Gold Cup soccer: Day 2 analysis and predictions

[Lumi]

Gold Cup soccer: Day 2 analysis and predictions



Group B looks like the most settled group before the games are played. The USA and Honduras will take the top two spots and the automatic berths in the quarterfinal. Grenada and Haiti will be fighting for third place and the hope of a wildcard quarterfinal place.

Saturday?s games are in Seattle. Temperatures are forecast around 70 degrees, with no rain called for.

HONDURAS (-1.5, -120) vs. HAITI

Honduras has players playing for clubs all over the world. They currently hold the last qualification spot in the regional World Cup qualifying (Mexico are in pursuit). Amado Guevara is missing from the Gold Cup roster but otherwise the team looks good. Honduras scalped Mexico 3-1 on April 1 and recorded home wins over Mexico, Canada, and Jamaica last autumn. Make no mistake, this team can play.

Haiti is only here because Cuba withdrew. Most of the squad plays domestically in what is essentially an amateur league. Goal scoring will be a problem. Only Fucien has ever scored more than five goals for his country.

This looks a little too easy, but we?ll take the Hondurans anyway on the spread. If you?re betting the straight win, don?t lay more than -375, just on principle.

Covers.com prediction: Honduras 2, Haiti 0

USA (-2.5, -125) vs. GRENADA

Unless Jason Roberts magically appears for Grenada (on the preliminary list; not on the official list, but one spot remains unfilled), this will be a completely amateur side. Grenada is going to get hammered at this tournament. If the USA beats them by four, they?ll be three-goal underdogs or more against Honduras.

The USA is sending a B-team to this competition. That could cost them if they don?t win this event. A trophy here on the heels of a surprising Confederations Cup run gives the Americans a legitimate shot at a No. 1 seed in the World Cup draw in December. Either way, even the current roster is far too much for Grenada on the road on the Fourth of July

Betting: The USA is the play; the question is by how much. At -3 you need plus money (+120?) to make it worth your while. At -2.5 you can lay up to -135. Three-way lines currently run at -1000 or shorter; -800 gets interesting.

Over on the total may be your better bet, but don?t count on Grenada to get more than ?a quarter of a goal?. Something ?proppy? like ?USA to shut out Grenada? at -250 is very appealing. (The terminology overseas is usually phrased as ?USA to keep a clean sheet?.)

A USA team total might also be worth doing, certainly over 1.5 laying less than -200, but that might be hard to find. Have a sniff around and pick up what you can while trying not to overpay. This game is a scavenger?s market.

*********** prediction: USA 3, Grenada 0

 

[Lumi]

Three key betting angles for the Gold Cup

Three key betting angles for the Gold Cup

Three key betting angles for the Gold Cup

The Gold Cup, the regional soccer championship for North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, kicks off in Los Angeles July 3. Here are three betting angles to keep in mind as we work our way through the group stage.

1. Know relative team strength

The food chain typically runs like this: North American countries on top (USA, Mexico, Canada), then the Central American strip, with the Islands at the bottom. Unfortunately it?s not that simple this time out.

The USA, fresh off the Confederations Cup, is sending the B-team. Only four players return from the Confederations Cup squad. Only Brian Ching has scored more than two goals for his country. Only six players have made more than 10 appearances for the USA.

Canada is sending just about the best team it can but the goalkeepers have little international experience.

Mexico is a team in flux and will have no player over the age of 30. Only Omar Bravo has scored more than five goals for Mexico and half the team has fewer than 10 national team appearances.

Guadeloupe, on the other hand, reached the 2007 semis and will be putting their very best foot forward again. Guadeloupe are ineligible for World Cup qualification, but this overseas French department has half their squad playing professionally in Europe and will be one of the better teams on paper.

2. Doubleheaders and field condition

With the exception of the final, every match will be part of a doubleheader. If the playing surface deteriorates as the first game is being played, sharp bettors will either jump on ?under goals? for Game 2 or at least make sure they?re flat to the total.

If the grass gets really bad, it?s probably dog-or-nothing on the handicap in the second game as well. A bad field is a serious leveler of talent.

3. Doubleheaders and correlated parlays

Nearly every major soccer tournament has its final round of matches in each group kick off simultaneously. Not the Gold Cup. The group finales are July 10-12 with each group playing a doubleheader. The result from the early match could change the entire flavor of the nightcap.

********** will try and point you in the right direction, but it?s often the early bird that gets the worm in these arrangements. Do your own work as soon as the second round of matches in each group wraps up. Ask yourself ?If the early game on the last day is won by X, what?s the most likely result in the late game?? Often times, given a specific early result, one team will be content to lose the nightcap, or the teams will arrange a draw.

This isn?t very sportsmanlike and most tournaments try to discourage it by starting games simultaneously. In the Gold Cup, it?s open season.