Have spent the last 3 days analysing all my golf bets for the last 3 years and have come up with some interesting stats which will definitely be altering the way I bet.The only tournaments I will bet from the outset will be those on the Senior Tour, the other 3 tours I will only bet on once the tournament has started with the exception of Major tournaments - which will be bet antepost.I will also add those events that are played on the Australian and South African Tours.
Golf Betting Analysis
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
I don't believe you....
I have always kept a yearly spreadsheet of my bets with columns for Start, 3rds to go, 2 rds to go, 1 rd to go and in-running final rd.
The 1rd (biggest stakes) then 2rds then in-running are the most consistently profitable ... 'Start' is mostly small stakes except larger bets on very occasional smaller priced bets (Els/Dubai).
My much maligned e/w doubles have played a valiant part.. but they don't always have to be placed at the start.
So although I reached the same conclusion ages ago and agree with your figures....
You don't have the will power not to place ANY bets at the start!!! Your trigger finger is too itchy!!!
I have always kept a yearly spreadsheet of my bets with columns for Start, 3rds to go, 2 rds to go, 1 rd to go and in-running final rd.
The 1rd (biggest stakes) then 2rds then in-running are the most consistently profitable ... 'Start' is mostly small stakes except larger bets on very occasional smaller priced bets (Els/Dubai).
My much maligned e/w doubles have played a valiant part.. but they don't always have to be placed at the start.
So although I reached the same conclusion ages ago and agree with your figures....
You don't have the will power not to place ANY bets at the start!!! Your trigger finger is too itchy!!!
Think this is a little too downbeat for my liking!
It has been a very difficult summer and those heady days towards the end of May when my yearly profit was huge seem a long way off now. But everybody (except Ian!) has found it hard to make a profit in the last couple of months...lost about ?4k on golf during that time, things picking up slightly now though.
Betting outright on golf is always going to involve long losing runs, but figures can be so easily distorted by one result (Rachels at 125/1 Ian!!).
I seem to have little success betting in running esp on Betfair where my selections always seem to bogey after I've got my money on. As for between round betting, my working week is set up to allow me time at the beginning of the week to research events and prices, so that's not really an option for me.
Certainly agree that concentrating on non Euro and PGA events is the way ahead, and that has always been reflected in my staking, although it has to be said that firms do price these events pretty cautiously now.
Long term, golf is still an attractive medium, and still profitable, but maybe it will not always be so. For me, the late 80's and early 90's was all about making lots of money on NFL with the UK bookmakers, but those heady days are gone now, mid to late 90's was all about golf betting, but perhaps it's getting too hard now, but I'm still able to turn a profit, so I'll keep going.
Betting is always about being able to adapt, and maybe in a couple of years time, we will all have moved on to something more profitable...hope not, as I do enjoy the game as a spectacle in itself.
Time for my mid-season break.....
It has been a very difficult summer and those heady days towards the end of May when my yearly profit was huge seem a long way off now. But everybody (except Ian!) has found it hard to make a profit in the last couple of months...lost about ?4k on golf during that time, things picking up slightly now though.
Betting outright on golf is always going to involve long losing runs, but figures can be so easily distorted by one result (Rachels at 125/1 Ian!!).
I seem to have little success betting in running esp on Betfair where my selections always seem to bogey after I've got my money on. As for between round betting, my working week is set up to allow me time at the beginning of the week to research events and prices, so that's not really an option for me.
Certainly agree that concentrating on non Euro and PGA events is the way ahead, and that has always been reflected in my staking, although it has to be said that firms do price these events pretty cautiously now.
Long term, golf is still an attractive medium, and still profitable, but maybe it will not always be so. For me, the late 80's and early 90's was all about making lots of money on NFL with the UK bookmakers, but those heady days are gone now, mid to late 90's was all about golf betting, but perhaps it's getting too hard now, but I'm still able to turn a profit, so I'll keep going.
Betting is always about being able to adapt, and maybe in a couple of years time, we will all have moved on to something more profitable...hope not, as I do enjoy the game as a spectacle in itself.
