Gimmie your thoughts on this........

[yyz]

When betting on "streaking teams" in the NFL, do you think you get a better edge backing a winning team, or fading a loser?

Or:

Would you be more likely to think teams like Green Bay and St Louis keep rolling, or teams like the Skins keep drowning?

Personally, I think winning breeds success, and losing teams keep finding a way to lose, in every aspect of life.

Let me hear from you guys on this.

 

[buddy]

All things being equal, some might say it would depend on the the most recent performances of the competition.

Others might look at the role of the favorite...How have they performed as a Home fav, Road fav...

 

[hawk3675]

would you bet on a team who covers 95% of the time or a team who covers 50%? point being if a team is on roll why in the world would you not stay on them. example, gb is on a roll, farve looks better now than last 2-3yrs, i think this line is bassackwards and will make a strong play on gb+3. example detroit (my home team) (sucks to be me) how in hell could you lay on them!

 

[pepin46]

yyz

you pretty much asked the question and gave the answer:

in the never ending process of game selection, which other teams will take precedence over green bay, san diego, wash and ariz, which are heavily weighted on their winning/losing and ats performance, and also reflect a strength/weakness beyond that which is recognized by the lines, as per their performances?

the lines this week, as most others, are based on expectations of game performance and betting patterns, so do the lines at tampa and clev. reflect more on the betting that expected performance? i think they do.

how many guys do we all know that will be betting against a winning streak or a losing streak? many, judging by what i read here.

i certainly won't. at the worst, a pass, but not bet against them.

pep

 

[yyz]

pep,

It's better that I give the answer sometimes!

I get a little scared when I see the Packers at +3 to open. Just like so many people out there, I said, "Holy shit!"

The guys who make these lines, don't pull the numbers outta their ass! I am looking at this game, but still can't see the reason for that line. I hate to over-think a game, but this one will get some serious peeks over and over from me.

 

[pepin46]

what worse situation than last week, when g.b. was supposed to be looking forward to tampa and the hilton came in at 55% for green bay?

i took a hard swallow and stuck with my guns. otherwise it could have been total disaster at the contest, never mind my bets.

i don't know, say they came out with gb -2 1/2, would that have created a green bay stampede, or a complete lobsided bet for tampa bay?

djv, a staunch gb supporter, had reservations about g.b. last week and more so now that they have run up 3 in a row. is that kind of thinking the basis for tb -3? is that number the equalizer for bets?

regardless of what the answers are, the stage is set, and i will back green bay as part of my selection process. there are not too many games out there where i can feel as confident with my pick, so this one is in.

this is a situation like with denver last week. i picked them and had no regrets. it just did not work out as expected. in a similar situation, i would do it over again.

wish i could say the same for my cinci pick. that really made me sick in retrospect. it should have been a pass at best.

pep

 

[redsfann]

Another thing to consider is the reason for a line of Tampa Bay -3.
Vegas wants equal play on both sides of this number-- so that they see a profit from the juice. A pointspread is in no way an indication of one team's ability to cover that particular number. It is mearly a starting point for Vegas to get equal action on both sides of a game.
Right now, I'm leaning heavily towards G.B. +3, but will be watching weather conditions and other things before Sunday A.M.

 

[yyz]

I understand all that Fann, but I am still shocked by the line. I am more stuned that it dipped slightly, and came right back to 3!

This would indicate that there is:

A) equal action on both teams
B) little action on the game yet

I challange anyone to make a case for the Bucs in this game.

Personally, I think the Packers should be favored. So, if they were a 2' point favorite, would the line have been bet to TB -3? I mean, since the line has went off of 3, and right back to it, that must be a good number, right?

I believe that the general public are idiots, and take whatever you sell them!

I believe that if the line opened at Green Bay -2' it would still be there!

That is my testement to the public. Average Joe, and his lunchbox buddies.

90% (and I have no idea about that number) of the people who wager, look at the spread, and then start to handicap the game.

WRONG!!!!

Handicap, and THEN look at the number!

If you look at that line, you hypnotize yourself into thinking one way or the other. When I came up with GB -2', that was what I thought the line would be when it came out. That was with my perception of the public, and equal action figured in. I thought the line should be Green Bay -4

I've done the handicapping, I've worked the math, and there is no flipping way that Tampa Bay should be a 3 point chalk! I will not be backed off of my numbers, here.

I saw no reason to not take them last week, and like this week even better.

If you can honestly tell me that an equal amount of people like both teams at TB -3, than I will tell you, again, that the public are idiots!



[This message has been edited by yyz (edited 10-04-2001).]