Round 4 plays (4pts):
Jordan Spieth to beat Steven Bowditch -175 @ Stan James, Ladbrokes and ToteSport [available generally]
Spieth hasn't been far from the best player from tee-to-green this week, but he has been scoring well and he now starts the final round alongside Bowditch in 4th place. Today it is a matter of experience of dealing with pressure as well as gameplay so there is only one likely winner in this matchup on that basis: Spieth already has seven top-10 finishes this week, Bowditch has no top-50 finishes in his last 13 starts - when he started the weekend in 2nd place in the Texas Open in April, he shot 77-77 over the weekend to finish 69th.
Jonas Blixt to beat Matt Jones -125 @ Stan James [available generally]
With rain forecast for most of the day and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, performances in wet conditions have been a factor in this week's play. Whereas Jones has averaged 1.4 (adjusted) shots higher in wet conditions relative to his average (adjusted) score in the last 5 seasons (the most recent example of which was 75 in rd4 of the Wells Fargo Championship); for Blixt his average (adjusted) score is 1.2 shots lower in wet conditions (the most recent example of which was 66 in the 3rd round of the Nordea Masters).
Rory Sabbatini to beat Tommy Gainey -125 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Stan James and Carib]
Gainey must be trying for the 'Iron Man' title on the PGA Tour: since Tamapa Bay Championship in March, the only weeks that he has not played have been the weeks of The Masters and the U.S. Open. With that schedule, it is not surprising that when he started the final round of the Travelers Championship two weeks ago in 7th place (as this week), he shot 72 to finish 18th. In fact, in the six times that he has started rd4 in the top-10 since the start of last season, he has fallen to 18th, 40th, 31st, 3rd, 52nd, 42nd. With the exception of last year's Crowne Plaza Invitational, he has performed very poorly in this position. With just one top-30 finish in his last 21 starts, he certainly looks opposable with a player who finished 7th in the St Jude Classic last month and 9th in The Heritage.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Watson tb Horschel -110; Watson tb Chappell -138]