Handicapping Methods

[kingfin66]

Here's another topic that will hopefully help us learn more about the ponies. Does anybody have any interesting handicapping methods they would like to share? That's a dumb question, because obviously everybody does.

Are you a disciple of pure speed (Beyer or other) handicapping. Do you like extensive trip handicapping. Have you read books by Davidowitz, Beyer, Pizzolla, Lifkin, etal., that have helped you?

Do you incorporate a wide range of handicapping methods and angles depending on the type of race? Do you specialize in one type of race.

Personally, I try to stick with sprints because I think that it is much easier to predict the pace scenario. I am going to begin practicing at handicapping turf races because (1) the intrique me and (2) they seem to generate more longshots than dirt races.

Last year, I purchased a copy of Michael Pizzolla's book, Handicapping Magic. It was interesting in that it presented totally different angles and methodology than I had ever known. Unfortunately, it seems to work better in large field races than short fields. It was definitely his methodology that pointed me toward Funny Cide.

I also like the angle of betting horses who have carried speed for a signifcant period against better (higher class) horses.

What angles/methods do you all like?

 

[Penguinfan]

I would gladly trade you all my handicapping methods for a decent wagering strategy, that is the elusive part of the game in my opinion. If you stick to 1 or 2 tracks and get to kow them well then picking winners is not that difficult really. The most important thing I have learned is when to pass a race and save my money for a better shot later, but all things being equal I would rather have a decent wagering strategy.

Penguinfan

 

[Dogfish]

lately have been tracking owners,best so far buffy part owner of buffythecenterfold.easy win in 8th yesterday at hol.excellant coverage on tvg yesterday!

 

[kingfin66]

Betting

Betting

Penguinfan,

I totally agree with you regarding betting strategies. This is especially true given the increased takeouts at tracks. There are several different sound strategies for the various exotics bets, although I am yet to come across anything exceptional for superfecta's. In my opinion, Steve Davidowitz, covers this subject the best in his book. I actually reproduced his Appendix and the wagers and printed it out. I use it with all my handicapping. The important thing is that you can't force bets, they need to be evident. You are welcome to a copy of my Word document with the various strategies.

As an example, I followed Davidowitz partial exacta wheel strategy for the Derby using Funny Cide as a key over selected contenders (Peace Rules, Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted), then used him underneath those players as well. The last part is optional, but when you're gunning to beat EM, you had better do it. This exacta is in conjunction with a win bet on the key (or prime horse). I included a place wager as well.

For the trifecta, I used his Double win key, spread format, plus optional exactas. This is a fancy way of saying that I used two win keys (FC, EM) with three horses in the place (FC, EM, TMW) position and six horses (EM, FC, TMW, Scrimshaw, IE and Offlee Wild) in the show position. None of this is meant as bragging but just as an example of a method that allows you to go for the homerun, but still cover your ass.

If anybody would like a copy of my file, Exotic Betting Strategies, please e-mail me at kingfin66@cs.com. This is a compilation of strategies used by Beyer, Dick Mitchell and Davidowitz. I will begin searching for it now as I need to print a fresh copy anyway.

 

[Valuist]

I have found the best method to be this:

Buy the Racing Forms Weekly Charts, which have all the full result charts from all the major tracks. Pick a circuit, or two or three, and go thru each result chart and determine who really was the best horse. If there was a brutal pace and a horse who survived and wasn't beaten much was probably far superior to the closer who picked up the pieces and passed him. OTOH, look for closers who hold their own in very slow paced races. Its difficult for a closer to make up ground against speed horses who are allowed to coast. Keep a journal of horses you are waiting to bet back in their next start....then start firing away.

 

[kingfin66]

Valuist,

That's an awesome angle. It would also go hand-in-hand with the Key Race method, although that one takes some work (but doesn't all good handicapping).

I'm kind of a cheapskate, so what I do is but and paste the result charts to Word and same them to disc. This works well as the full charts have good race detail.

I may have to find time to start following other tracks, however, as my local track, EmDowns, has a shortage of horses, even fewer good horses and is very hard to handicap. The SoCal tracks seem to be devoid of good prices, but have better stock running. What circuits do you follow? In the summer? In the winter?

