Rhythm or Lose: Sharps wary of rested Colts
By Andrew Folkes
Mon, Jan 9, 2006
When you?re laying big points in a divisional playoff contest, you?ve really got to have your act together in order to attract the sharp money.
So with a relatively inactive Indianapolis Colts team listed at -9 ? against a Pittsburgh Steelers squad that just blew past Cincinnati in Sunday?s AFC wild-card tilt, wise guys are having a hard time justifying a bet on the favorites.
?This spread is based on a Colts team that?s fully in its rhythm,? says Covers Expert David Malinsky. ?It doesn?t seem to account for everything the Colts have been through lately.?
The Colts hit their stride right out of the gate this season, winning 13 consecutive contests and going 9-3-1 against the number in those games. However, the events of the final three weeks seemed to take them out of step.
First, their highly scrutinized bid for a perfect season abruptly ended in Week 15 when they fell 26-17 to San Diego as 7-point home favorites. Four days later the team was rocked by the death of coach Tony Dungy?s 18-year-old son. Indy went on to suffer a 28-13 blowout to Seattle in its following game, then finished the campaign with a lackluster 17-13 win over Arizona at -7 ?.
The Colts had a playoff bye and home-field advantage locked up since their Week 14 win over Jacksonville and many of their starters saw limited action in those final two tilts. However, that won?t make it any easier for them to get their game faces on against Pittsburgh.
?You really have to be in sync when you?re in this pointspread range,? says Malinsky. ?But with (the Colts? style) of football you just can?t turn it on and off.?
Oddsmakers? optimism towards the Colts is also partly based on their 26-7 routing of the Steelers in Week 12 at the RCA Dome. That Monday night showdown was quarterback Ben Roethlisberger?s first game back from a three-week layoff due to knee surgery, and the Steelers had several key injuries on both the offensive and defensive lines.
Indy was able to take advantage of a Pittsburgh squad that was clearly off kilter, but this time it?s the Steelers that?ll have a chance to cash in on the Colts? potential chemistry problems.
?The Colts? situation is almost a carbon copy of the one Pittsburgh was in,? says Malinsky. ?It?ll be interesting to see if the Steelers come out more aggressively on defense. If I were (Steelers coach) Bill Cowher, I would try to blitz and put pressure on Manning, although you are gambling (when you blitz) against that offense.?
For their part the Colts are enjoying their downtime, insisting they?ll make good use of the 14 days they?ll have had off by the time they take the field Sunday.
?If you use it to get some guys healthy and you have good practices, guys get a chance to get rested and another week to study yourselves and our potential opponents,? Peyton Manning told reporters. "It`s important to use it the right way.?
So far bettors seem to believe they will. The line has held steady at -9 ? at most sportsbooks, while a handful of others have moved it to -10.
?The public will expect it to be the same old Colts,? says Malinsky. ?So that?s the line they had to put out.?
Oddsmakers have set Sunday?s total at 48.
By Andrew Folkes
Mon, Jan 9, 2006
When you?re laying big points in a divisional playoff contest, you?ve really got to have your act together in order to attract the sharp money.
So with a relatively inactive Indianapolis Colts team listed at -9 ? against a Pittsburgh Steelers squad that just blew past Cincinnati in Sunday?s AFC wild-card tilt, wise guys are having a hard time justifying a bet on the favorites.
?This spread is based on a Colts team that?s fully in its rhythm,? says Covers Expert David Malinsky. ?It doesn?t seem to account for everything the Colts have been through lately.?
The Colts hit their stride right out of the gate this season, winning 13 consecutive contests and going 9-3-1 against the number in those games. However, the events of the final three weeks seemed to take them out of step.
First, their highly scrutinized bid for a perfect season abruptly ended in Week 15 when they fell 26-17 to San Diego as 7-point home favorites. Four days later the team was rocked by the death of coach Tony Dungy?s 18-year-old son. Indy went on to suffer a 28-13 blowout to Seattle in its following game, then finished the campaign with a lackluster 17-13 win over Arizona at -7 ?.
The Colts had a playoff bye and home-field advantage locked up since their Week 14 win over Jacksonville and many of their starters saw limited action in those final two tilts. However, that won?t make it any easier for them to get their game faces on against Pittsburgh.
?You really have to be in sync when you?re in this pointspread range,? says Malinsky. ?But with (the Colts? style) of football you just can?t turn it on and off.?
Oddsmakers? optimism towards the Colts is also partly based on their 26-7 routing of the Steelers in Week 12 at the RCA Dome. That Monday night showdown was quarterback Ben Roethlisberger?s first game back from a three-week layoff due to knee surgery, and the Steelers had several key injuries on both the offensive and defensive lines.
Indy was able to take advantage of a Pittsburgh squad that was clearly off kilter, but this time it?s the Steelers that?ll have a chance to cash in on the Colts? potential chemistry problems.
?The Colts? situation is almost a carbon copy of the one Pittsburgh was in,? says Malinsky. ?It?ll be interesting to see if the Steelers come out more aggressively on defense. If I were (Steelers coach) Bill Cowher, I would try to blitz and put pressure on Manning, although you are gambling (when you blitz) against that offense.?
For their part the Colts are enjoying their downtime, insisting they?ll make good use of the 14 days they?ll have had off by the time they take the field Sunday.
?If you use it to get some guys healthy and you have good practices, guys get a chance to get rested and another week to study yourselves and our potential opponents,? Peyton Manning told reporters. "It`s important to use it the right way.?
So far bettors seem to believe they will. The line has held steady at -9 ? at most sportsbooks, while a handful of others have moved it to -10.
?The public will expect it to be the same old Colts,? says Malinsky. ?So that?s the line they had to put out.?
Oddsmakers have set Sunday?s total at 48.