Here it is and please give credit to the one who came up with this.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #1
Bet the underdog when the favored team (for the game) is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
Explanation: This makes perfect sense. Why would any team be favored by more points in the second half than the game itself? It commonly occurs when the underdog is blowing out the favorite, pulling off a "shocking" upset at halftime. Many bettors have a knee-jerk reaction and automatically go with the favorite in this spot to rebound big in the second half, which is a big mistake. Let?s look at the numbers:
2002 Results: 8-10-3 (44 percent wins)
2003 Results: 6-1-0 (86 percent wins)
20-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: This continues to be one of the best moneymakers of any halftime angle over the past twenty seasons. However, note that there were far fewer plays in 2003 (just 7) than 2002 (21 plays). I attribute this decline in number of plays to oddsmakers catching on to this angle and adjusting the numbers. It will be interesting to see how many opportunities we have to bet this angle in 2004.
HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #2
When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
Explanation: What happens is this -- the team with the lead gets more conservative offensively and rushes the ball more than it passes. This consumes lots of clock time. The leading team can also bring in multiple defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. In blowout games, field goals become far less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a short field goal the losing team will often go for it on fourth down. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. These factors all support a low-scoring second half.
2002 Results: 24-12-1 (66 percent wins)
2003 Results: 20-14-1 (59 percent wins)
20-Year Results: 60 percent wins
Comments: In 2003, this angle went through a bumpy ride in the later half of the season, as it became more widely-known. Despite this, 20 wins and 14 losses still represents a 59 percent win rate, slightly under the 20-year results of 60 percent wins. I give this angle at least one more year before it bites the dust.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #3
When the road team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
Explanation: This is closely related to the previous angle (#2). But, it's even stronger. It doesn't matter if the road team is favored or not. This happens for the reasons previously explained. But it's even stronger when the road team is winning by a wide margin. The home fans often become so upset they turn on the home team and the result is a dull, low-scoring second half.
2002 Results: 10-2-1 (83 percent wins)
2003 Results: 10-5 (66 percent wins)
20-Year Results: 63 percent wins
Comments: This is a subset of the previous angle and is a consistent moneymaker almost every year. Last year, this angle produced 66 percent wins. This continues to be one of the best halftime betting angles ever -- and now since it's been released I fear it will eventually decline as more bettors pound the under in games where this angle applies.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #4
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, bet UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: Why are the games where 17 points (exactly) were scored in the first-half more likely to go UNDER the total in the second-half? First, oddsmakers tend to post totals slightly higher than ?17? for the second half in these games. This is a high total in a close low-scoring game, where play calling should be conservative. A ?one possession? game means one mistake can cost a team the victory. Under these circumstances, coaches are reluctant to take chances. They want long, sustained drives -- and ball control to keep the lead. These teams value field goals and will gear the offense towards picking up three-points -- which can be critical in a 10-7 type of game. Teams are not at all interested in airing out the offense and risking what is currently a very close contest.
2002 Results: 14-3-1 (82 percent wins)
2003 Results: 5-12 (29 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: 2003 was the worst season ever for this angle, which normally hits about 56 percent. I attribute the bad performance to a statistical anomaly. I'll keep this on the recommendation list for another year and see what happens.
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SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #5
When 13 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, bet UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: Just as in games where 17-points were scored in the first-half, ?13? points means the defenses are playing very well. First halves with 13 points scored almost always means one touchdown and two field goals ? not exactly a scoring frenzy. Again ? offenses tend to be more conservative in games like this and are more likely to play for first downs and field goals.
2002 Results: 13-11 (54 percent wins)
2003 Results: 4-13 (23 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 55 percent wins
Comments: Another angle that performs well over a 20-ear period, which hit the rocks in 2003. Games that were either 10-3 or 7-6 a halftime (the most common scores for this angle to apply) are worth a look at least one more season.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #6:
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: Note that while the 17-point first-half angle goes UNDER 56 percent of the time in the second-half (see Angle #4), the percentages are even higher when we narrow this down to games with game totals at 38 or less. In fact, we get a 15 percent increase (based on 66 trials over the past twenty years. Consider this additional fact: In all games where the game total is 38 or lower, the second-half went UNDER 52.4 percent of the time while the OVER cashed only 47.6 percent. So, games expected to be low-scoring do tend to go UNDER in the second-half by their very nature.
