Gmo

[DOGS THAT BARK]

one early one just out @ Sportingbet
Choi -111 over Dean Wilson
Don't understand this line
We get MUCH better player with MUCH better current form and course form at pickem.

 

[sports student]

Have a question for everyone. I am going to be at the GMO Thursday and Friday. For those of you who have been at one of these, what have you learned or what should you look for that you can use for handicapping purposes? Obviously I am going mostly for vacation but it never hurts to learn something while your there. Thanks

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I'm gonna ride that one for more than I really should. Good luck and thanks for pointing that out.

Choi -111 over Wilson

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Kenny Perry to win 10/1 e.w. available generally
It is certainly unusual to see Kenny Perry heading the betting for a PGA Tour event and I would certainly not back him win-only, but his form in the past seven weeks has been quite staggering. He embarrassed the rest of the field for three days at the Colonial and the Memorial, which allowed him the luxury of lapses of concentration in the final round each time. He then finished 3rd in the U.S. Open and now returns to a course on which he has finished in the top-5 in each of the last three years. He has not played since Olympia Fields, but with any semblance of his May/June form, he should warrant the favourite's tag.

Tim Herron to win 25/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
'Lumpy' had a semblance of Perry's form back in February when he recorded back-to-back top-3 finishes and really should have won the Bob Hope Classic. He did finish 4th in the Honda Classic in March, but then struggled to find his game. His 14th place finish at the St. Jude Classic was his best finish since the Honda Classic. Not much support for his selection on current form, but his form had been comparable in the run-up to this event in the last two years and he finished in the top-3 on both occasions. Against this field, he should fancy his chances to repeat the feat.

Skip Kendall to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
It has been a lean couple of years for Kendall and he is an unlikely candidate for the outright market, but he has been showing good form recently. He finished 4th in the Buick Classic, having been the 3rd round leader alongside Kaye and Rollins, and was 13th in the Western Open last week. Like the other two selections, he has good course form - top-10 in four of his last five visits and top-15 in five of his last six - and while he is an unlikely winner, I was saying the same thing about Perry until a couple of months ago!

 

[rrc]

I believe...

I believe...

Kendall is one of the Wisconsin golfers on tour (Jerry Kelly is another), should play well in front of the home folks. Good luck.

 

[Clive]

SS
Have fun...not sure how much you can learn by attending events as opposed to tv watching...things I always do...

Spend a lot of time on range, and watch who just appears to hit and who is working with a coach and actually appears to be concentrating on an aspect of their game...some will use video.

I also like to watch those who spend time chipping and putting...think the putting green speaks volumes! Who is working hard and who is just warming up?

Have a good time

 

[milpalm]

Hayes and Herron for me. Hayes loves it here and was 80/1 with Sportingbet. Herron looks like a good bet at 25/1 given his play this year and his course history.

 

[sports student]

Thanks Clive. Have you ever watched someone warm up and called in a bet based on what you had seen ?

 

[Ian]

Certainly a course specialists event and the prices of those have been cut very quickly - managed to get a couple - Hayes 80 and Slu 33 - did leave Perry as I just couldn't back him at even the 14 that was briefly available - no surprise to see Roberts and Lowery play well either or even mr oldtimer Forsman - took the 70 on Betfair.

 

[crookycymru]

Dan Forsman to beat John Senden at 10/11 with William Hill

Going with Ian's 'old timer' here. He has been consistently ahead of Senden on tour this season, and while Senden has played some nice stuff in recent weeks, he has the disadvantage of having never played Great Deer Park. Forsman however, is a regualr here, and has never missed the cut. Having finshed just outside the top ten last year, he has to hold the edge over Senden this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outrights to place (top 5)
Choi 12/1 @ Skybet
Sindelar 13/1 @ 5 Dimes

Both decent current and course form and weak field.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Stephen Ames to beat Brenden Pappas -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Neither has made a cut in this event, but big difference in class between these two and Ames is far more likely to finally make it to the weekend this week. He has missed cut two cuts in his last nine events, but Pappas' early season form has disappeared and he has made four four of his last ten cuts. Ames leads 6-1-0 h2h over the past three months and should improve that stat this week.

