Guys I need some help here!

[Bluemound Freak]

Guys I have been looking over games this season and making my choices for how I play them all wrong! I have been getting my ass handed to me the past couple of weeks and feel as if I have lost touch with a reasonable system for playing!

I am asking you guys on the forum that have been doing this longer than me and have obviously more knowledge on capping than me, to please help me find my way back into this because I'm taking a damn beating! And if you are like me you only take a few wippings before you learn to stay away from what is wipping you and I don't want to give up the gaming!

I would appreciate any advice that I could get from you guys and I'll thank your replies in advance!

Here is a little gift for your time, I belive some of you call it MOJO!

 

[Neemer]

Everybody goes through the dreaded slump. I've yet to met anyone that has completely avoioded it, especially if you bet on numerous games throughout the week. Lots of different ways you can handle your situation, but works best for me is to simply walk away for an extended period of time. Some folks start following other cappers, some start playing opposites, etc...etc.... What works for you, might not work for someone else, so it's up to you to decide which route you want to go.

I'd suggest taking a step back and taking some time off. Clear that head of yours and come back stronger than ever. If your strategies aren't panning out anymore, maybe it's time to start thinking about different avenues you should pursue to get the results that you desire. It will be quite a bit easier if you stop betting on games and get all those cobwebs out of your noggin'. I've tried it the other way, and you deny yourself full concentration on the problem at hand....

 

[SKEETER1]

Totally agree W/Neemer

Totally agree W/Neemer

But even when in a winning streak and a loss or two comes....BK off for a bit and ask UR self R these plays U would make when U have only $25 in UR account and UR willing to risk it all? Its a must to back off not only when losing but also when in a streak, dont just play a game when U havent done any analysis of it....and dont just go w/a fav just because Vegas has them as the Fav and should win....sit bk and look over all data....we all have lost...many times....a good gambler knows when to back off and the most impotant....U dont have to make it up overnight...their will be games tomorrow and the nx day and the nx ect....be patient and find U role...We all play a roll its just a matter of finding what role UR playing

 

[Fwizard]

we all go thru slumps --if you have a method that has had success before you may just want to back off for a while until your luck turns around--how long is a while is up to you -but I would continue to come up with plays and just not bet them until they start to win ---a couple of years ago I posted plays every day on another site--for one year I won one month and then lost the next and then won the next --if I had backed off on those losing months I would have made some nice change--of course that is easy to say now--remember this is not a sprint but a marathon!! Good Luck

 

[buddy]

I don't mean to be harsh, but there is a BIG DIFFERENCE between a legitmate slump and an inability to handicap.

Nobody wants to believe that they can't handicap, but the fact of the matter is there are MANY who can't.

If you pick 5 games off a full card, win 3 and lose 2, BUT your two losses are absolute disasters, that is a BIG RED HANDICAPPING FLAG.

Going 3-2 with two total disasters IS MUCH WORSE than going 1-4 where your four losses were by five points or less.

A decent veteran handicapper will RARELY get blown out of a game. He may make other plays that do not cover, but hardly ever will he get blown out of a game.

Handicapping is very difficult. Vegas has been at this stuff for a helluva long time and they are very good at what they do. A decent veteran handicapper has developed a kind of "feel" for what is going on....but that "feel" comes with a price. His "feel" allows him to avoid "most" of the pitfalls and with any luck, he is able to identify a matchup that "MIGHT" be a play.

My advice would be to stop wagering now. It sounds like you have several issues to be addressed and continue to wager will only make things much worse.

You might want to start asking questions on Money Management and Handicapping Methods. Even if you start there, you're faced with a major problem because you don't know if you're talking to someone knowledgeable or the village idiot.

This is risky business. Be very careful.

 

[ferdville]

money management, money management and more money management is the key. however, if you can't handicap, it will only limit your losses. keep records. don't stop keeping the records even after you have just gone 0-5. there are also some interesting books available. no easy ways out there - but you might pick up one or two things from each book. listen to the old timers.

 

[Fwizard]

Buddy, don't you feel that the games you win or lose that are close to the spread(under 4 points in football) are pretty much all decided by luck and games that are blowouts (more than 7 points) are decided by handicapping. I feel this is true and also feel if you bet 10 games on a given sunday that 5 of these (normally) will fall into each situation..just a thought

 

[Bluemound Freak]

I lost three games for 2 units each last weekend by the damn .5 hook! Two totals and one Side! I love Seattle!

I appreciate all the info guys and I think I'll probably keep on gaming but without the wreckless abandon that I have in the past couple of months! If you start thinking that you are big time when your not ( money management ) Your typical bad weekend can really take a bite out of your crime if you know what I mean!

My unit plays have gone from 25.00 up to 100.00 :nono: and that was a mistake on my part! So I have decided to drop my units back to 20.00 and just start back at this with a little more caution than in the past! I mainly got a big head when I started bustin my man for a grand or two a week and then my negative swing about knocked me out of my chair! Instead of keeping to my original strategy I got cocky and that spells TROUBLE, especially if you don't have the skills to be a big time player. So back to Mediocraty and playin safe! once again thank you fellas for the info I'll definately use it to my advantage!

 

[BAINS]

Bluemound Freak, best advice is to keep it simple.

Bet on the team's that are good teams, but have value (meaning not over inflated favorites) I pounded the Bear's the last few weeks vs Tampa, Detroit, Jaxsonville, and Vikings. They are a good choice as their is value with them. Pats as well covered 8 of last 9.

Don't get caught into taking SOFT favorites like Oakland, Indy, Green Bay. This year the bears and the PATs were the teams to take.

before you bet analyze is this a solid favorite, ie good track record, GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAM WILL COVER ( and you get lower lines than offensive teams like RAMS)

Another important rule i use is NEVER BET ON A BAD TEAM, BET AGAINST THEM.

 

[Neemer]

Bains...

How bout giving me a definition of a "bad" team? You make it sound like all you have to do to be successful is lay your coins on the "better" team. If it were this easy then I'd say that the majority of the bookies around the country would be seeking employment.

 

[BAINS]

Bad team's this year were, carolina, Colts, Detroit, Cincy, New Orleans, Bills, Vikings
These teams were flat out terrible, what do they all have in common? i'll tell you BAD COACHING!

Carolina coach fired, colts coach fired, Vikings coach fired,Detroit coach will be fired, Haslett is a terrible coach and should be fired, and i don't have to mention how bad the Bills coach is. It all starts with coaching in this league.

If you are primarily a favorite bettor I know that if you pick your spots during the season you can win vs the books. To answer your question then why are bookies not going bankrupt, because bettors always try and outsmart themselves, and don't simply take the better team. A prime example of this is this weekend's game with people who bet on Baltimore. Their reason for taking Baltimore is reasons like They're the champs, i see a close game, The can turn it on? This is defenitely weak logic, as you will see i will have proved my point after Miami wins this weekend, and you see POsts I can't believe i bet on Grbac.

 

[redsfann]

Bains--

Bains--

Yes, record-wise the teams you mentioned are bad teams--
now go and take a look at their ATS records. Your logic here(a stretch, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt this once) is all wet.....

BTW, I HATE having to turn off my signature everytime I want to post a message....

 

[BAINS]

Not so fast my friends

Not so fast my friends

I never said in my post to bet against every bad team every game and you will make money. read again I said If you pick your spots such as Chicago at Detroit 2 weeks ago and New England at Carolina were good spots to go vs the weak teams. Weak teams cover the spread too, but when they play a good team they more than often DON"T COVER THE SPREAD. Trust me this strategy works.