For those out there that are maybe new to betting baseball or just not quite sure how to start approaching it as far as handicapping the sport, hopefully this post will give you a bit of an idea on some of the things you may wanna take a look at. Of course, every game is unique. You may have same situations that will carry more weight in one game than another and of course this also has to be figured in to a degree when comparing to what the line is set at, but hopefully you?ll be able to recognize some of this over time. Anyways, hopefully the following will be of help to some. Below is a lot of what I call the basic things I like to look at of course there?s still many other little angles and and tricks that I?ve picked up on over the last several years and hopefully will continue to pick up on in coming seasons as well. Handicapping is a never ending learning experience. At least that?s how I like to approach it. You gotta be willing to keep an open mind and even change with the current times if that?s what?ll give you the edge.
Part 1:
PITCHING
Starting pitching you could say is probably the biggest factor or at least the biggest factor when reflecting what the line will open at.
Pitchers current form: This is a very good indication of what you might be seeing out of the current starting pitcher for the game you are capping. I would suggest taking a glance at how they?ve performed over the last 3 games such as ERA, walks, strikeouts, whip(walks and hits per innings pitched) Also, if their recent performance is way out of the ordinary?good or bad(which is what you?re looking for) I also, like to go back and do a quick review of those games to see if there is a reason for it, or if they are just in a good groove or just simply struggling.
Past history of the pitcher vs the hitters they will be facing: I always like to take a look at how well the hitters have hit the starter in the past. I don?t care how good or how bad the pitcher is perceived by people, certain pitchers have problems with certain hitters or teams and vice versa with certain hitters having problems with particular pitchers. It?s all part of the psychological factor. Players are human they?re not robots. A good example may be say a Greg Maddux vs a team such as Arizona. I believe Maddux has only like 1 career win in 8 starts vs Arizona and it?s a situation where many of the Arizona players have much higher averages vs Maddux than the miniscule .223 average that Maddux has allowed to hitters over the course of his Hall of Fame career.
The pitcher?s current season and career average allowed vs Lefty or Righty batters: Many times a team may have a dominately left-handed or right-handed batting lineup and sometimes you can find some really good mismatches here. It?s not uncommon for a pitcher to really struggle vs hitters batting from a certain side of the plate. The reason is usually simple, mostly being their style of pitching or the movement on the pitches. There are times where a manager will juggle the starting lineup in situations like this, but you?d be surprised at how little this is done.
The pitcher?s ERA at home vs their ERA on the road: Many times, you?ll have a pitcher?s ERA on the road upwards of 1.5 or even 2 full runs higher than their home ERA. This all plays into the psychological factor as well. Certain pitchers can?t handle the pressure of pitching on the road or in unfamiliar surroundings and checking out the difference in ERA of home/away is one way I determine how a pitcher may perform if the pressure starts heating up in the game. Another thing I like to look at is what average the pitcher allows when runners reach base or get into scoring position and compare it with the overall average that they allow to hitters. This plays right along with the home/away pressure factor.
Pitchers record and ERA in Day or Night games: This may not seem like a big deal, but it is a factor. Bottom line, some pitchers fair better pitching at night than during the day, or vice versa. I?m not gonna get into my many reasons or opinions on this, but I do consider it another very variable that is useful in handicapping.
Pitch Count: Has the pitcher had extremely high pitch counts in consecutive games when that particular pitcher is not used to be worked that hard? Just something to keep in mind. Sometimes it?s hard to apply the right amount of weight on this factor, but it is something to keep in mind. Also, if a certain pitcher is used to going say every 4 or 5 days, but misses a start for what ever reason, you might want to approach the next start cautiously as pitchers get used to routines and sometimes things like this will throw them off.
The pitchers scouting report: Is the pitcher a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball type pitcher?? This is another thing that can play a bigger role than many think. Certain teams will struggle vs a certain type of pitcher. Many times a ground ball pitcher will really struggle in Domes or other stadiums that are played on turf. Balls usually shoot through the infield much quicker meaning more baserunners, etc. Likewise, many fly ball pitchers will struggle in places where the ball carries well. One example of this would be at Bank One Ball Park in Arizona where the ball really carries well when the roof is open, thus a lot of times you?ll see very high scoring games, especially when you have a fly ball type pitcher on the mound. Also a good example with ground ball type pitchers would be Coors Field in Colorado. There was a big buzz going around last season with the ?humidor? factor keeping the scoring way down there. True, this probably did have some bearing on the lower scores, but if you take a look at the type of pitchers Colorado is starting to display on the mound, they are of the ground ball variety such as Aaron Cook, Denny Stark, Jason Jennings to name a few. Nothing will keep scoring down more in a light air ball carrying stadium more than balls being ground into inning ending double plays and continuing being pounded into the ground.
The pitchers past history with the home plate umpire. Home plate umpires play a huge role in the outcome of a game. They?re the element that can get the pitcher ahead or behind in the count which could lead to a crucial game deciding next pitch?grooved batting practice speed fastball or chaser type pitch. I like to check how the pitcher has faired in the past with the particular home ump. A pitcher that relies on the low strike call to be effective will definitely benefit more with an Ump that will call the low strike than one that won?t. Or say a control pitcher that relies on good control rather than outstanding stuff, will definitely fair better with an Ump that has a wider strikezone and that will give the corner strike call.
