Too Many Games Equals Too Many Losses by Alulio
There exist so many analogies that I could compare the topic I will be discussing in this article to. "Slow but sure wins the race", "Don't put all your eggs in one basket", "Don't count your chickens before they hatch", and many more are good representations. And what they do is lay the framework for the portrait I am trying to paint.
In many handicapping circles I am considered a rookie. After all I have only 8 years of sports investing in my resume. But, in my short time being involved in this industry, I have seen many, many ways to be a loser. Few ways to be a winner, but many ways to be a loser. One of the more popular ways that I have seen to be a proven road to bankroll destruction is playing too many games on any given day. Keep in mind that a high number of games could be different for each sports investor. The common ground that they share is that a complete shutout of their day's selections would put a large dent in their bankroll that only weeks of consistent winning would build it back up. Something that few have the discipline to do.
So instead of preaching about not chasing loses like so many 'cappers do, I am going to take a different approach and try to teach you how not to get to the point where you feel you have to chase.
The principle I will present is simple; the execution takes patience and discipline. Simply, reduce the number of games played so that the most you are playing on any given day is no more that 5% of your bankroll. Many handicappers preach you must have a bankroll, few preach how to use to it.
Consider the following. It is a very brief breakdown of how I handicap a game. Although it will very from sport to sport most of the same principles apply. Factors taken into consideration are 1) Team trends for both teams 2)Power ratings 3) Line Movements and evaluation 4)Current Steaks 5)Hometown news reports 6)History between the two teams 7)Schedule look ahead 8) Situational Systems 9)Injury Reports 10)Line value. These are just ten of the factors I consider when capping a game and keep in mind that each factor could be divided into anywhere from 3-10 sub-factors. All are very time consuming if done properly. Furthermore, it is also important to note that most successful handicappers evaluate each day's results thoroughly to see what went right or wrong. This too is very time consuming.
With this in mind it is no mystery that someone playing 10-15 games a night is essentially rolling the dice. In general, handicapping gives us the advantage of reducing the roll that luck will play in the outcome; if it is done properly. If done in any incomplete fashion it is like running a horse in a race with no jockey. The horse won't know when to start, won't know when to finish, wont know which way to go and surely won't win. Although the modern age of technology has increased the way we can process information as handicappers, it has more so slowed down the entire handicapping process because we now have tons more information to process. It is beyond me how someone can do diligent handicapping work on so many games in one night. Last I checked there were only 24 hours in a day.
This discipline of reducing your plays to just "best bets" is not easy to perfect. Having the ability to watch a game you were going to play, win, is a difficult task. But, next time you looked at a game you were going to play but then laid off, instead of cheering against your original proposed winners, cheer for the decision you originally came to. After all, you still did work on the game and often times watching that game you have no action on may help land a winner another night. A game is not going to win or lose (whatever you believe) just cause you do or do not have action on it.
Although we are grown men, we often behave like children in a candy store, pulling something out of every jar. You don't need action on every game, you don't need action on the Monday Night Football Game, and you don't need money on your local sports teams. The only place you need your money is on the few games that give you the best chance of winning. Easier said than done, but a discipline worth perfecting.
In conclusion I would like to re-evaluate that reducing the number of plays is beneficial in many facets including 1) You can not hurt your bankroll too severely on any given night 2) Less games to 'cap equals more time spent evaluating each game before and after the game properly 3)More profits over the long run. In the world of sports investing, time spent on handicapping specific games is in direct proportion to profits earned. Moreover, odds of winning are directly related to time spent on each game. Unless we can find a way to handicap in our sleep, it is reasonable to say that we should be playing only a minimal number of games each night. Notwithstanding, sometimes the best play on board is not playing at all. Patience, diligence and planning equals positive results. Too many game equals too many loses.
There exist so many analogies that I could compare the topic I will be discussing in this article to. "Slow but sure wins the race", "Don't put all your eggs in one basket", "Don't count your chickens before they hatch", and many more are good representations. And what they do is lay the framework for the portrait I am trying to paint.
In many handicapping circles I am considered a rookie. After all I have only 8 years of sports investing in my resume. But, in my short time being involved in this industry, I have seen many, many ways to be a loser. Few ways to be a winner, but many ways to be a loser. One of the more popular ways that I have seen to be a proven road to bankroll destruction is playing too many games on any given day. Keep in mind that a high number of games could be different for each sports investor. The common ground that they share is that a complete shutout of their day's selections would put a large dent in their bankroll that only weeks of consistent winning would build it back up. Something that few have the discipline to do.
So instead of preaching about not chasing loses like so many 'cappers do, I am going to take a different approach and try to teach you how not to get to the point where you feel you have to chase.
The principle I will present is simple; the execution takes patience and discipline. Simply, reduce the number of games played so that the most you are playing on any given day is no more that 5% of your bankroll. Many handicappers preach you must have a bankroll, few preach how to use to it.
Consider the following. It is a very brief breakdown of how I handicap a game. Although it will very from sport to sport most of the same principles apply. Factors taken into consideration are 1) Team trends for both teams 2)Power ratings 3) Line Movements and evaluation 4)Current Steaks 5)Hometown news reports 6)History between the two teams 7)Schedule look ahead 8) Situational Systems 9)Injury Reports 10)Line value. These are just ten of the factors I consider when capping a game and keep in mind that each factor could be divided into anywhere from 3-10 sub-factors. All are very time consuming if done properly. Furthermore, it is also important to note that most successful handicappers evaluate each day's results thoroughly to see what went right or wrong. This too is very time consuming.
With this in mind it is no mystery that someone playing 10-15 games a night is essentially rolling the dice. In general, handicapping gives us the advantage of reducing the roll that luck will play in the outcome; if it is done properly. If done in any incomplete fashion it is like running a horse in a race with no jockey. The horse won't know when to start, won't know when to finish, wont know which way to go and surely won't win. Although the modern age of technology has increased the way we can process information as handicappers, it has more so slowed down the entire handicapping process because we now have tons more information to process. It is beyond me how someone can do diligent handicapping work on so many games in one night. Last I checked there were only 24 hours in a day.
This discipline of reducing your plays to just "best bets" is not easy to perfect. Having the ability to watch a game you were going to play, win, is a difficult task. But, next time you looked at a game you were going to play but then laid off, instead of cheering against your original proposed winners, cheer for the decision you originally came to. After all, you still did work on the game and often times watching that game you have no action on may help land a winner another night. A game is not going to win or lose (whatever you believe) just cause you do or do not have action on it.
Although we are grown men, we often behave like children in a candy store, pulling something out of every jar. You don't need action on every game, you don't need action on the Monday Night Football Game, and you don't need money on your local sports teams. The only place you need your money is on the few games that give you the best chance of winning. Easier said than done, but a discipline worth perfecting.
In conclusion I would like to re-evaluate that reducing the number of plays is beneficial in many facets including 1) You can not hurt your bankroll too severely on any given night 2) Less games to 'cap equals more time spent evaluating each game before and after the game properly 3)More profits over the long run. In the world of sports investing, time spent on handicapping specific games is in direct proportion to profits earned. Moreover, odds of winning are directly related to time spent on each game. Unless we can find a way to handicap in our sleep, it is reasonable to say that we should be playing only a minimal number of games each night. Notwithstanding, sometimes the best play on board is not playing at all. Patience, diligence and planning equals positive results. Too many game equals too many loses.
