Have taken some early prices which seem rather generous
Wessells 66-1 Bet24hrs/Coral
Ogilvy 80-1 Hills
Wayne Smith 125-1 Hills
Wessells 66-1 Bet24hrs/Coral
Ogilvy 80-1 Hills
Wayne Smith 125-1 Hills
Greg Norman Holden Invitational
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
Preview & outright plays:
The last of the co-sanctioned Australasian Tour events of the season and already some of the European contingent have brought their Southern Hemisphere jaunt to an end. Noteworthy though is the late arrival of another, Sergio Garcia. Not that many months ago, he was the precocious teenager taking world golf by storm; this week he will be the elder statesman to the young Aussie contingent who have been as brilliant as Garcia was in 1999, but equally as erratic!
The move away from the searing heat of Perth will help the Europeans who dominated the leaderboard last year. Parsons and Senior did finish in the top-two places, but the visitors filled eight of the next ten places. Absent was Greg Norman who has missed the cut in the two years since his event came back to The Lakes. Also of benefit to the Europeans will be the cool weather. Rain has been falling in Sydney though the forecast for the duration of the event is for fine weather with no more than a chance of thunderstorms over the weekend. Temperatures in the 21-28 degree range will be much more palatable for the Northern Hemisphere contingent.
The three outright plays this week are Sergio Garcia, Pierre Fulke and Dean Robertson. Once again opposing Michael Campbell on value grounds. Garcia is in Australia for this and next week's event, the Ericsson Masters, the scene of his only other visit to Australia: he finished 3rd last year. Provided the rain does clear, this course should play into his hands. He likes hard, fast greens and has noticeably struggled when they have been slow. Slow they were last week in the AT&T, but in playing with his sister and noting his weekend efforts, it is quite easy to discount that performance. Like the other plays, his putter is his biggest asset and that has also been a notable feature of the two previous winners at The Lakes, Lucas Parsons and Michael Long. Expect a strong challenge both this and next from the Spaniard.
It didn't appear to be the case in the 1st round last week, but definitely in the 2nd, the change in climate from Melbourne to Sweden to Perth was a little unsettling for Fulke's game. It should be business as usual this week for the Swede as he picks up from where he left off at the World Matchplay. That was a great effort, but which had been preceded by two wins on the European Tour in the six months beforehand. Despite the rain, his lack of length will not be a problem this week and he will revel playing in Greg Norman's company for the first two days. As strong a chance of winning as Garcia.
Robertson has been in great form since the start of the year. He opened his campaign with a course record 62 at Houghton and was a creditable 3rd overall since it is so difficult to defend such a large early lead. That can excuse his missed the cut the next week, but then he came over to Perth and finished strongly to end in 4th place. He has looked very good throughout and is justly being quoted at 25/1 in places. A good chance of a place finish.
Outright plays:
Sergio Garcia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Pierre Fulke to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Dean Robertson to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
The last of the co-sanctioned Australasian Tour events of the season and already some of the European contingent have brought their Southern Hemisphere jaunt to an end. Noteworthy though is the late arrival of another, Sergio Garcia. Not that many months ago, he was the precocious teenager taking world golf by storm; this week he will be the elder statesman to the young Aussie contingent who have been as brilliant as Garcia was in 1999, but equally as erratic!
The move away from the searing heat of Perth will help the Europeans who dominated the leaderboard last year. Parsons and Senior did finish in the top-two places, but the visitors filled eight of the next ten places. Absent was Greg Norman who has missed the cut in the two years since his event came back to The Lakes. Also of benefit to the Europeans will be the cool weather. Rain has been falling in Sydney though the forecast for the duration of the event is for fine weather with no more than a chance of thunderstorms over the weekend. Temperatures in the 21-28 degree range will be much more palatable for the Northern Hemisphere contingent.