Bullpens: The bullpen can be just as important as the starting pitching in certain games especially if you don?t have an ace or a workhorse on the mound that is expected to go deep into a game. It?s not uncommon to have the bullpen playing more than a 1/3 of the game. It?s always a good idea to check how the bullpen has performed over the last 5 to 10 games?it could be the difference!
"Handicapping Baseball" is continued in the next post.
Part 1:
PITCHING
Starting pitching you could say is probably the biggest factor or at least the biggest factor when reflecting what the line will open at.
Pitchers current form: This is a very good indication of what you might be seeing out of the current starting pitcher for the game you are capping. I would suggest taking a glance at how they?ve performed over the last 3 games such as ERA, walks, strikeouts, whip(walks and hits per innings pitched) Also, if their recent performance is way out of the ordinary?good or bad(which is what you?re looking for) I also, like to go back and do a quick review of those games to see if there is a reason for it, or if they are just in a good groove or just simply struggling.
Past history of the pitcher vs the hitters they will be facing: I always like to take a look at how well the hitters have hit the starter in the past. I don?t care how good or how bad the pitcher is perceived by people, certain pitchers have problems with certain hitters or teams and vice versa with certain hitters having problems with particular pitchers. It?s all part of the psychological factor. Players are human they?re not robots. A good example may be say a Greg Maddux vs a team such as Arizona. I believe Maddux has only like 1 career win in 8 starts vs Arizona and it?s a situation where many of the Arizona players have much higher averages vs Maddux than the miniscule .223 average that Maddux has allowed to hitters over the course of his Hall of Fame career.
The pitcher?s current season and career average allowed vs Lefty or Righty batters: Many times a team may have a dominately left-handed or right-handed batting lineup and sometimes you can find some really good mismatches here. It?s not uncommon for a pitcher to really struggle vs hitters batting from a certain side of the plate. The reason is usually simple, mostly being their style of pitching or the movement on the pitches. There are times where a manager will juggle the starting lineup in situations like this, but you?d be surprised at how little this is done.
The pitcher?s ERA at home vs their ERA on the road: Many times, you?ll have a pitcher?s ERA on the road upwards of 1.5 or even 2 full runs higher than their home ERA. This all plays into the psychological factor as well. Certain pitchers can?t handle the pressure of pitching on the road or in unfamiliar surroundings and checking out the difference in ERA of home/away is one way I determine how a pitcher may perform if the pressure starts heating up in the game. Another thing I like to look at is what average the pitcher allows when runners reach base or get into scoring position and compare it with the overall average that they allow to hitters. This plays right along with the home/away pressure factor.
Pitchers record and ERA in Day or Night games: This may not seem like a big deal, but it is a factor. Bottom line, some pitchers fair better pitching at night than during the day, or vice versa. I?m not gonna get into my many reasons or opinions on this, but I do consider it another very variable that is useful in handicapping.
Pitch Count: Has the pitcher had extremely high pitch counts in consecutive games when that particular pitcher is not used to be worked that hard? Just something to keep in mind. Sometimes it?s hard to apply the right amount of weight on this factor, but it is something to keep in mind. Also, if a certain pitcher is used to going say every 4 or 5 days, but misses a start for what ever reason, you might want to approach the next start cautiously as pitchers get used to routines and sometimes things like this will throw them off.
The pitchers scouting report: Is the pitcher a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball type pitcher?? This is another thing that can play a bigger role than many think. Certain teams will struggle vs a certain type of pitcher. Many times a ground ball pitcher will really struggle in Domes or other stadiums that are played on turf. Balls usually shoot through the infield much quicker meaning more baserunners, etc. Likewise, many fly ball pitchers will struggle in places where the ball carries well. One example of this would be at Bank One Ball Park in Arizona where the ball really carries well when the roof is open, thus a lot of times you?ll see very high scoring games, especially when you have a fly ball type pitcher on the mound. Also a good example with ground ball type pitchers would be Coors Field in Colorado. There was a big buzz going around last season with the ?humidor? factor keeping the scoring way down there. True, this probably did have some bearing on the lower scores, but if you take a look at the type of pitchers Colorado is starting to display on the mound, they are of the ground ball variety such as Aaron Cook, Denny Stark, Jason Jennings to name a few. Nothing will keep scoring down more in a light air ball carrying stadium more than balls being ground into inning ending double plays and continuing being pounded into the ground.
The pitchers past history with the home plate umpire. Home plate umpires play a huge role in the outcome of a game. They?re the element that can get the pitcher ahead or behind in the count which could lead to a crucial game deciding next pitch?grooved batting practice speed fastball or chaser type pitch. I like to check how the pitcher has faired in the past with the particular home ump. A pitcher that relies on the low strike call to be effective will definitely benefit more with an Ump that will call the low strike than one that won?t. Or say a control pitcher that relies on good control rather than outstanding stuff, will definitely fair better with an Ump that has a wider strikezone and that will give the corner strike call.
Bullpens: The bullpen can be just as important as the starting pitching in certain games especially if you don?t have an ace or a workhorse on the mound that is expected to go deep into a game. It?s not uncommon to have the bullpen playing more than a 1/3 of the game. It?s always a good idea to check how the bullpen has performed over the last 5 to 10 games?it could be the difference!
"Handicapping Baseball" is continued in the next post.
