Good Bet if you REALLY like PItt

[Magking1]

Most books have Pitt-11.5 to as much as -13 at MVP.


This is one example of a good play

Pitt is offered at -11.5 at -110 or
on an altenate spread of -17.5 and +250 at Carib.

I say put a portion of your bet on the alt line.

You would only be giving up the #'s 12,13,14,15,16,17 (13,14, and 17 as key #;s) that can be covered with one TD.

For example if Pitt is up 11, that one last TD to cover the spread also covers the alt spread!!

I feel this is a good trade
100 to win 250 vs 100 to win 91

Just some food for thought
Good luck!!

 

[yyz]

Bad title............Too many ways to be crushed on this bet.

Sure you can win, but covering 11' is hard enough, let alone grabbing another touchdown outta the magic hat.

There is no free lunch in this game.

 

[Magking1]

No doubt that 11.5 is hard to cover.

The title of my post is" Good bet IF you REALLY like Pittsburgh"

There is not too many ways to get crushed only 6 #'s that beat you:
Pit winning by 12,13,14,15,16,or 17

My point is that if you are going to bet Pitt at 11.5 ANYWAY then I think its a good deal to give up the #'s 12-17 in order to get a +250 vs -110 payoff.

$100 bet wins $250 instead of $91!! .

My example was that of Pitt being up say 17-6 (11 points). They would not even be covering the regular 11.5 line. But a TD now not only covers the line but also the alt line.

I know there are scenarios where Pitt may be up 24 and get backdoored by a late TD.

The main premise behind this bet is two fold
1. You already like PItt on the regular line.
2. You are willing to give up those 6 numbers in order to get a significantly higher payout.

I agree there are no free luches but how about a Blue Plate Special.

 

[kneifl]

Not a great bet at all, Pitt is not an overly offensive team - they put more field goals on the board than touchdowns. I think the game could go either way with a line of -11, but a line of -17.5 is absurd.

kneifl

 

[CapnHandi]

Bad Bet

Bad Bet

I think this is a horrible bet - look at it this way:

If you bet Pitt $100 to cover 11.5 then you end up with $191 if they win by 12 or more. Now for the -17.5 bet you are taking your winnings of $191 and putting it on the line to win an addition $159 that they win by 18 or more.

It's like betting a parlay with very bad odds - but good luck, it could win.

 

[Magking1]

I love this forum because someone always has a good thought.

Im hoping for a Giants/ redskins like game.

But Capn I can see where you are coming from on the math.

This the NFL.

And I see that if you look at giving 6 more points in an NFL game it often seems you need one of them magic hat touchdowns that yyz was talking about.

Have a great week!!

 

[cmamoulelis]

Not a great bet at all, Pitt is not an overly offensive team - they put more field goals on the board than touchdowns. I think the game could go either way with a line of -11, but a line of -17.5 is absurd.

kneifl

how many people would have taken the giants -25 at home against the redskins this past weekend? not a soul, but they would have covered and also beaten the 10 pt teaser. -17 is not absurd

 

[DerekNJND]

I love this forum because someone always has a good thought.

Im hoping for a Giants/ redskins like game.

But Capn I can see where you are coming from on the math.

This the NFL.

And I see that if you look at giving 6 more points in an NFL game it often seems you need one of them magic hat touchdowns that yyz was talking about.

Have a great week!!

everyone wake up please. The line in this game should be -5 or -6. People laying 12 and 13 points on Pit are already insane enough. Now you come along encouraging people to lay 17. Unbelievable. Yea, they COULD win by three scores, valid point. Look at the percentage of covers vs. noncovers yesterday. I dont have numbers to back this up, but it had to be the most even week of the season, meaning nearly as many teams covered as didnt cover. What does that mean? VEGAS is cashing in. Low spreads in NFL equal easy covers.

How many games yesterday were decided by 10+ points? I didnt look but it was like 4 or 5. Guess how many of those lines were DOUBLE DIGIT lays? NONE. The biggest blowout of the day was a ONE POINT SPREAD. The dallas/arizona game and Carolina/Minn game lived up to the blowout hype but look at all the others that didnt even come close: NE, TB, CINCY. I was nervous about laying 13.5 for INDY against a crappy D two weeks ago, and I probably woulda got burnt if Bulger didnt get hurt. Lay 13 with the PIT offense instead of INDY, going against a great D like BAL instead of the lowly Rams D? GOD people are NUTS, NUTS NUTS

What about me? well im watchin everyone on SB inflate this OVER right along with pitt, then im takin the UNDER straight up with two top 10 NFL defenses squaring off. Lewis and Reed are out, but defense is not just about playmakers. Playmakers cause turnovers and make hits on the highlight reels, but they dont draw up the plays or develop defensive schemes that have made BAL consistently one of the best D's in the NFL.

 

[IntenseOperator]

Baltimore's D (is over rated) hasn't been truly tested

esp on the road

 

[MrChristo]

Not a great bet at all, Pitt is not an overly offensive team - they put more field goals on the board than touchdowns. .

kneifl

They do?...

Not what the official NFL stats say

17 TD's 10 FG's in 6 games @ 24.8 ppg. :mj14: