Hedge advice please

[Rocafellr]

Alright. Im in an ATS pick pool and Im currently in second. The top three spots pay. And this week if you bet your entire bankroll you get three points.

I decided on Det +10.5.

How do i hedge this? Because Id like to come out of this with something. Firat is about 6000, second 2500 and third about 1200.

Thanks guys.

 

[tball]

Alright. Im in an ATS pick pool and Im currently in second. The top three spots pay. And this week if you bet your entire bankroll you get three points.

I decided on Det +10.5.

How do i hedge this? Because Id like to come out of this with something. Firat is about 6000, second 2500 and third about 1200.

Thanks guys.

have you actually, already put DETROIT in as your pick?

just asking to see if there might be another game that maybe line movement could help you get better middle to have chance win both sides

what are your options as far action on the other side? go through a local? able to buy points? what?

 

[Rocafellr]

Pick needs to be in by 5 pm today.

I can hedge online and with a few locals. Im big on playing dogs as well as fading the public.

I can buy points online and all spreads are given earlier in the week. All of them are mirroring spreads that are currently live

Alex Smith out is now intriguing, but I have to act fast.

I dont have to risk everything. Just want to win!!

 

[tball]

obv theres a handful of really good options, depending on what lines you're working with

if your pool has DET +10.5, -and the line looking closer to about 7.5 now, i would prolly take det pool, and buy down GB to an even number, either 6 (-180) or 7(-140), so long as pushes don't lose you money.

6 would be multiple of prime football number - 2 fg's and 7 is obvious. the hook on the 10 gives ya an extra chance to win with det if lands on 10

if you really like detroit, thats probably what id do.



hopefully others, smarter than i might think to offer their 2 cents (in time enough before your 5pm deadline), as are alotta great cappers/people up in here. GL man

 

[tball]

being in 2nd currently, i imagine if win stay there (at minimum) or possibly take first, if that person falters; that right? so if you pick a winner, you 'should' at least get 2500 (?)<barring too,="" any="" way="" that="" a="" lower="" ranked="" player="" could="" jump="" up,tie="" you="" for="" 2nd="">


so really you have 50/50 chance of 2500 payout.

if you buy down to 7 with GB - which is probably the biggest line difference that i saw (on baord, not knowing lines your poll using)... you're actually getting yourself 4 points (thanks to hook, even though the push cancels/loses)

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if you can afford to take/risk $560 at -7 (-140 roughly) would win you $400 if detroit fails to stay within 10 of GB.
i dont know if thats in/around what you'd be happy with getting. i mean, you made this far in pool, would prolly like to think to have a bigger payday for all time, effort, -something more to show for if you will- even though thinking like that is greedy, and usually doesnt work well.

if gb fails to cover 7 you'd be 2500-560=1940 - so if you'd rather try and guarantee a higher 'payout middle' you could simply increase your wager on GB, thusly lowering your 'no cover' payout.


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the close middle, at gb-7 at 140 would be taking / risking $1435 to win $1025 on GB

if detroit stays inside of 7 at the number, you would lose 1435 from 2500 resulting in 1065

so you either take home

1025 (if gb wins by 11 or more)

1065 (detroit loses by less than 7)

2500 (if gb wins by 7 exactly)- so long as pushes cancel

3525 (if gb wins by 8,9 or 10)


thats all surmising that you dont gain any ground on leader(s) (assuming stands pat, wins). if you catapult into first place, obviously payout becomes heavier, and hedge risk is in theory 'cut in half'</barring>

 

[tball]

the above option isnt taking into account possibly losing and falling to third place, or all leaders (you and trailers at least) lose, and you stand pat at 2nd - which in any case, would obviously find you with additional payout prize amount, from placing

i imagine though, if lose, would slide some, perhaps out of money - depending how close leaderboard is.

 

[Rocafellr]

Thank you very much for your detailed response. Truly what makes this forum unique and incredibly exceptional.

The spread in the pool is 7.5 and me risking everything bumps it to 10.5, because the top three get the extra three points risking it all.

To expand a little on what youve provided Im also really hoping I can scoop GB -7 at some point between now and Sunday then buy it down to 6.5

Just want to clarify i really wanted a play with the half because a push does lose. I could stand pat and hope I stay in second because the difference between third and fourth is too great to make up.

Also if this 10.5 play loses then I get no payout from the pool.

Thanks again for the input and good luck this weekend!!

 

[Construct Carl]

tball - you have given clear and concise answers. Best help and advice to a real question I have seen in years. Well done.

 

[Rocafellr]

Decided against the hedge.

Taking Det +7.5 and a lil Detroit ML.

Call it the reverse hedge, I guess. Best of luck all madjackers.