Have some fundamentals changed?

[Skinar]

Some long-time succesful handicappers that I have followed for years are having their all-time worst results this year. With the infusion of the internet into the gaming equation, I'm wondering if perhaps some of the fundamentals have changed and these old-timers haven't. This chase has always been about being smarter than the other handicapper, not smarter than the man. When millions of players have instant communication at their finger tips, could this be skewing the lines? Do you suppose that Las Vegas Sports Consultants has thought of this already and is ahead of the crowd?

I really don't have an answer to these question, I just wonder what everyone else thinks about this.

Skinar

 

[buddy]

A most frightening fault of veteran handicappers.....


overanalysis

 

[Nick Douglas]

I think the game has definitely changed. This doesn't apply that much but for me the switch to post most NHL totals at 5 rather than 5.5 has made me completely change the way I handicap hockey totals. The internet surely has a large effect but I do think the giant majority of gamblers don't really use the information available properly. I also think in a way some of the results could be just an extended cold streak. Also, sometimes veteran handicappers stretch themselves too thin trying to find new ways to find an advantage and they can be hurt that way.

 

[alienx]

Coin toss could bring better results then trying to handicap the NFL games. I disagree on the overhandicapping theory. Also think that some games are fixed. Some veteran refs might be getting more then one paycheck. I don't understand how some off them still have a job. Media is full of crap. I want to see couple anouncers that will stand up and make a statement: When you saw a bad call can you say that was BS, Then ask a question to the audiance and the viewers : aren't you sick of it.
How many other sports have the tools NFL has? Can you do what NFL does in a horse race. After seing the photo-finish, can they point to the horse that was barely in the picture, and say Winner. Don't think so.

 

[buddy]

If I remember right, I think it was Bear that said,

"any game I don't win is fixed."

 

[hello there]

I used to flip a penny, and now to pick games, I flip a quarter instead, I think the increase in weight shift from the penny to the quarter has affected my win loss results.

 

[bmc]

I know we alway say each NFL season is crazy, but this one's been way out there.
On Sunday, Oct 21, home dogs were 6-1 ats and 5-2 su!

 

[Skinar]

Good ones guys. Love the one about switching to a quarter. Does anyone know the percentage of NFL games covered by the dogs this year? Seems to me that there have been a hell of a lot of them.

In any event, no one makes much from betting the NFL, I'm trying to focus on college hoops and the NBA. But thanks for the laughs, I needed that.

------------------
'He was a brave man, that first et an oyster' - Jonathan Swift

 

[bear]

Long story short.........
When ya REALLY REALLY crunch the numbers and finally have it figured out....that will be your overlay.....thousands will conclude as you did and most often times so will the linemaker......Unless you're the Mistake Finder, the line will,in reality, favor the other team................for the sake of balance.....that is why the $$$ play is so often NOT the comfort play.

bear.......then if ya dont win ...IT'S FIXED

bear

 

[bmc]

I looked into home dogs a while back - Sunday games only.
September - no winning weeks - total 6-11-3.
October - no loosing weeks - total 15-4-0!
November - 1 loosing week - total 5-4-1 (doesn't include last week).
Final total 26-19-4.

 

[selkirk]

nothing has changed,

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

should add it seems it comes down to information, however most people have access to this information, so there is no great advantage on this front. it is how you interpret this infromation into your capping that makes the difference.

thanks
selkirk

[This message has been edited by selkirk (edited 11-28-2001).]

 

[bmc]

I posted some updated totals on favs, dogs, etc in the NFL forum.
It's hard to read though.

 

[ferdville]

Skinar - you may be on to something. I spent the better part of my first 40 years deeply involved with handicapping horses. I would play angles and make figures for things like interior fractions, track variants and the like that no normal horseplayer in the 70's had ever heard of. I felt that I had a big advantage and won with consistancy. But gradually the information produced by DRF and Racing Digest put this same info that I had to spend hours producing ready at the fingertips of anyone who paid the price. Felt that I had lost a big edge as my pari-mutual opponents now had access to stuff they never knew previously.