Handicapping Referees

[BobbyBlueChip]

There?s been discussion on the baseball forum regarding the fact that some people won?t even play an over/under without knowing who the umpire behind home plate is for the day?s game.

I would think the calls on offensive holding and pass interference are at least as judgmental on the strike zone and nothing stops drives cold like a holding penalty and I don?t think there is a more unfair penalty than pass interference.

I was wondering if anybody has looked at officiating crews during the season to find out if there is any value on playing over/under with knowledge that some crews call more of these judgmental calls than others?

 

[Nolan Dalla]

As you may know, the NFL's pass interferance rule irks me to no end. It has nearly driven me insane to the point of downgrading the NFL to NBA status. Last year's calls were the worst I have ever seen -- with many games decided by marginal, if not wrong, calls. This was particularly troubling when we consider the impact of referees on pointspreads and totals. One pass interference call can be worth 7 points. One hold call can cost a team 7 points. Add a holding call and a pass interference call, and you could have a 14 point swing on a single game!

Last season, I went back and tried to look and see if there was a specific pattern for referee behavior. Kepp in mind there is the head referee, the umpire, the line judges and back judges. The referee often is the key official who will make the most offensive holding calls. Because these officials are in the limelight and their performance is scrutinized by the league office during mid-week, they tend not to run in any specific pattern. In other words, there is no such thing as a penalty-prone official, versus an official who is more lax about enforcement. You might see officials at the end of the season who made more calls than other officials, but I do not believe it is decipherable over the long range. Back judges making pass interferance calls are difficult to track. Since the networks do not show the officials (other than the head referee with the white cap), we often do not know which official was responsible for the flag. Since the numbers of the officials are nearly impossible to track (except the head official) there seems no way to turn this knowledge into profit. Obviously, if we could know in advance that a certain lineman was working a game where a lot of passing is expected, the OVER would be stronger in that situation.

I stand by my view that last year was a bit of an aberration in terms of the degree of havoc these officials did to destroy the natural flow of games. I still insist that the NFL referees strike made these grumpy old men come back with bitter attitudes, and they were collectively and individually movitvated to return and call tighter games, showing "who is in control." I also suspect that NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue made an edict the the NFL referees to come back and call the games tighter so that player would know they would not be able to get away with marginal bending of the rules (keep in mind that all holding calls and pass interference calls are marginal and a matter of judgement -- example: In playoff games and the Super Bowl, you do not see nearly as many marginal calls being made...this is because the league recognized that people want to see football being played without referee interference in the natural flow of the game. The players in these games are ALLOWED more lattitude. That's a fact, borne out by statistics that show less penalties called in playoff games.

I stand by my view that the replacement officials had the right idea -- to let the players play and only to call the most severe violations of the rules. On a MNF game, perrenial ass-kiss Dan FOuts (who I lost all respect for) made the comment that the replacement officials had "lost control of the games." He was flat out wrong and every NFL fan in America knows the games were far more enjoyable to watch and the outcomes were more predictable (I actually had a winning record with the replacement officials).

In conclusion, I see no way to track the officials other than to realize these bufoons are going to influence if not DETERMINE the outcome of games with meganomical control of the field of play. As someone who has always made a lot of money betting UNDERS, my results were marginal last season. The strict enforcement of pass interance rules to the point of making pass defense IMPOSSIBLE to play is something I will give greater weight to in the upcoming NFL season.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Phil Turcotte]

I agree with Nolan to some extent, however having watched an entire NFL and NBA season, I can say without a doubt that NFL officials are ten miles above NBA officials.

You want to talk about determing the outcome of a game? How can people ignore the fact that the refs GAVE the Lakers Game 6 of the Kings series? WHAT A FREAKING JOKE the NBA has become. Given how much I hate the refs, I forgive the NFL. The NBA literally could sell a conspiracy theory movie about the way its games are officiated. I borrowed this partial list from espn.com because I thought it was interesting, the three worst games I have seen in recent memory are all on this list and all have one thing in common.

"1999, Knicks-Pacers, Game 3 ... LJ sinks a game-winning four-pointer (called a continuation foul by referee Jess Kersey even though LJ was fouled a full second before he released the ball).

1999, Knicks-Pacers, Game 6 ... Knicks last chance to close out Indy before the series shifts back to Indiana for Game 7 ... they get every call.

1999, Spurs-Knicks, Game 3 ... down 2-0, the Knicks get every call in their first home game and win their only game of the series.

2000, Knicks-Heat, Game 7 ... Knicks advance to the conference finals ... falling out of bounds, Latrell Sprewell awarded a timeout by referee Bennett Salvatore with 2.1 seconds left even though none of the Knicks called for one ... Sprewell admits after the game that he hadn't called a timeout ... the Miami players chase the referees off the court after the game, yelling that they had been robbed ... after the game, Jamal Mashburn tells reporters, "They had three officials in their pocket" and Tim Hardaway refers to referee Dick Bavetta as "Knick Bavetta."

2000, Lakers-Blazers, Game 7 ... LA shoots 21 more free throws and rallies back from a 17-point deficit in the final seven minutes ... Shaq plays an illegal defense down the stretch, undaunted ... Rasheed Wallace absolutely gets manhandled down the stretch, yet doesn't get a single call ... up by four with 25 seconds left, Shaq body-blocks Steve Smith out of bounds and the refs don't make the call (the most egregious non-call in recent memory).

2002, Celtics-Nets, Game 4 ... Celts up 2-1 ... the Nets are inexplicably allowed to push and shove Kenny Anderson and Pierce while they dribble the ball ... a number of head-scratchers go against Boston, including three offensive charges down the stretch ... four different "bull-(bleep)" chants during the game.

2002, Lakers-Kings, Game 6 ... LA needs a win to stay alive ... from an officiating standpoint, the most one-sided game of the past decade ... at least six dubious calls against the Kings in the fourth quarter alone ... LA averaged 22 free throws a game during the first five games of the series, then attempted 27 freebies in the fourth quarter alone of Game 6 ... rumors that David Stern wanted to pull a Vince McMahon and declare himself "The special guest referee" for this game prove unfounded.

Dick Bavetta was assigned to every one of the above games. "

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Very disturbing if not downright scary information, Phil.

Dick Bevatta may very well be the Richard Steele of the NBA (Steele was noted for being Don King's boy inside the boxing ring). Perhaps Bevatta is Sterns hatchet man to play to the extention of finals and playoff series so as to extract every drop of profit out of the games. I'd be curious to know more about how the selection process works for NBA officials. You do make a convincing case that these games are not on the sqaure. Of course, the networks will never run stories like this (hell, they rarely criticize the officiating and NEVER show replays of quesitonable calls). Too bad the rogue sports reporters (Rome, et al.) don't have the balls to take on this subject and get it out in the open. Funny that even Ralph Nadar, the consumer advocate is wanting an investigation into what happened in Game Six of the LAL-SAC series.

Of course, once the Lakers are crowned world champions, it will all be forgotten and the minions will keep on watching these games which are starting to mirror WFF (whatever wrestling is called).

-- Nolan Dalla