The three outright plays this week are Sergio Garcia, Pierre Fulke and Dean Robertson. Once again opposing Michael Campbell on value grounds. Garcia is in Australia for this and next week's event, the Ericsson Masters, the scene of his only other visit to Australia: he finished 3rd last year. Provided the rain does clear, this course should play into his hands. He likes hard, fast greens and has noticeably struggled when they have been slow. Slow they were last week in the AT&T, but in playing with his sister and noting his weekend efforts, it is quite easy to discount that performance. Like the other plays, his putter is his biggest asset and that has also been a notable feature of the two previous winners at The Lakes, Lucas Parsons and Michael Long. Expect a strong challenge both this and next from the Spaniard.
It didn't appear to be the case in the 1st round last week, but definitely in the 2nd, the change in climate from Melbourne to Sweden to Perth was a little unsettling for Fulke's game. It should be business as usual this week for the Swede as he picks up from where he left off at the World Matchplay. That was a great effort, but which had been preceded by two wins on the European Tour in the six months beforehand. Despite the rain, his lack of length will not be a problem this week and he will revel playing in Greg Norman's company for the first two days. As strong a chance of winning as Garcia.
Robertson has been in great form since the start of the year. He opened his campaign with a course record 62 at Houghton and was a creditable 3rd overall since it is so difficult to defend such a large early lead. That can excuse his missed the cut the next week, but then he came over to Perth and finished strongly to end in 4th place. He has looked very good throughout and is justly being quoted at 25/1 in places. A good chance of a place finish.
Outright plays:
Sergio Garcia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Pierre Fulke to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Dean Robertson to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
For the 2nd week running on the ANZ Tour I have rather too many plays that I like to be comfortable, so I have narrowed them down to these five ...
72-hole plays:
Pierre Fulke to beat Nick O'Hern +105 @ Intertops
For the first time O'Hern performed in front of his home crowd last week; the emotional let-down, plus a mediocre performance on this course last year point to a victory for the tipped Swede
Pierre Fulke to beat David Smail -111 @ William Hill [2 units]
Failure in not winning for once! An impressive late charge to gain 2nd place last week, but Smail returns to a course on which he has struggled. It will be very hard to keep up this momentum
Craig Parry to beat Peter Lonard -120 @ Victor Chandler [3 units] [-110 @ Surrey where ties lose]
A winner on this course in 1995 and 12th in the last two seasons here, Parry looks a banker top-20 bet and that should be enough to beat Lonard who is having difficulty putting four good rounds together this year and finished back in 55th place here last year
Phillip Price to beat David Park -125 @ Easybets [3 units]
Park is featured because of his 5th last year, but he has struggled on the European Tour ever since. Has played in every event so far missing two cuts, including last week where Price finished 19th. Just a gulf in class between the two and Park should be feeling rather fatigued by now
Steen Tinning to beat David Park -111 @ William Hill [3 units]
37th last year, but 4th last week, Tinning should be in the top-25 by the end of the week. Should be enough to oppose Park
72-hole plays:
Pierre Fulke to beat Nick O'Hern +105 @ Intertops
For the first time O'Hern performed in front of his home crowd last week; the emotional let-down, plus a mediocre performance on this course last year point to a victory for the tipped Swede
Pierre Fulke to beat David Smail -111 @ William Hill [2 units]
Failure in not winning for once! An impressive late charge to gain 2nd place last week, but Smail returns to a course on which he has struggled. It will be very hard to keep up this momentum
Craig Parry to beat Peter Lonard -120 @ Victor Chandler [3 units] [-110 @ Surrey where ties lose]
A winner on this course in 1995 and 12th in the last two seasons here, Parry looks a banker top-20 bet and that should be enough to beat Lonard who is having difficulty putting four good rounds together this year and finished back in 55th place here last year
Phillip Price to beat David Park -125 @ Easybets [3 units]
Park is featured because of his 5th last year, but he has struggled on the European Tour ever since. Has played in every event so far missing two cuts, including last week where Price finished 19th. Just a gulf in class between the two and Park should be feeling rather fatigued by now
Steen Tinning to beat David Park -111 @ William Hill [3 units]
37th last year, but 4th last week, Tinning should be in the top-25 by the end of the week. Should be enough to oppose Park
Thanks Stan for all the info and picks. I really like the three outrights, have taken all 3, was particularly impressed with the way Robertson played in Perth and the other 2 are class performers at good odds.