 

[Valuist]

Kingfish--

Over the past few years I've learned to follow this:

Jan-Feb: Gulfstream, Aqueduct
March- GP, Aqu, Hawthorne
April-June, Kentucky, New York, Chicago, Hollywood
July-August- I don't bet too much. I'll occasionally go to bet Saratoga or Arlington but to me these are the toughest months because of how horses react to heat. I spend more time on the golf course
Sept-Dec: New York, Chicago, Kentucky

Gulfstream has great racing but serves as a feeder for Keeneland and late Aqueduct/Belmont. Churchill has a lot of shipouts and shipins between both New York and Chicago so if you play those tracks you really need to play CD also.

Hollywood is the only Southern California track I really pay attention to. I follow the major races at Santa Anita and have done ok there but it just makes for too long of a day. To me, Del Mar is the toughest track to bet so I don't even bother trying.

 

[Penguinfan]

Nice thing about what valuist is suggesting is you can get a free account with DRF.com and put those horses in a watch list and they will notify you by e-mial when the horse is entered in another race.

Penguinfan

 

[Valuist]

He's right. I believe they call it "Stable Manager" or something like that. If you play more than 1 circuit, its easy to miss out on horses you've been waiting for to run back.

 

[kingfin66]

Valuist,

It's not Kingfish, it's KINGFIN, KINGFIN, KINGFIN, or just Mike.

Whenever I glance the Hollywood (and other SoCal tracks) results the payouts are always very small. Where can you get prices? Of course nothing is as bad as the Northern Cal Hollendorfer/Russell Baze payouts.

 

[Mr Hockey]

lately have been tracking owners,best so far buffy part owner of buffythecenterfold.easy win in 8th yesterday at hol.excellant coverage on tvg yesterday!

Their coverage is hilarious. I really like those two guys who do Hollywood & I found that whole singing & Jenine Sahadi thing funny.

 

[Valuist]

Kingfin-

I find appearance handicapping to be very good in SoCal racing. I know some people might say "all those horses look great". Not so. One thing to look for is a horses' color. Its almost always sunny in SoCal so check to see if the sun reflects off the horses' coat. If it doesn't, its a negative sign. Joe Takatch, a horse appearance expert, says its a sign of low red blood cell count. True, sometimes there will be 5-6 horses in a race that look great but not always. Dogfish may have some angles on So Cal racing also since he plays all the tracks there.

As for bad prices, when you have small fields thats often a reality. I have seen quite a few races at Hol with 6 horses and the 6-5 favorite wins but a 10-1 or 12-1 outsider gets up for second and the exacta isn't too bad.

Another rule that can be applied at ANY track: avoid races with more than 2 first timers or 2 or more layoff horses. We've all learned this one the hard way. In these races we are at a disadvantage and the horsemen have the advantage since they know far more about the readiness of their animals. But if you do want to play a layoff horse, I'd suggest watching: a) the early money on the board, and b) how the horse looks in the paddock and post parade. I find early money to be more significant because many times, owners and trainers want to be in the paddock but don't want to be shut out. So what do they do? They bet early. And often these horses have a very sharp appearance. I'd put this angle right up there with Mdn Sp Wt drop to Mdn Clmr and switch to a better rider.

 

[kingfin66]

Mr. Takach has written several informative articles about appearance. I have learned a hell of a lot from him. In fact, when Empire Maker had his foot thing, I went right to the site with his articles to see what I could find out.

In case anybody want to read the articles:

www.icapper.com/articles_main.html

 

[Skanoochies]

Kingfin66, one thing that makes capping different at your track and mine (Hast.Park) is they run from say April till the end of Sept. and a good majority of the horses return to the local farms for freshening till the following spring. Whereas in Calif. and on the east coast they have so many tracks in close proximity the meets just move back and forth. ie: S. Anita/ Holly.../ S.Anita etc. a lot of horses seem to be running 20 0r 30 races without much of a break. In the case of our tracks I have noticed over the years that horses that run best in the spring, do so year after year. And others show a trend of always improving as the weather heats up and the season rolls on. If you happen to pay attention certain trainers always seem to have a jump early in the season also, probably starting to work their horse earlier than others.
I have found trying to keep track of this has produced some great prices in the opening weeks particularly. I also notice certain horses from your Em. downs do well when they come north and vice versa. Dave Forster, a trainer that has a lot of stock at both of our tracks, used to be thought of as a guy that would run his horses into shape in races, and was usually tougher as the year wore on.

Great thread you stated here, I like to hear all these opinions.

I will e-mail you to get a copy of of file, Ex. Bet. Strat. if you don`t mind.

