Good pitchers, bad teams
This is what happens when you let Jeffrey Loria run things.
The Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals (who Loria drove into the ground back when they were the Montreal Expos) are bringing up the rear in the National League East Division standings. The Marlins are 13-25; the Nationals are even worse at 11-25. Not a good start to the 2006 campaign, especially when the two clubs were a combined 41-33 at the same time last year.
The No. 1 starters for both clubs will be in action Tuesday night. Washington?s Livan Hernandez takes the mound at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, while Dontrelle Willis faces the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Handicappers have developed a love-hate relationship with these talented hurlers. Willis and Hernandez were both moneymaking machines in 2003 ? Willis generated 8.45 units of profit as a rookie (betting $100 on each of his starts would have yielded $845), while Hernandez put Expos fans 3.1 units in the black. Things soured in 2004, when Hernandez (-7.8 units) and Willis (-8.05 units) both fell into the poorhouse.
The boom and bust continued in 2005. Hernandez generated 4.83 units of profit for Nats supporters last year, while Willis was close behind with 4.4 units. So it?s fitting that the two are once again matching each other?s results in 2006 ? this time, at the very bottom of the money standings. Willis already has a deficit of 6.55 units, just a dollar ahead of Hernandez for dead last among starting pitchers at 6.56 units. The similarities don?t stop there. Washington and Florida are each 1-7 when their ace takes the hill. The OVER cashed in for both wins, and also went 4-3 for each team?s seven losses.
Both Willis and Hernandez are having unusually bad years thus far. Willis has a shockingly bad 1.58 WHIP after getting shelled in each of his last three starts. Hernandez is even worse at 1.65 WHIP. These are horrible numbers from two of the best pitchers in the majors over the past three years. No wonder that they?re both underdogs this Tuesday, especially considering the starters they?ll be matched up against. The Marlins are +160 against Tim Hudson and the Braves (who are listed at ?180); Washington is a +150 puppy against Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs (-170, despite going 1-12 since May 1).
The powers that be in Major League Baseball are expected to rubber-stamp Ted Lerner?s Washington ownership bid this week, but it will be a while before the real estate developer is in a position to pull the Nats out of their tailspin. They?ve won only six of their last 21 games, a slide that coincides with the loss of John Patterson and his sparkling 0.86 WHIP to forearm tendonitis. Former Expos starter Zach Day (1.16 WHIP) has been solid in Patterson?s place since coming back to the franchise after spending a year in purgatory at Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies. But outside of Tony Armas (1.12 WHIP), nobody else is getting it done for the Nats.
As for the Marlins, not much was expected from the 2003 World Series champions after they slashed team payroll from $60.4 million to an MLB-low $15 million. But Willis was being counted on to keep up his Cy Young-quality work of seasons past. The colorful southpaw was projected (by Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA system) to post a 3.50 ERA this year. His current ERA is a lofty 6.22. Perhaps it?s worth revisiting the argument that being a starting pitcher in the World Baseball Classic has messed things up. Taken as a group, the WBC starters were projected to combine for a 4.24 ERA in 2006; instead, their ERA had ballooned to 5.49 as of last week.
Hernandez, being a Cuban defector, wasn?t able to pitch for his native country in the WBC, although he would have been eligible to join the Puerto Rico squad. It?s probably just as well he didn?t. Hernandez has earned his reputation as a serious workhorse ? eight straight seasons of over 200 innings, leading the majors in innings pitched each of the last three years. Adding the WBC to his plate may have been enough to make his arm come out of its socket.
At least the 1997 World Series MVP (with the Marlins, naturally) is still hitting the tar out of the ball. Hernandez is 6-for-20 with a home run thus far, good for a .900 OPS. Willis, meanwhile, is his usual awful self at the plate: 2-for-13 for a .368 OPS. But at least he?s hitting better than center fielder Eric Reed (.319 OPS).
Marlins-Braves goes at 7:35 p.m. Eastern Time on FOX Sports Florida and Turner South. The Nats and Cubs get it on at 8:05 p.m. on local television.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
This is what happens when you let Jeffrey Loria run things.
The Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals (who Loria drove into the ground back when they were the Montreal Expos) are bringing up the rear in the National League East Division standings. The Marlins are 13-25; the Nationals are even worse at 11-25. Not a good start to the 2006 campaign, especially when the two clubs were a combined 41-33 at the same time last year.
The No. 1 starters for both clubs will be in action Tuesday night. Washington?s Livan Hernandez takes the mound at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, while Dontrelle Willis faces the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Handicappers have developed a love-hate relationship with these talented hurlers. Willis and Hernandez were both moneymaking machines in 2003 ? Willis generated 8.45 units of profit as a rookie (betting $100 on each of his starts would have yielded $845), while Hernandez put Expos fans 3.1 units in the black. Things soured in 2004, when Hernandez (-7.8 units) and Willis (-8.05 units) both fell into the poorhouse.
The boom and bust continued in 2005. Hernandez generated 4.83 units of profit for Nats supporters last year, while Willis was close behind with 4.4 units. So it?s fitting that the two are once again matching each other?s results in 2006 ? this time, at the very bottom of the money standings. Willis already has a deficit of 6.55 units, just a dollar ahead of Hernandez for dead last among starting pitchers at 6.56 units. The similarities don?t stop there. Washington and Florida are each 1-7 when their ace takes the hill. The OVER cashed in for both wins, and also went 4-3 for each team?s seven losses.
Both Willis and Hernandez are having unusually bad years thus far. Willis has a shockingly bad 1.58 WHIP after getting shelled in each of his last three starts. Hernandez is even worse at 1.65 WHIP. These are horrible numbers from two of the best pitchers in the majors over the past three years. No wonder that they?re both underdogs this Tuesday, especially considering the starters they?ll be matched up against. The Marlins are +160 against Tim Hudson and the Braves (who are listed at ?180); Washington is a +150 puppy against Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs (-170, despite going 1-12 since May 1).
The powers that be in Major League Baseball are expected to rubber-stamp Ted Lerner?s Washington ownership bid this week, but it will be a while before the real estate developer is in a position to pull the Nats out of their tailspin. They?ve won only six of their last 21 games, a slide that coincides with the loss of John Patterson and his sparkling 0.86 WHIP to forearm tendonitis. Former Expos starter Zach Day (1.16 WHIP) has been solid in Patterson?s place since coming back to the franchise after spending a year in purgatory at Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies. But outside of Tony Armas (1.12 WHIP), nobody else is getting it done for the Nats.
As for the Marlins, not much was expected from the 2003 World Series champions after they slashed team payroll from $60.4 million to an MLB-low $15 million. But Willis was being counted on to keep up his Cy Young-quality work of seasons past. The colorful southpaw was projected (by Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA system) to post a 3.50 ERA this year. His current ERA is a lofty 6.22. Perhaps it?s worth revisiting the argument that being a starting pitcher in the World Baseball Classic has messed things up. Taken as a group, the WBC starters were projected to combine for a 4.24 ERA in 2006; instead, their ERA had ballooned to 5.49 as of last week.
Hernandez, being a Cuban defector, wasn?t able to pitch for his native country in the WBC, although he would have been eligible to join the Puerto Rico squad. It?s probably just as well he didn?t. Hernandez has earned his reputation as a serious workhorse ? eight straight seasons of over 200 innings, leading the majors in innings pitched each of the last three years. Adding the WBC to his plate may have been enough to make his arm come out of its socket.
At least the 1997 World Series MVP (with the Marlins, naturally) is still hitting the tar out of the ball. Hernandez is 6-for-20 with a home run thus far, good for a .900 OPS. Willis, meanwhile, is his usual awful self at the plate: 2-for-13 for a .368 OPS. But at least he?s hitting better than center fielder Eric Reed (.319 OPS).
Marlins-Braves goes at 7:35 p.m. Eastern Time on FOX Sports Florida and Turner South. The Nats and Cubs get it on at 8:05 p.m. on local television.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
