlanta, Georgia (Artificial Turf)
THE GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP ...cont'd from page 6
would be his fourth with the Tide, and another in 2003 at LSU) . While Smart seems to be doing ?everything Bama? at Athens and appears poised for a long and successful run at his alma mater, keep in mind that this is still a teacher vs. student matchup, and Saban is 11-0 SU in his career vs. his former assistant coaches! Smart will have more opportunities to get in the winner?s circle in the coming years. But likely not on Monday night in Atlanta.
(15-Alabama +1 38-10 u51'...SR: Alabama 38-25-4)
TGS Predicted score: ALABAMA 24 - Georgia 14
