West Virginia (-6.5) 28 CONNECTICUT 26
04:30 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Oct-13 - Stats Matchup
West Virginia is clearly not the top-10 team that they were supposed to bet this season and Connecticut should be able to compete from the line of scrimmage in this game, and have a good chance to win if their special teams doesn?t make their usual mistakes. Connecticut has pretty good offense, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average Division 1A offense, and quarterback Dan Orlovsky should have a very productive outing against a sub-par West Virginia secondary has only allowed 5.2 yards per pass play, but has done so against a collection a bad passing teams that would average only 5.0 yppp against an average defense. The Mountaineers are 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average, so the Huskies? mediocre ground game (0.1 yprp better than average) will probably be slowed a bit in this game. Overall, it looks like U Conn can move the ball at a pretty decent rate in this game and that should enable them to stay within striking distance, as their run-stuffing defense matches up well against a run-oriented West Virginia attack. The Mounties run the ball 70% of the time and they are good at doing it with Kay Jay Harris doing the bulk of the damage (I rate WVU?s rushing attack at 1.0 yprp better than average). However, Connecticut has allowed just 3.4 yprp on defense (against teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average defense ? so they are 1.1 yprp better than average). Despite having just modest success running the football, the Mountaineers will continue to run the ball rather than take advantage of a weak Connecticut secondary that I rate at 0.7 yppp worse than average. West Virginia has averaged only 4.2 yprp in their last 3 games against 3 teams that are good at defending the run (Maryland, James Madison, and Virginia Tech) and they still ran the ball an average of 45 times per game, so the Mounties aren?t going to take full advantage of Connecticut?s defensive weakness while Connecticut will take advantage of West Virginia?s defensive weakness. My math model takes match-ups into account and it predicts the total yardage pretty even in this game. The difference is turnovers (Connecticut is projected to be -0.4 in turnover margin) and special teams, where the Huskies are 5 ? points worse than West Virginia. Overall, my model favors West Virginia by 5 ? points, but the Huskies qualify in a very good 90-34-2 ATS home team off a bye angle, but there have not been any such games that applied to that angle that were played on a Wednesday, so I?m not sure whether to apply the angle or not. I will give that angle half of it?s normal value and lean with Connecticut to cover the number.
04:30 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Oct-13 - Stats Matchup
West Virginia is clearly not the top-10 team that they were supposed to bet this season and Connecticut should be able to compete from the line of scrimmage in this game, and have a good chance to win if their special teams doesn?t make their usual mistakes. Connecticut has pretty good offense, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average Division 1A offense, and quarterback Dan Orlovsky should have a very productive outing against a sub-par West Virginia secondary has only allowed 5.2 yards per pass play, but has done so against a collection a bad passing teams that would average only 5.0 yppp against an average defense. The Mountaineers are 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average, so the Huskies? mediocre ground game (0.1 yprp better than average) will probably be slowed a bit in this game. Overall, it looks like U Conn can move the ball at a pretty decent rate in this game and that should enable them to stay within striking distance, as their run-stuffing defense matches up well against a run-oriented West Virginia attack. The Mounties run the ball 70% of the time and they are good at doing it with Kay Jay Harris doing the bulk of the damage (I rate WVU?s rushing attack at 1.0 yprp better than average). However, Connecticut has allowed just 3.4 yprp on defense (against teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average defense ? so they are 1.1 yprp better than average). Despite having just modest success running the football, the Mountaineers will continue to run the ball rather than take advantage of a weak Connecticut secondary that I rate at 0.7 yppp worse than average. West Virginia has averaged only 4.2 yprp in their last 3 games against 3 teams that are good at defending the run (Maryland, James Madison, and Virginia Tech) and they still ran the ball an average of 45 times per game, so the Mounties aren?t going to take full advantage of Connecticut?s defensive weakness while Connecticut will take advantage of West Virginia?s defensive weakness. My math model takes match-ups into account and it predicts the total yardage pretty even in this game. The difference is turnovers (Connecticut is projected to be -0.4 in turnover margin) and special teams, where the Huskies are 5 ? points worse than West Virginia. Overall, my model favors West Virginia by 5 ? points, but the Huskies qualify in a very good 90-34-2 ATS home team off a bye angle, but there have not been any such games that applied to that angle that were played on a Wednesday, so I?m not sure whether to apply the angle or not. I will give that angle half of it?s normal value and lean with Connecticut to cover the number.