Cambo even too short for me this weekend, I'll just sit on last week's collect - time for the Kiwi dominance to come to an end.
Smail has been great for me, plenty of stories for the newspaper on Hamilton boy making very good.
While I'm here, thanks heaps for the contest too. Have the PGA leaderboard up constantly on the PC all tournament. Delighted to see I've made the top-20 moneylist after the first 2 weeks as I'm much more of a late-season finisher
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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
Cambo even too short for me this weekend, I'll just sit on last week's collect - time for the Kiwi dominance to come to an end.
Smail has been great for me, plenty of stories for the newspaper on Hamilton boy making very good.
While I'm here, thanks heaps for the contest too. Have the PGA leaderboard up constantly on the PC all tournament. Delighted to see I've made the top-20 moneylist after the first 2 weeks as I'm much more of a late-season finisher
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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
Stan
Possibly I was a week early on Fulke play
Also my e/w on him for the money list was (or is?) with Firststake
Anyway have added another bet to this weeks portfolio, Jacobsen had the worst of the weather yet still fired a 5 under par round, out early today he should make up ground on the leaders. I missed the 66-1 available first thing this morning but 40-1 is perfectly acceptable (UK Betting)
Possibly I was a week early on Fulke play
Anyway have added another bet to this weeks portfolio, Jacobsen had the worst of the weather yet still fired a 5 under par round, out early today he should make up ground on the leaders. I missed the 66-1 available first thing this morning but 40-1 is perfectly acceptable (UK Betting)
Stan/Ian
Any thoughts on these 3-balls at the NZTAB early?
1) Struver $2.80, Lonard $2.30, Parsons $3.15
2) Baddeley $3, Campbell $2.25, Scott $3
3) Faldo $3.10, O'Hern $2.10, Tinning $3.
Some later rd options also on the website, tab.co.nz , if you get a chance to run an eye over them I'd be truly grateful.
Any thoughts on these 3-balls at the NZTAB early?
1) Struver $2.80, Lonard $2.30, Parsons $3.15
2) Baddeley $3, Campbell $2.25, Scott $3
3) Faldo $3.10, O'Hern $2.10, Tinning $3.
Some later rd options also on the website, tab.co.nz , if you get a chance to run an eye over them I'd be truly grateful.
Anders, I don't see a great deal of value there. For 3-ball betting, you need to eliminate one of the players and look at the other two as a head-to-head.
Very tentatively, I would point to opposing Campbell of any of them. Over last three years his average 2nd round scores after 1st round positions were:
1-10: 71.25 (14)
11-35: 70.50 (33)
36-70: 71.01 (11)
>70: 72.22 (21)
Numbers in brackets are the occurences. If I read your number right, then backing both Baddeley and Scott would yield net odds of $1.50
That 3-ball appears the best one for me and if I was pressed I'd edge for Baddeley over Scott, but just opposing Campbell is my tentative opinion.
Will look at the others later - have to get First Stake issue out of my head and get on with capping the Senior PGA event for tomorrow.
Very tentatively, I would point to opposing Campbell of any of them. Over last three years his average 2nd round scores after 1st round positions were:
1-10: 71.25 (14)
11-35: 70.50 (33)
36-70: 71.01 (11)
>70: 72.22 (21)
Numbers in brackets are the occurences. If I read your number right, then backing both Baddeley and Scott would yield net odds of $1.50
That 3-ball appears the best one for me and if I was pressed I'd edge for Baddeley over Scott, but just opposing Campbell is my tentative opinion.
Will look at the others later - have to get First Stake issue out of my head and get on with capping the Senior PGA event for tomorrow.
