Thanks to all of you that I follow. I have 8 of 9 in a parlay with Chicago at 11 open. The line is 11.5 now at my book. Any suggestions on what to do will be appreciated.
Hedge Help-MNF
- Thread starter sampson
- Start date
I would wait and see if the line moves more.
there may be a chance that the line moves to 12 or higher in which case you *could* hit both.
Hedge either way and take the sure $$$$ in my opinion.
there may be a chance that the line moves to 12 or higher in which case you *could* hit both.
Hedge either way and take the sure $$$$ in my opinion.
Based on my book, if you made a $100 wager, a 9 team would pay out 35000 (350-1).
I would put half on Arizona and not even have to worry. I cannot imagine the line jumping one way or the other enough to make a nice middle and if it drops, then you could be in trouble. The number is not like a 3,7,10,13,14... something that a game could end up on.
I know you want to hope Chicago wins and you hit it, obviously you felt Chicago can cover, but anything can happen. Like everyone is saying, you need to take the $$$$. If I told you on Friday, that no matter what happened your MNF was going to win you 175 times your bet, you would take it without thinking
I would put half on Arizona and not even have to worry. I cannot imagine the line jumping one way or the other enough to make a nice middle and if it drops, then you could be in trouble. The number is not like a 3,7,10,13,14... something that a game could end up on.
I know you want to hope Chicago wins and you hit it, obviously you felt Chicago can cover, but anything can happen. Like everyone is saying, you need to take the $$$$. If I told you on Friday, that no matter what happened your MNF was going to win you 175 times your bet, you would take it without thinking
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I would not wait for the line to move...
I had the $1000 free bet at the beginning of the year on Pittsburgh. I waited and hoped the line would go up for a nice hedge and Rothlisbereger ended up having emergency surgury. The line dropped and took my hedge from 50/50 to 66/33. Instead of guaranteeing myself $500, I was only able to secure $333
I had the $1000 free bet at the beginning of the year on Pittsburgh. I waited and hoped the line would go up for a nice hedge and Rothlisbereger ended up having emergency surgury. The line dropped and took my hedge from 50/50 to 66/33. Instead of guaranteeing myself $500, I was only able to secure $333
you can get 12.5 now at most places and it looks to go higher. At 13.5 I would buy the 14.5 for a middle for 30% or so of the expected win amount on the parlay. gl turk
There is a chance he has MLs in this parlay which would not be the 350-1 payout, which is why he needs to post the details for accurate advice.
Thanks for input so far. Sorry that I didn't provide more details earlier. There are no money lines. $10 pays $3,500. Not that it matters, but it was a 10 team and there was a push on Atl O. I have Bears at 11 in this one. I also have a 3 of 4 parlay open at 11.5 $10 pays $115. I normally bet $50 on a straight bet game. My book has the line at 12.5 now. I am going to see if it changes and maybe by up some. I will do something to cover and not take my chances. Not that it matters either, but I am not a "he" but a "she". Sampson is my puppies name. Thanks again.
Give me your risk and payout ratio and I will tell you what to do. UNLESS you have already jumped.
IF you have a book you can buy the spread to +14.5 you have a real good shoot at a middle, in which case you don't lose anything. 12,13 & 14 are all key numbers for NFL. The books got hurt badly when GB won but 14 exactly over NE. Grossman is due for a stumble, not saying they won't win and YES I know Chi-town's Dee put Matt on the mat, just saying this is football anything can and does happen. There are some 13's but someone just hit the dog or the bait has been laid.:scared
IF you have a book you can buy the spread to +14.5 you have a real good shoot at a middle, in which case you don't lose anything. 12,13 & 14 are all key numbers for NFL. The books got hurt badly when GB won but 14 exactly over NE. Grossman is due for a stumble, not saying they won't win and YES I know Chi-town's Dee put Matt on the mat, just saying this is football anything can and does happen. There are some 13's but someone just hit the dog or the bait has been laid.:scared
Listen to THUNDER... he's right. Put as much as you can on ARIZONA and walk away with at least a GRAND.
One other option I may offer is this. Play a TEASER tied to a game next week. If you TEASE ARIZONA to 18.5 or 19, well you now have more than a TD to hit the middle. Then, if CHI wins the parlay and your teaser is still alive, you can play the opposite team in the live teaser next week and go for another 6-7 pt middle. You could also wager say $500 on ZONA now and then wait til HT and see how the game is going. If CHI is blowing them out at the half, you could wager more on ZONA then and possibly gain an advantage.
BUT, above all, DEFINITELY hedge some on ARIZONA and make yourself a guaranteed pay day.
Good luck! :SIB
One other option I may offer is this. Play a TEASER tied to a game next week. If you TEASE ARIZONA to 18.5 or 19, well you now have more than a TD to hit the middle. Then, if CHI wins the parlay and your teaser is still alive, you can play the opposite team in the live teaser next week and go for another 6-7 pt middle. You could also wager say $500 on ZONA now and then wait til HT and see how the game is going. If CHI is blowing them out at the half, you could wager more on ZONA then and possibly gain an advantage.
BUT, above all, DEFINITELY hedge some on ARIZONA and make yourself a guaranteed pay day.
Good luck! :SIB
Hun although i think your on the right side of this bet i would still hedge and make guaranteed money. It would help me if you told me what book this play is to make the best hedge possible. Also do you have other books? And do you wear high heels or flats?
Take the + 14 pts for a thousand (like THUNDER said) and root for a middle... You want to make a good profit and still have a little more rooting interest in your original thinking on the bet. Best of Luck tonight!!:mj09:
ok my ISP (TW roadrunner) went down!
I was going to suggest 1500/1000 ON ARZ +14.5
YES a lot of juice but you turn a 1000 profit or a 2000 profit with about a 17% chance that you walk with $4500.
That is simply locking a profit with the shot to hit em both.
Wsex has a 13 right now so +14.5 is only -140.
1400/1000 in other words.
G/L whatever you do ! & let us know we are rooting for yah !
I was going to suggest 1500/1000 ON ARZ +14.5
YES a lot of juice but you turn a 1000 profit or a 2000 profit with about a 17% chance that you walk with $4500.
That is simply locking a profit with the shot to hit em both.
Wsex has a 13 right now so +14.5 is only -140.
1400/1000 in other words.
G/L whatever you do ! & let us know we are rooting for yah !
you would actually have an 11 -12 -13 or 14 is why I said 17% chance :scared
I figured I better get that in here before all my doubters started the parade of questions etc :mj07:
I figured I better get that in here before all my doubters started the parade of questions etc :mj07:
Thanks guys. Went with Az 14 to win 1,000 and teased at 21 with Carolina at 10.5 for 250 to win 192.