Thanks in advance, Skanoochies.

P.S. I have never been to Em. Downs as of yet but in the 70`s my buddies and I used to go to Longacres many sundays every summer.(We didn`t have Sun. racing in those days. It was a sad day for us when we heard the track was sold to make way for Condos or whatever. I still think that was one of the nicest places to take in the races.

 

[kingfin66]

Skanooch,

Longacres was a great track. EmDowns doesn't come close to the charm of Lga but is much better designed and is a nice facility. One of the problems it has, in my opinion, is its location. It is in Auburn, approx 15mi south of the Lga location and is very hard to get to during the week. EmDowns had some controversy regarding its racing surface last year as several horse broke down early in the season.

Overall, I like it (except the drive from Seattle) especially the paddock design which was modeled after DelMar. You may recall that the Lga paddock was at the far end of the track and quite far from the the ticket windows, winner circle etc. EmDowns' paddock is more to the center of the facility and can be viewed from multiple vantage points.

The angle you discussed is a good one. Picking up on those trainers is the challenge.

Mike

 

[Skanoochies]

Hi again Kingfin, actually my job until a week ago took me right by Em. Downs. I just went down I-5 to exit 182, south on 405 to exit 2, and south on 167 to to 15th street exit and voila there it was. Nice looking layout alright, but I never had time to go in.
One of these weeks I`ll get there . What days do they run, Thurs. to Sun?
I am going to e-mail you and take you up on that offer for that info.

Thanks,


Skanoochies.

 

[SeattleSlew]

You guys are referring to "stable mail" as it's called at equibase.com (that's who I use). They send e-mail notification as when a horse has worked, and has been entered in a race.

The only suggestion I can make is to not take your "horse to watch" so seriously that you don't actually handicap the race he is involved in...

I have been guilty of playing a horse blindly, just because I have been following his every move..

So in that regard it can actually hinder you rather than help....

As for my wagering methods, I typically bet win only and in about half those races I wager two horses to win in the same race (dutch betting).

Yeah, I know, you can only win one win wager, but by way of comparison a three horse exacta box is actually six wagers with only one potential winning combination...and exactas are little bit higher on the takeout.

I have been dabbling in pick-3s recently and have had some success there as well..

SLEW

 

[kingfin66]

Slew,

The 3 horse exacta box is a bad bet. I sent you my document on exotics wagering. That should help show you why. Win betting is always a good way to go if you have a horse you really like. Why bet it at all if you don't like it? Exotics are more a way to (1) maximize profit in certain scenarios, or (2) cover yourself if your horse loses (places).

Many of the exotics wagers I place also involve a win bet. Unfortunately, the damn takeout is too high no matter what you play.

I am going to begin practicing Pick Threes as there are certain situations where they can be very useful.

As for your caution regarding watching horses, that makes total sense. I only really ever bet one horse blindly (when I was much younger and more foolish). Captain T.W. Bly was a deep closer who ran at Longacres in the mid-80's. His jockey, Frank Gonsalves, wore bright orange silks. This made it very easy to see the Captain making is move. It was intoxicating...

 

[SeattleSlew]

Definitely true, kingfin...3 horse exacta boxes are typically bad bets.

If I'm going to spend the money to bet 6 different exacta combinations, I usually put the two horses with the longer odds on top of each other and two other horses...same price as an exacta box except it utilizes the longer odds and you get an extra horse in the mix..

Example 1,2/1,2,3,4.

When betting a horse to win I sometimes also put that horse beneath some long shots or all the long shots in an exacta, instead of a place bet...I have "accidently" hit some huge payouts this way.

Thanks for the info, I have yet to read it..but I will soon.

SLEW

 

[Valuist]

With exacta boxes, I believe anything over a 2 horse box is a waste. That's not to say I don't believe in spreading out.

Its even worse in trifectas. I like to use part-wheels in trifectas. Favorites tend to be overbet in the 2nd and 3rd slots but underbet in the win slot because so many people box.

I find Pic 3s best when I don't have a real strong opinion, or if my opinion is strongly negative on the favorite or favorites but not real strong positively on anyone. But Pic 3s can be wasteful also. I really liked Moonlight Minister at Belmont today. The horse won and paid over $15 but I didn't bet a penny to win, having put it all in Pic 3s. I hit the 2nd leg but watched as a 19-1 shot beat me out of a decent payoff in leg three.