Heat ML Under
- Thread starter Bisket23
- Start date
I tried mia H1 / Nyk full game at +550 2x
longshot.
but here’s the thing - butler not playing was priced in with the -5.5 / -6.5, the leap to as high as 11 is where the value could be.
Ive played every team “disadvantaged” by injuries since the playin started, and even clippers covered +8.5 vs suns in gm 3 no KL / PG.
Sixers last night are the latest.
my only issue is motivation. Butler is more than likely ABLE to go but the heat are willing to punt this game b/c theyve gotten the split.
ML scares me. Points or adjusted hwat OVER i like. Best scorer out of course they put up 115
longshot.
but here’s the thing - butler not playing was priced in with the -5.5 / -6.5, the leap to as high as 11 is where the value could be.
Ive played every team “disadvantaged” by injuries since the playin started, and even clippers covered +8.5 vs suns in gm 3 no KL / PG.
Sixers last night are the latest.
my only issue is motivation. Butler is more than likely ABLE to go but the heat are willing to punt this game b/c theyve gotten the split.
ML scares me. Points or adjusted hwat OVER i like. Best scorer out of course they put up 115
I hit on MIA / NY half / full +550.
i dunno i’ve been locked in on the heat this year, and icouldnt wait for this series man.
not gonna lie, these star injury games are difficult. There was a trend in the nba of 24 straight playoff games going back to last season where the point spread didnt matter, you like the dog, ML it, and favs covered every number. I believe it ended with the clippers covering +8.5 vs phx w/o KL and PG but didnt win
thats not counting play-in games because minn covered as a dog vs lal but lost in OT.
its hard to articulate why i take the points vs the ML when a star isnt playing, but the easiest way to put it is depends on the spot in the series and the line movement, AND where you see the playoffs headed as far as conf finals and nba finals.
i see philly in the finals so the pts were a gift, the ML was risky but if they’re going to beat boston may as well get to it in gm 1 right?
same with mia / bucks. I did not see the bucks getting to the eastern finals, partially why i bet on philly to get to the nba finals. So i had no problem betting miami money lines. The only game i sat out was game 2, because the bucks needed gm 2, they were at home, and miami for whatever reason doesn’t win game 2’s lol. Plus the theory is bet on the team without the star, so didnt touch that one.
and in many cases the lines already reflect BEFORE its official that a stars not playing. Ny -5 or -6 was already telling you butler wasnt playing. The series money line told u butler wasnt playing. In these cases its already a tough line before the news hits. I wouldnt touch it pregame except with adjusted lines. So the ppl betting nyk BEFORE the news were on the brink, the surge and late money piling in is what draws me to play it eventually.
finally, late line moves in my view mean:
1. Bet the team its moving against early in the game
2. if it was already a tough call before the line move, the favorites going to win outright.
3. the value of the line move is close to what the final margin ends up being. We saw a 4-5 pt move today against miami, the knicks won by 6. KL moved the clips line 5 points in gm3, from +3 to +8, the suns won by 5. Gobert moved the lakers minn line from 4.5 to 8.5 the lakers won by 6.
books want your money on whatever side u choose at the worst price. Not the WRONG side sometimes the right side but at the wrong price. Thats what these overreaction line moves are - algos and trading desks. Its not like the old days where if a line moved 5 ots before a game sharps were hitting it hard and it was tough to fade. Now its books and online gambling / trading desks using FOMO and psychological warfare to lure you into a mistake.
if the injury narrative dominates every media outlet i see, and i dont hear of ppl taking the inflated line, or see stats / money to support it, its fade the move or no play.
Sorry so long but ive really done well in these spots as the seasons progressed, but the most important thing i can end with is its not a fair game. I wont rant about the absurd things ive seen this season, but i’ve bet on the last 2 lakers games that went to OT (min playin gm & gm 4 vs mem at +900 and +1700 respectively) and won. Its not “rigged” but there are certain teams always involved in shady crap.
i dunno i’ve been locked in on the heat this year, and icouldnt wait for this series man.
not gonna lie, these star injury games are difficult. There was a trend in the nba of 24 straight playoff games going back to last season where the point spread didnt matter, you like the dog, ML it, and favs covered every number. I believe it ended with the clippers covering +8.5 vs phx w/o KL and PG but didnt win
thats not counting play-in games because minn covered as a dog vs lal but lost in OT.
its hard to articulate why i take the points vs the ML when a star isnt playing, but the easiest way to put it is depends on the spot in the series and the line movement, AND where you see the playoffs headed as far as conf finals and nba finals.
i see philly in the finals so the pts were a gift, the ML was risky but if they’re going to beat boston may as well get to it in gm 1 right?
same with mia / bucks. I did not see the bucks getting to the eastern finals, partially why i bet on philly to get to the nba finals. So i had no problem betting miami money lines. The only game i sat out was game 2, because the bucks needed gm 2, they were at home, and miami for whatever reason doesn’t win game 2’s lol. Plus the theory is bet on the team without the star, so didnt touch that one.
and in many cases the lines already reflect BEFORE its official that a stars not playing. Ny -5 or -6 was already telling you butler wasnt playing. The series money line told u butler wasnt playing. In these cases its already a tough line before the news hits. I wouldnt touch it pregame except with adjusted lines. So the ppl betting nyk BEFORE the news were on the brink, the surge and late money piling in is what draws me to play it eventually.
finally, late line moves in my view mean:
1. Bet the team its moving against early in the game
2. if it was already a tough call before the line move, the favorites going to win outright.
3. the value of the line move is close to what the final margin ends up being. We saw a 4-5 pt move today against miami, the knicks won by 6. KL moved the clips line 5 points in gm3, from +3 to +8, the suns won by 5. Gobert moved the lakers minn line from 4.5 to 8.5 the lakers won by 6.
books want your money on whatever side u choose at the worst price. Not the WRONG side sometimes the right side but at the wrong price. Thats what these overreaction line moves are - algos and trading desks. Its not like the old days where if a line moved 5 ots before a game sharps were hitting it hard and it was tough to fade. Now its books and online gambling / trading desks using FOMO and psychological warfare to lure you into a mistake.
if the injury narrative dominates every media outlet i see, and i dont hear of ppl taking the inflated line, or see stats / money to support it, its fade the move or no play.
Sorry so long but ive really done well in these spots as the seasons progressed, but the most important thing i can end with is its not a fair game. I wont rant about the absurd things ive seen this season, but i’ve bet on the last 2 lakers games that went to OT (min playin gm & gm 4 vs mem at +900 and +1700 respectively) and won. Its not “rigged” but there are certain teams always involved in shady crap.
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