Giants/ Niners

[JEFF]

Like the Giants here for very simple reasons: This line was set at 2.5 for a reason, to suck in niner backers. Lot of sqaures will be betting on this game, and Vegas knows it. Now the line is up to 4.5 at some places. Oce again I'll gladly side with the books.

NYG +4.5, 3 units

An interesting concensus from Wagerline:

Consensus San Francisco 745 Ny Giants 304

Thats all I need to know. GLTA.

 

[JEFF]

Not the prettiest win, but I'll take any win to start the season.

BTW, NYG unders look like they could be hitting all year long. Shockey is a nice weapon but this seems a team destined to stall out inside the 35 or so.


YTD: 1-0, +2.7 units

 

[GM]

Interesting night. The squares got battered, but the books got middled and got killed too. Only winners were Giants backers (unless they jumped on it early....ouch) and the middlers/sharpies who made a killing.

 

[JEFF]

Yeah, GM, great point. I went back and forth for several minutes at halftime on whether to go for the middle on the halftime line, but didn't pull the trigger like I shoulda.

Nothing worse than giving away profit on a game you capped correctly, just because you're trying to double-dip at halftime.

 

[GM]

Hey Jeff,

You're talking about middling the full game line with the 2H line? I LOVE doing that. (Actually, I prefer to do it more with totals than I do with sides).

Ya, you throw away some winners doing it, but after a while you get used to that. You also sometimes save your ass by winning the 2nd leg of it. You've only got to hit a middle 1 time in 20 to break even, and in the 2 years that I've been selectively doing it I find I hit on about 1 in 8. So it's a pretty big money maker if you pick the right spots.

 

[JEFF]

Its a nice insurance policy and is oh so sweet when it hits, but I find that when I do it I end up ruining what would have been a win, and just losin gthe juice.

You;re right that statiscally speakin, it has great great value. But its easy to psyche yourself out on those. That said, I should have done it tonight -- perfect opportunity as a SF FG win seemed inevitable.

 

[GM]

I didn't even think about doing it tonight. Must have had something to do with the QB1 game, the beer, and the free halftime buffet. When the half rolled around I was more concerned about being near the front of that line.