Grand Salami question

[yyz]

Here's my Q:

The total always seems higher than the total of all games combined. I would guess that this is because if a game is "5" you can only be under by 5 goals, but you could go over by infinity.

But I seem to notice that when you have a full slate of games, there always seems to be two or three games that have 8-10 or even more goals scored. Take an average o/u of 5', and that is 3' or more over the total for three games. Since you don't see as many 1,2, or 3 goal games, this seems disproportionate.

I don't follow hockey as much as I used to, but it seems to me, that there is a built in value on the Salami over on full nights. If any of you have stats to back this or blow it up, please let me know.

Thanks

 

[Investment Executive]

i don't think you can blanket the whole situation per se.....
taking into account the juice on the totals of the individual games you can come very close to the actual g/salami projection....

lets use pinnacle for friday's games as i write this:

mont/columbus 5.5 u-125
buff/detroit 5.5 u-125
chi/minnesota 5.0 u-145
wash/anaheim 5.5 o -120

totally up the goals we get 21.5
totally up the juice we get 75 cents to the under.

first goal in the nhl ranges from 40-54 cents in value....so for argument sake...take 1/2 goal for the first 50 cents leaving the grand salami at 21.0 over -125.

their current line at pinnacle for the grand salami is 21.0 over -115......

slight lean by 10cents to the under...

as for the amount of games....yes there can be some shootouts but usually its balanced out by a 2-0 game or etc....

i think you have to get a feel for each total indiviually then see if it applies to the whole night....

looking at the 4 matchups tonight...i would tend to think the under might have some play into it......

hope this helps...

IE

 

[infinii]

I was just thinking...

If the board is chock full of close PK games, one can assume alot of close tight games. This is good for over. Why? Well, in 1 goal games, you get chance of empty netters at end. Or in tie games, you have the extra 5min overtime with fast paced 4on4 play to get an extra goal.

With alot of faves (ie. -1.5), if you assume blowouts. Then you have teams racing out to large leads (2 goal lead is enough) and then playing defensive style (dump the puck, clog neutral, preventive style) hockey. There's also less likelihood of overtime.

Just some thoughts for over/under bettors.

inf

 

[Kronheim]

YYZ, I tracked the Salami for much of last year. Unfortunately, I have lost the spreadsheet I used, but here?s what I can remember about my findings.

There was no correlation between the number of games and the probability of the Salami going over. It seems to make sense that there would be, but in my experience it just doesn?t. In fact, just the opposite may be true. Think about it this way: if you have 4 games on the card, like tonight, and one game has 10 goals scored, you?re almost halfway to an over. If you have eight games on the card, like last night, it takes a more games with lots of goals to push the GS over (which did happen yesterday, as it turned out. Only 4-5 games of 8 were needed to push the GS over). Now, in past seasons, days with multiple games in the 10 goal range were relatively uncommon, so even if one game goes over by a mile you still have a decent shot at hitting the GS under. It?s like Nolan says about football, it?s usually better to play on the assumption that nothing will happen than something, because it is easier for teams to suck than succeed (although this is less true in hockey than in other sports IMO, but I digress). So I guess what I?m saying is that your idea about there being a built-in value on the Salami on nights with lots of games might seem to make sense on the surface, but it should be remembered that it works both ways. Does this make sense? Sorry, it was long night yesterday celebrating the Oilers? victory

Another aspect of the GS I noticed last season was its tendency to even itself out. For example, after 3 consecutive nights of either overs or unders, I played the other way, thinking that the laws of probability would tend to pull the result back in the other direction. This actually worked amazingly well for the first half of the season, and I made a ton of money with it. but right after the All-Star break there was string of about 10 unders that really killed the system. I suppose that kind of thing could be expected to happen at least once a year. I?ve started to track the GS again this year to see if the same system holds true this season, so far it seems to be working. Example: last night?s GS went over, but the last 3 or 4 nights prior were unders. So far so good.

I think the GS is a great play. Because it takes the sum of all the games you?re insulated somewhat from freak occurrences that can really screw you if you?re playing each game individually.

Ok, I?ve rambled enough. Looking forward to other?s insights on the Salami.

Kron

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

I've usually played the UNDER on grand salami's on fridays, sundays and mondays for some reason...i dunno...

I also take into account any teams playing back to back jacks...

I'm 3-0 in grand salami's in my notes this year from the above criterion....

[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 10-12-2001).]