Greater Hartford Open

[Ian]

Scott Verplank closed last year with a course record equalling
61 so should have good memories, his short hitting is better suited here and he missed
the rigours of the weekend at Bethpage - 50-1 at Sporting Odds is quite generous.
Another short hitter who has won the Greater Hartford before -
Olin Browne is definitely not a 150/1 chance - Victor Chandlers' price will not last long

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Is Stanley AWOL??? I can not function without his stats.
I know what your thinking>I didn't function too well with them last week

 

[Clive]

Not a great betting heat...a few savers here and there, but the only proper bet:

Scott Hoch 50/1 bet 365...40/1 generally now...just the sort to be bloody minded enough to win here after visiting only rarely in last 15 years...eyes working well last week!!

 

[steved]

0.5 ew each
Cink (33/1 Ladbrokes) good record here, might benefit from missing cut at US Open and not having to play in that wind Sat/Sun. Also I backed him last week and want my money back!
DiMarco (25/1 Sportingbet, bigger elsewhere for 4 places), 5/3 here last two years. The only way is up!

 

[Ian]

Verplank 80/1 Olympic

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outrights 1 unit to place @ oly
Verplank 20/1 (thanks for headsup Ian) It won't be there long
72 holes
Mick -125 vs Garcia @ Cascade
Dimarco -105 vs Duval @ 365
Lonard -115 vs Huston @ 365

 

[Cartman88]

My outrights for this week:

Phil Mickelson each way 8-1
Davis Love each way 33-1
Brad Faxon each way 50-1
Scott Verplank each way 60-1 (missed out on the 80-1 but still a nice price)

 

[Cartman88]

My matchups for this week:

Mickelson -125 vs Garcia @ Canbet
Hoch +104 vs Maruyama @ Canbet
Triplett -115 vs Azinger @ Canbet
Lonard -125 vs Norman @ Centrebet
Perry -110 vs Andrade @ Carib

 

[Svengali]

My match-ups for the week -

Mickelson to beat Garcia (5/6 at Bet365)
Lonard to beat Molder (10/11 at Surrey)
Maruyama to beat Howell (5/6 at Surrey)

Lonard and Maruyama going with the form guys and not sure that Garcia will handle last week's disappointment well (Mickelson's used to it!).

 

[lostinamerica]

Everything is magnified in the majors. The chances are decent that includes the after-effects.

Some polar extremes in after-effects might include:

A. Players that may have found momentum or confidence coming out of the Open, or simply confirmed their solid game with another display of good form (Hoch, Howell, Lonard, Love, Hart, etc.).

B. Players that may have been strained or drained by the proceedings (I doubt if it was a "been there, done that" week for Mickelson; birdies may come this week, but he would seem hard pressed to be grinding away and saving strokes for four days like a champion).

C. Players disgusted with some aspect of U.S. Open Week, which might include among the best bets someone fresh that failed to qualify for the event (Cink, Garcia, Huston, Andrade, Elkington, etc.).

Of course I tried to look at course form, performances by the player in comparable situations after a good or bad "Super Bowl", available odds, etc.

If the theory holds water, identifying these plays is an entirely different matter. So, who might come in with a bounce to their game? I?ll try these:


OUTRIGHTS for 0.20*:

Hoch(50/1 e.w.) @ Bet 365
Howell(40/1 e.w.) @ Bet365
Andrade(66/1 e.w.) @ Bet365
Cink(28/1 e.w.) @ Bet365

The intensity of a U.S. Open also contributes to placing Ryder Cup posturing smack dab on the burner. I guess that justifies one more outright:

Verplank(60/1 e.w.) @ Olympic

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 hole @ 5dimes
Singh +115 vs Garcia
This same match was big loser last week but taking another shot at generous odds.

 

[lostinamerica]

MATCHUPS for 1*:

From a small slate of choices at my outs:

Lonard(-125) over Huston (Tournament) @ Bet365

Howell(-115) over Kelly (Tournament) @ Bet365

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding outrights @ Oly 1 unit each to place
VJ and Dimarco both @ 6.25/1

2nd rd
Peoples -110 over Herron @ Wsex
Verplank -1 stroke +120 over Zinger @ Wsex
Dimarco -1 +105 over Elk @ Wsex
Singh -110 over Els @ 5dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut 2d rd 3-1 72 holes 1-0 3 pending

2nd rd
Peoples -110 over Herron @ Wsex win
Verplank -1 stroke +120 over Zinger @ Wsex win
Dimarco -1 +105 over Elk @ Wsex win
Singh -110 over Els @ 5dimes loss

72 holes
Mick -125 vs Garcia @ Cascade all square
Dimarco -105 vs Duval @ 365 win
Lonard -115 vs Huston @ 365 6 up
Singh +115 vs Garcia 5 dn

Singh loses by one to Els for lone loss
Duval continues to be profitable however they have to adjust at some point.That have taken away miss cut props on him unfortunately.

 

[Cartman88]

It is nice change to see my outright plays in contention going into the final round.

Scott Verplank 2nd
Davis Love 4th
Phil Mickelson 5th

I am going to add a one unit hedge on the immediate dangers:

Jonathan Kaye to win 3-1
Scott Hoch to win 4-1

Now wait for some bastard to shoot 61 and knock them all off !!

 

[Cartman88]

It is also pleasing to see my matchups in solid shape.

Mickelson leads Garcia by 3 shots
Hoch beat Maruyama at the cut
Triplett beat Azinger at the cut
Lonard beat Norman at the cut
Perry leads Andrade by 4 shots

I am adding a couple of 4th round plays:

Browne -115 vs Hnatiuk (ties lose) @ Centrebet
Perry -120 to score under par @ Centrebet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

finals
remain 72 holes 2-1
72 holes
Mick -125 vs Garcia @ Cascade win
Lonard -115 vs Huston @ 365 win
Singh +115 vs Garcia loss

outrights verplank 4th- (winner)singh 38-dimarco 39
units week +18 ytd +25.35

matches week 6-2 ytd 161-162
units week +4.15 ytd -0.27

Singh collects only 2 loss by total of 3 strokes

Heres to ya Ian
:toast:

 

[Ian]

Cheers DTB - thought 50/1 was a good price - 80/1 was a big surprise and more than covered the rest of the week - even went part way to paying for the expensive day out I gave Clive yesterday

 

[Cartman88]

Finally .... a decent profit on a PGA tour event !!



Outrights +26 units

Phil Mickelson 1st
Davis Love 2nd
Scott Verplank 4th (thanks to Ian for pointing out the nice price at Olympic)
Brad Faxon 63rd

Jonathan Kaye hedge - lost
Scott Hoch hedge - lost

Matchups 6-1 +4.24 units

Mickelson beat Garcia by 9 shots
Hoch beat Maruyama at the cut
Triplett beat Azinger at the cut
Lonard beat Norman at the cut
Perry beat Andrade by 1 shot

Browne tied Hnatiuk - lost
Perry 4th round under par - won

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

What about ya Cman:spotting: