Handicapping 101 (If I'm wrong on this, I'm sure gonna' look stupid)

[buddy]

OREGON STATE -13' vs. Portland

Portland is coming off a Home Fav win/cover and a prior Home dog loss/cover.

OREGON STATE L 5 games is 0-5 SU/ATS yet they're laying 13' points.

Nice try Vegas.

I'm still stupid but I ain't as stupid as I was last week.

I can think of nearly 200 other teams that would be 0-5 SU/ATS if they had to play Oregon, Stanford, Cal (all on the road), UCLA and USC.

Lay the wood.

OREGON STATE -13'

 

[nighthorse]

stupid

stupid

When you stick your neck out, sometimes you get smacked. People with confidence and guts keep coming back. Those are the people who eventually get it done. I hope you end up looking like a genius because I've got a small play on it myself. Wins have been hard to come by for OSU. Guessing they'll appreciate this opportunity.

Besides, it's a good excuse to say, "I'm for the Beavers!"

Good luck.

 

[SmashMouth]

Buddy I agree. I had overlooked it iniatially I kept coming back to it though. Good luck. I may ride your coat tail on this one. If you don'r mind That is

 

[loophole]

got to disagree with you on this one buddy. this is a really bad scheduling spot for ore st. their entire season is riding on the home game with washington on thursday, a team they trail by a half game in the race for the eighth and final pac ten tourney slot. portland state is a bad team but they did play within single digits at pepperdine last week and miraculously beat oregon earlier in the season, so they could claim the mythical state championship with a win tonight. that's the kind of thing that can motivate a team like portland who have nothing else to play for but respect.

first question that jumped out when i saw this line is how does a team that averages barely sixty points a game cover a double digit line? unless you think they'll hold portland in the forties they are really going to have to step up their scoring to cover this number. i admit portland is bad defensively but in corvallis it's gotten to the point this season where most of the beavers are reluctant to shoot the ball.

as this game means absolutely nothing to oregon state and given portland's improved play last week, i'm going to give the pilots a go tonight.

 

[buddy]

Loophole,

Very perceptive analysis.

I was a little concerned about Portland coming off a win/cover and then getting this generous number.

And your mentioning the earlier win over Oregon and the single digit home dog loss/cover vs. Pepperdine should not be ignored.

But if Vegas is looking for Portland money, this has to be the "Blue Light Special".

I think if this line was half of what it is now, the books would still get an abundance of Portland money.

But the cornerstone of my handicapping has always been the motto, "Vegas does not hand out gifts" and this line, plus everything that accompanies it, sure looks like a gift to me.