Great Spot for Buffalo

[Juice]

I have been a long time member of this site and have decided to finally post my first NFL pick.
There are a few reasons why I think this game sets up beautifully for Buffalo:

1. Line inflated because Buf's qb is out
2. Seattle played a great game & beat the AFC's best team on national tv last week
3. This is a sandwich game for Seattle. They played a divisional foe last week (Oak), they play a non-divisional opponent this week (Buf), and they play a divisional foe next week (KC). Teams tend to overlook the middle game in this type of situation, opting to focus more on the two divisional matches.

I think Buffalo wins game outright, but would take the 3 1/2 just in case.

 

[twofingers]

i like the over here.

Van Pelt is a positive for the Bills. He has ran the offense much better then Johnson in his limited playing time. he gets rid of the ball, gets Centers involved more , and makes better decisions.

The Bills O line is healthy and have a game under their belt as a unit. Expect them to give some better support.

Alexander will give the Bills all they can handle. Bills have yet to to stop a strong running game this season.

I expect the Bills to score in the 20's so you could make a case for the Bills +3.5 and the over

 

[bej0101]

i am a long time bill's fan and i tell you in all honesty they are worse than the lions.seattle needs to win for hasslebeck's confidence. the bill's offense is non-existent and has been since #7 left..they should play for the number 1 draft pick!!!!

 

[pepin46]

line inflated?

buffalo has yet to show they can beat anybody, let alone stay within 4 points of anybody.

seattle is near the top of their game right now, and if they are not completely prepared for this game it is mostly for the lack of offensive film from buffalo. their best effort was at s.d., and it was almost a single-handed affair by johnson, who had his own personal reasons for it, and who also paid for it physically. still, they lost by more than 4, didn't they?

as far as scoring on seattle, well it looks easy: short passes, short passes, and ocassional runs. problem is the red zone. their defense allows the short yardage and nothing else, using the oak game as a basis. i see it very hard for buffalo to score off. tds here. i figure around 3-4 fgs.

buffalo's defense is very suspect too, as indy opened up a huge lead on them, and no-offense pitt beat them amply as well; both games at home.

until buffalo can show they have started to get their act together, this type of short line should sway the bettor to the opposite side.


pep

 

[Juice]

until buffalo can show they have started to get their act together, this type of short line should sway the bettor to the opposite side.

That's exactly what Vegas is trying to do.

 

[phoenix566]

I agree with your analysis juice. I think Buff may just get their act together now that Johnson (who they don't like) is sidelined. Don't know if I will pull the trigger, but I do know I certainly won't lay the wood on Sea just because I saw them play their best game of the season.

I learned a long time ago to respect the man behind the line in Vegas. If a line looks wrong to me it is because I am looking at it through foggy glasses. Rarely in the NFL is a line 'wrong'.

If I contribute anything to this forum, I hope it is just this. Take off them foggy glasses if you wanna be a long term successful handicapper. And stop betting favorites just because they are 'supposed' to win. Some of the best value is found in the teams that everyone 'writes' off.

good luck this weekend

 

[Antonio]

Juice agree 100% on this one !

 

[phoenix566]

 

[Juice]

LOL Phoenix

(never in doubt

)