Skip Kendall to beat Woody Austin -118 @ Centrebet
Siding again with Kendall who grew up playing on this course. Austin has been playing some solid golf late, but missed the cut last week after shooting 79 in the 2nd round and has finished behind Kendall in each of the last four years here.

K.J. Choi to beat Robert Damron -110 @ BetInternet
Siding with a player who missed the cut last week, but he had just come back from winning the SK Telecom Open on the Davidoff Tour the week before. His form is good and he finished 5th last year; he should beat Damron who will be playing his sixth event in six weeks, seven if you count the 36-hole U.S. Open qualifier at Woodmont. That's a tiring schedule!

Kenny Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -118 @ Centrebet
This is a widely available matchup, though Perry is priced as low as -155 (Olympic) and is generally a much heavier favourite than with Centrebet. Kelly did finish 3rd last week, but had missed his previous two cuts and the Wisconsin native does not have a good record on this course in the last three years. Will side with the tournament favourite again.

Joey Sindelar to beat Steve Stricker -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing another Wisconsin native here. Stricker may have a good record in this event, but he has missed ten of fifteen cuts this year and since his season-opening 18th place at the Phoenix Open, his best finish has been 42nd. In this course, he surely can't be competitive and Sindelar is favoured. He also has a good record on this course - four top-10 finishes in eight visits - and has been playing well in the past two months with four of five cuts made and a top-3 finish at the Buick Classic. No comparison in form.

 

[crookycymru]

Adding :

Tim Herron to beat Stephen Ames at 10/11 with Stan James

While you could contest that Ames has marginally the more consistent form on tour this season, their course form is incomparable. If you excused last weeks missed cut, Herron has been playing some pretty neat stuff, and must fancy his chances of going close again this year.
Herron came 2nd last year, and 3rd the year before that. Considering, that Ames has not played here since 1998 and 1999, where he missed the cut on both occasions, it is easy to wonder why he has bothered turning up at all.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes Forsman -115 over Peoples
14-4 advantage in matches this year and 3-1 adv on this course.

 

[sports student]

72 hole matchups

Herron +105 over Ames (365)
Herron +125 over Sluman (pinnacle)
Choi -110 over Mediate (pinnacle)
Perry -1/2 -138 over Sluman (sportingbet)
Triplett -1/2 -138 over Sutton (sportingbet)
Choi -1/2 -111 over Wilson (sportingbet)

Herron over Ames at 365 is a straight 30 cent line so tie will not lose. Got the Choi-Wilson bet in yesterday and I see it is not there anymore-DTB you might be putting some fear in them :grins:


1st round

Kelly-109 over Begay/Pavin (5 dimes)
Herron +115 over Browne/Senden (5 dimes)
Triplett -110 over Gamez/McGovern (365)

good luck

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I think the more logical reason is I do not see him in field anymore DRAT!.--a scratch!

 

[smoothie]

. . .

 

[sports student]

think Sportingbet knew they were in trouble and gave Wilson an offer he couldn't refuse lol :bigun:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd
Trip -120 over Gamez (-1/2stroke) @ WSEX

HUGE rating-course and current form edge to Trip.
In trying to figure WSEX's logic I can only assume they might be weighing Gamez before the cut scoring ave of 69.81 compared to Tripps 70.6 but if we look deeper most of Gamez's low scores have come in 2nd rd with his last 5 in 1st rd being 75-70-66-73-72 giving Tripp 69-70-71-67-69 a 2 stroke adv over his 1st rd scores last 5

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Skip Kendall(28/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
A course specialist that I suspect will have few tears shed for him in this forum if he suffers any deeper cuts.

Hal Sutton(35/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ 5 dimes
No recent course form to speak of, but it does not seem like Brown Deer Park should be an awkward fit. But I think he is tracking well and the extra angle this week is tied to the Ryder Cup captain's motivation to set the right tone while his future charges are beginning to flock in enemy territory.


Round 1 Lowest Score for 0.20* each @ 5 dimes:
Joey Sindelar(60/1)
David Peoples(50/1)

GL