HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS by Nick Douglas

MadJack

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Jul 13, 1999
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HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS

In looking at my record and the way things have gone for me this year, I noticed that my hot and cold streaks are very pronounced. Given that this is a site often used by casual gamblers to piggyback plays from other handicappers, I wondered if there is any merit in the concept of handicapping the handicappers.

It seems that almost anything about a game will be used in handicapping by one person or another. Some folks focus on bullpens for totals plays, some focus on umpires that have small or large strike zones and some may look at hot or cold hitting and for the most part ignore pitching entirely. Heck, some handicappers don't even spend their time handicapping the games. They follow line movement in an attempt to tail syndicates or "steam" plays.

There are stories of success and failure in any type of handicapping. The only true argument that one method trumps another is results. If you have had success relying mostly on umpire tracking, then stick to it. If following steam all day makes you money, then why even try to handicap the games yourself?

It occurred to me that perhaps a site like Mad Jack's could be of use to novice gamlbers in another way, and that is handicapping the handicappers. If you, like most of us, browse the message each day and review plays from most handicappers, it is relatively easy to get a feel for who is hot and who is cold. Obviously there are several handicappers that make money longterm and therefore could be followed for every play, but it may be possible to optimize even that and pick out the spots to follow or stay away from certain handicappers.

The question then becomes, how do I know when to follow a handicapper and when to stay away? Mostly, it is just based on feel. A handicapper may have won a few games in a row and when you look at their plays the next day, the plays make sense for one reason or another. Maybe they are riding a hot team, a hot pitcher or a hot ump. Conversely, if a handicapper has been getting middling results over several days or losing consistently, it may be a good idea to stop tailing their plays until they get things going.

It is well known that the best way to make money long term is to handicap your own plays, but while you are going through the learning process it is often helpful to tail other players to keep your bankroll strong. Learning to pick and choose when to follow strong handicappers during this stage can be a valuable tool.
 
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