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In most professional sports, bookmakers are able to do a really good job of balancing out action on both sides of the line. However, baseball presents a little tougher challenge because the game breeds more parity. To show an example of this, let's compare three major North American sports in football, basketball and baseball.
Football - The NFL's best team(s) normally finishes with a 15-1 or 14-2 record. The worst team often finishes around 2-14 or 3-13. In such a short season, this makes for a 12-game disparity.
Basketball - The top NBA team usually wins at least 60 games in an 82-game season. The league's worst club often wins just 20 contests or less, making for about a 40-game difference.
Baseball - Major League Baseball's best team normally wins around 100 games. The least successful club usually finishes with around 60 wins or so, which is a difference of 40 games.
Based on the schedule size and disparity between the best and worst teams, baseball gives underdogs a better chance to win. Going further, those who are into MLB betting can definitely find a good strategy by continually looking for value in underdogs.
Of course, you can't simply wager on underdogs every time and expect to come out ahead in the long run. The following seven-year study shows that much:
Underdogs: 6,917 wins/9,644 losses = -153 betting units
Favorites: 9,619 wins/6,891 losses = -641 betting units
Despite favorites winning 58.26% of the games during this seven-year stretch, underdogs proved to be the superior bet. But as we just alluded to, you've got to pick quality underdogs in order to be a profitable bettor. That said, here are some points to keep in mind when wagering on underdogs.
Don't count out Teams with Good Bullpens - When it comes to how the public views matchups, starting pitching is always the main focus. However, bettors should look just as closely at bullpens because relief pitchers go a long way towards deciding how a game turns out. And if you're looking at an underdog with a very solid bullpen, they may not be such an underdog after all.
In most professional sports, bookmakers are able to do a really good job of balancing out action on both sides of the line. However, baseball presents a little tougher challenge because the game breeds more parity. To show an example of this, let's compare three major North American sports in football, basketball and baseball.
Football - The NFL's best team(s) normally finishes with a 15-1 or 14-2 record. The worst team often finishes around 2-14 or 3-13. In such a short season, this makes for a 12-game disparity.
Basketball - The top NBA team usually wins at least 60 games in an 82-game season. The league's worst club often wins just 20 contests or less, making for about a 40-game difference.
Baseball - Major League Baseball's best team normally wins around 100 games. The least successful club usually finishes with around 60 wins or so, which is a difference of 40 games.
Based on the schedule size and disparity between the best and worst teams, baseball gives underdogs a better chance to win. Going further, those who are into MLB betting can definitely find a good strategy by continually looking for value in underdogs.
Of course, you can't simply wager on underdogs every time and expect to come out ahead in the long run. The following seven-year study shows that much:
Underdogs: 6,917 wins/9,644 losses = -153 betting units
Favorites: 9,619 wins/6,891 losses = -641 betting units
Despite favorites winning 58.26% of the games during this seven-year stretch, underdogs proved to be the superior bet. But as we just alluded to, you've got to pick quality underdogs in order to be a profitable bettor. That said, here are some points to keep in mind when wagering on underdogs.
Don't count out Teams with Good Bullpens - When it comes to how the public views matchups, starting pitching is always the main focus. However, bettors should look just as closely at bullpens because relief pitchers go a long way towards deciding how a game turns out. And if you're looking at an underdog with a very solid bullpen, they may not be such an underdog after all.