2002 Results: 3-0 (100 percent wins)
2003 Results: 3-3 (50 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 69 percent wins
Comments: This was a break-even angle in 2003. Considering how poorly Angle #4 performed last season, it?s remarkable that this related angle hit 50 percent.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #7:
When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (Caveat: The game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by 15 or more points)
Explanation: Note that games which are expected to be offensive shootouts -- based on game totals 42.5 and higher -- tend to go OVER in the second-half when exactly 21 points were scored in the first half. This happens for a good reason. First, 21 first-half points probably means a halftime score is 14-7. It also means touchdowns have been reasonably easy to come by. Furthermore, the losing team will be much more interested in scoring 7 points than kicking a field goal. It also means that if the team in the lead goes ahead by 14 points, the losing team will panic and go for the end zone on every drive. This helps the OVER in the second-half.
2002 Results: 5-0 (100 percent wins)
2003 Results: 3-2 (60 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 64 percent wins
Comments: This angle went 3-2. Not many plays, but it always seems to produce a unit or two of profit each year.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #8
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (Caveat: The game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by 15 or more points)
Explanation: An interesting part of my research was comparing results for games with 23 versus 24 first-half points. One would think the second-half results would be about the same. But when 24 points are scored, UNDERS prevail slightly. The kink in the number ?23? (and 30, also) are worth investigating. What I mean by "kink" is that if 23 points were scored in the first-half, it usually means two touchdowns and three field goals. That's five scores in 30 minutes. That's means a lot of yardage and ball movement for one half. By contrast, 24 means only 4 scoring possessions -- so while the actual points scored was HIGHER, the offenses may have racked up more yardage and are better primed for an OVER when 23 points were scored. If you combine this with the fact that the number 30 also produces significantly more OVERS than UNDERS (and 30 is a close cousin to 23 -- given the scoring multiples), I'll stand on this hypothesis.
2002 Results: 2-8-1 (20 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: After a dismal performance in 2002, I did not play this angle in 2003. However, it may be worth looking at for at least another year based on the overall winning percentages.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #9
When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (Caveat: The game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Explanation: More on the first-half scoring numbers ?23? and ?30? -- what's interesting is that no other first-half totals from 9 through 32 produced a profit for second-half OVERS -- except 26 (a very rare occurrence). This is not surprising, since 26 is related to 23 as it probably means a game of many field goals.
2002 Results: 3-1 (75 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: This angle does not produce many plays, but has done well over the years. I did not track the angle last season/ I?m bringing it back for an encore in 2004.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #10 (NFL PLAYOFFS ONLY)
When 16 points or less are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: In the past twenty years of playoff games, second-half scoring went OVER and UNDER about an equal number of times -- with a slight lean to the UNDER -- 52.5 percent of the time. However, when the first-half was very low scoring, the second-half score was likely to go UNDER as well. Playoff games are more intense than regular season games, and the best defenses often rise to the occasion. Hence there is more consistency with second-half UNDERS in low scoring games.
Twenty-Year Results: 68 percent wins
Comments: Let's break this down further:
(First-Half Points Scored -- Second-Half Result)
9 points scored or less -- 9 UNDERS / 3 OVERS
10 points scored -- 5 UNDERS / 5 OVERS
12 points scored -- 1 UNDER / 1 OVER
13 points scored -- 11 UNDERS / 1 OVER **
14 points scored -- 2 UNDER / 1 OVER
16 points scored -- 3 UNDERS / 2 OVERS
**Note the staggering 11-1 record for UNDERS in playoff games when the first-half produces (exactly 13 points). If this is not a monster angle to play, I don't know what is.
CONCLUSIONS: In 2002, these angles went a combined 70-36-7, or 66 percent wins. The next year in 2003, the win percentage declined to 56-47-1, or 55 percent wins. In all of my work in sports handicapping, I am most proud of these angles. Sad to say, these angles may eventually become a victim of their own success. I predict we probably have one more year of profits before they become obsolete.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #4
When exactly 17 first half points are scored and the game total is 37 or higher the game goes UNDER 72% of the games.