Thanks Stanley.
Was considering Baddeley as a play, now still have 20 minutes to make up my mind thanks to your prompt reply.
Really appreciate your service, horrified to hear about the firststake debacle, hope you guys get out best you can.
Cheers
Ian, threw Jacobsen in too this morning at 50-1; now at 30-1 at TAB. Didn't think I was that big a player
Obviously you guys have a bigger following Down Under than maybe you think, or else the TAB golf pot ain't a biggie!
All the best
Was considering Baddeley as a play, now still have 20 minutes to make up my mind thanks to your prompt reply.
Really appreciate your service, horrified to hear about the firststake debacle, hope you guys get out best you can.
Cheers
Ian, threw Jacobsen in too this morning at 50-1; now at 30-1 at TAB. Didn't think I was that big a player
All the best
have looked at NZ Tab's other 3-balls and they have priced my outsider accordingly
Nothing to offer on the Norman-Ogilvy-Fulke 3-ball and in the other two would have slight leads to Garcia & O'Nalley, but nothing more.
Good luck
Good luck
Mid-point update:
Once again just one play is decided at the cut and once again it is the only one losing at that stage
Tinning missed the cut and lost to Park by three, but had in the process turned in 5-under-par to lead Park and then came home in 44!
In the others, Fulke leads both O'Hern and Smail by three, Parry leads Lonard also by three and Price leads Park by eight.
Situation on the outrights worsened slightly after they stood 1-2 after the 1st round, but Garcia still leads and Fulke is still in a place position in 5th spot. Robertson came back into the frame with a strong 2nd round to stand at 45th. Wouldn't say no to weekend thunderstorms right now
3rd round plays:
Phillip Price to beat Aaron Baddeley +125 @ William Hill
Adam Scott to beat Pierre Fulke -110 @ Intertops
James Mclean to beat Nathan Green +120 @ William Hill [2 units]
Joachim Haeggman to beat Soren Kjeldsen +100 @ Easybets
Once again just one play is decided at the cut and once again it is the only one losing at that stage
Situation on the outrights worsened slightly after they stood 1-2 after the 1st round, but Garcia still leads and Fulke is still in a place position in 5th spot. Robertson came back into the frame with a strong 2nd round to stand at 45th. Wouldn't say no to weekend thunderstorms right now
3rd round plays:
Phillip Price to beat Aaron Baddeley +125 @ William Hill
Adam Scott to beat Pierre Fulke -110 @ Intertops
James Mclean to beat Nathan Green +120 @ William Hill [2 units]
Joachim Haeggman to beat Soren Kjeldsen +100 @ Easybets
Thanks Stan again for your work. Took just one 3-ball y'day, put $50 on both Baddeley and Scott v Cambo and after Cambo double-bogeyed the first, it became a relatively comfortable $50 winner, with Scott beating Baddeley by a stroke.
Still like the chances of an outright too; looking forward to an exciting weekend and will check out those 3rd rd plays soon.
Cheers
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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
Still like the chances of an outright too; looking forward to an exciting weekend and will check out those 3rd rd plays soon.
Cheers
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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
3rd round update: 1-3 and -0.70 units
A small loss on the day with the double-unit play coming through: Mclean won by two shots. Lost one to a tie between Haeggman and Kjeldsen
and one to a very quiet one day from Adam Scott: just one birdie all day, but he only lost by one shot to Fulke. The convincing loser of the day was Price, by six shots. In the outrights, Garcia still leads the tournament, though he has been joined by Baddeley on top of the leaderboard, and Fulke has fallen out a place spot. He now stands in 8th place with Robertson still too far back in 28th.