Time for my mid-season break.....
Good weeks example winners Woods-Irwin-Webb
Books didn't get hurt too bad
Don't know if it was just lucky streak but 3rd and 4th rd in running place bets was virtual goldmine @ Oly but short lived as most good things. They haven't had them of late. Don't think my peanut wagers hurt them however
Books didn't get hurt too bad
Don't know if it was just lucky streak but 3rd and 4th rd in running place bets was virtual goldmine @ Oly but short lived as most good things. They haven't had them of late. Don't think my peanut wagers hurt them however
In theory 72 hole match betting should be the most profitable as there are less runners.... but I must admit I haven't had one for ages.... when it involves a match that is nowhere near the lead I don't like to think that the putt means more to me than the millionaire who is taking it. Does anyone else make a profit?
The European tour has been the most profitable for me so far this year. On both tours most of my profit comes from match bets. I usually don't bet on the match bets which are put up by the major British bookmakers as their odds compilers are usually very clued up. More interesting betting opportunities can be found with some of the smaller euro books.
I think basically its horses for courses - I stopped doing match bets (except the odd rick at Bet & Win) because I couldn't get it over 52% so it was a waste of time, all I can do is look at my betting patterns and see where I win and more importantly where I lose. Above were the conclusions I came to - I would add I was also successful in the specialist categories - such as top Euro/Aussie etc so will carry on looking at these - esp this week.
I agree with Ian about the Majors, even though I have specialised on Padraig! One area where I have done well, is backing a springer in the marker at Betfair, and then laying off when price reduces, either before the event starts, or during. Another area where I have profited is from following players rather than events. Instead of picking the player whose turn it is to win this week, (sprint handicaps at horse racing) I bet when I think the player(s) I am following have most chance...
Having said that, I am losing, so mentally discard at your leisure!
Having said that, I am losing, so mentally discard at your leisure!
Ian,
Careful mate there's someone impersonating you. He posted....
"The only tournaments I will bet from the outset will be those on the Senior Tour, the other 3 tours I will only bet on once the tournament has started"....
I notice the real you has started 3 threads and posted several tips already this week... I don't know the other places the imposter is doing you... but just make sure he doesn't collect any of your winnings from your accounts this week!!
Careful mate there's someone impersonating you. He posted....
"The only tournaments I will bet from the outset will be those on the Senior Tour, the other 3 tours I will only bet on once the tournament has started"....
I notice the real you has started 3 threads and posted several tips already this week... I don't know the other places the imposter is doing you... but just make sure he doesn't collect any of your winnings from your accounts this week!!
Ian I notice you didn't say "I haven't bet them"
.... it's bets... the cash is down... you're clutching hyperspace receipts... there's no shame in it... my username is bettingmad!
.... it's bets... the cash is down... you're clutching hyperspace receipts... there's no shame in it... my username is bettingmad!
Very droll Bettingmad.
One field of betting I will add that I will bet at the beginning - Top "Nationalities" - been very successful in this field in the last couple of years (Riley was good last week) - should have one for the NEC tomorrow.
One field of betting I will add that I will bet at the beginning - Top "Nationalities" - been very successful in this field in the last couple of years (Riley was good last week) - should have one for the NEC tomorrow.
my golf betting analysis is going ok for me.
rather than go for traditional bets of winners and e/w bets i tend to use the spread-betting option.
i live in the uk so there are a number of firms i can use (most often www.sportingindex.com, and i find that these are easier to win on. i do a lot or research on the players finishing positions before the tournaments and pick golfers to do badly. during the tournament other nice options pop up in-running so there are lots of chances to find something profitable.
just gotta be patient.
good luck.
rather than go for traditional bets of winners and e/w bets i tend to use the spread-betting option.
i live in the uk so there are a number of firms i can use (most often www.sportingindex.com, and i find that these are easier to win on. i do a lot or research on the players finishing positions before the tournaments and pick golfers to do badly. during the tournament other nice options pop up in-running so there are lots of chances to find something profitable.
just gotta be patient.
good luck.