4th round plays:
Pierre Fulke to beat Steve Alker -138 @ Surrey
Sergio Garcia to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ Surrey [2 units]
Peter Baker to beat David Bransdon -110 @ Surrey
Craig Parry to beat Scott Gardiner -125 @ Intertops [3 units]
David Lynn to beat Carlos Rodiles -125 @ Easybets
A small loss on the day with the double-unit play coming through: Mclean won by two shots. Lost one to a tie between Haeggman and Kjeldsen
4th round plays:
Pierre Fulke to beat Steve Alker -138 @ Surrey
Sergio Garcia to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ Surrey [2 units]
Peter Baker to beat David Bransdon -110 @ Surrey
Craig Parry to beat Scott Gardiner -125 @ Intertops [3 units]
David Lynn to beat Carlos Rodiles -125 @ Easybets
AAAAARRRRRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!
Baddeley birdies the first playoff hole to win it after Garcia misses a 10-footer on the 72nd for a birdie to win
Sergio couldn't buy a putt all day, Baddeley made them from everywhere at times after his typical one-second line-up
One putt changing what was going to be a very good day into a pretty lousy one - lost a college hoops game by a hook today after the team was up on the spread by 7
Thanks anyway guys for your efforts; was a great 4 rounds to follow and am still up nicely up on the year thanks to your advice
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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 02-11-2001).]
Baddeley birdies the first playoff hole to win it after Garcia misses a 10-footer on the 72nd for a birdie to win
Sergio couldn't buy a putt all day, Baddeley made them from everywhere at times after his typical one-second line-up
One putt changing what was going to be a very good day into a pretty lousy one - lost a college hoops game by a hook today after the team was up on the spread by 7
Thanks anyway guys for your efforts; was a great 4 rounds to follow and am still up nicely up on the year thanks to your advice
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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 02-11-2001).]
Final update: 1-4 and -7.58 units for the day; 3-11 and -15.43 units for the week
Unbelievable!!! Must admit I'm in a state of shellshock after the events of this week and this has been a major contributor. Comfortably ahead in all four 72-hole plays at the cut, but only one wins in the end: Price over Park by two. O'Hern shoots eight-under for the final day to overhaul Fulke and beat him by three shots, Smail manages to tie Fulke when ties lose at William Hill and where ties don't lose at Victor Chandler, Parry loses by one shot to Lonard in the 3-unit play
As for the 18-hole plays, two are tied [Fulke and Garcia] at Surrey where ties lose and at Intertops, where ties push, Parry lost to Gardiner by one
In the others, Baker beat Bransdon by two and Lynn lost to Rodiles by seven.
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.75 units
After 36 holes, had the leader and another play in a place position. After 72-holes, Garcia loses in a playoff to Baddeley and Fulke falls to 13th. Robertson was four shots further back. No sign of the weekend-long thunderstorms I had hoped for, but John Parimor's decision to impose a two-shot penalty on Garcia for an 'incorrect drop' cost him the tournament and that was the way this has been
Australasian Tour ytd:
Matchups/props: 21-25; -9.43 units
Outright plays: 4-11; +67.88 units
Unbelievable!!! Must admit I'm in a state of shellshock after the events of this week and this has been a major contributor. Comfortably ahead in all four 72-hole plays at the cut, but only one wins in the end: Price over Park by two. O'Hern shoots eight-under for the final day to overhaul Fulke and beat him by three shots, Smail manages to tie Fulke when ties lose at William Hill and where ties don't lose at Victor Chandler, Parry loses by one shot to Lonard in the 3-unit play
As for the 18-hole plays, two are tied [Fulke and Garcia] at Surrey where ties lose and at Intertops, where ties push, Parry lost to Gardiner by one
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.75 units
After 36 holes, had the leader and another play in a place position. After 72-holes, Garcia loses in a playoff to Baddeley and Fulke falls to 13th. Robertson was four shots further back. No sign of the weekend-long thunderstorms I had hoped for, but John Parimor's decision to impose a two-shot penalty on Garcia for an 'incorrect drop' cost him the tournament and that was the way this has been
Australasian Tour ytd:
Matchups/props: 21-25; -9.43 units
Outright plays: 4-11; +67.88 units
