I came up with this hedging system during baseball's off months and have used it with a great deal of success during the 2002 regular season. This concept is original and I have not seen anything written on it to date. Unfortunately, the first time I posted a public play here at MadJacks -- to the Message Forum on Tuesday -- it lost (proving Murphy's Law of Averages). But from what you will see below, this system still appears to be a +EV bet based on its recent history dating back the last eight months of regular season baseball games. We shall see if this positive trend will continue, based on additional trials as the season progresses.
The idea is that oddsmakers tend to over-react to the run-line/money-line values, particularly on (expected) high scoring games. I had suspected this for quite some time and only recently started taking advantage of it. The average difference between the money-line price and run-line price ranges from .60 to .70 cents. On some games at offshores, I have seen the discrepancy as high as .80 cents. For simplicity purposes during the remainder of this discussion, let's say the average difference is .65 cents. For instance, let's say in a game between the Rockies and the Padres -- that Colorado is a +140 dog on the run-line (they must win by 2 or more runs) to cash the ticket at +140. The opponent, San Diego is a +125 money-line dog in the game. By hedging both sides of the same game, the only way we can lose money is if Colorado wins the game by exactly one run (which happened to me on Tuesday night by the way, as the final score was 7-6).
Let's say we were to bet every single game of the 2002 regular season to date. How would the hedge play perform if we were to bet every game -- taking the RUN-LINE FAVORITE (-1.5 runs) combined with the OPPOSING TEAM (usually a road dog, although there are some exceptions). When is it profitable to make this hedge play? From the data below, you will soon see:
(The following data includes all regular season games, April 1-30):
NOTE 1: Each loss (favorite wins by one run) results in a $200.00 loss.
NOTE 2: Each win (either team wins, but not the favorite by one run) results in an average of a $32.50 win.
TOTAL (runs expected) W-L RESULTS BASED ON $100/PLAY
7?????..3-1???. - $102.50
7.5 ???. 23-2 ???. +$147.50
8 ???. 30-5 ???. -$25.00
8.5???. 60-15???. -$1050
9 ???. 81-14 ???.. -$137.50
9.5 ???. 65-15???.. -$788.75
10???.. 22-3???.. +$115.00
10.5 ???? 12-2???? -$10.00
11???.. 10-0 ???.. +325.00
11.5 ???.. 4-0 ???.. +$130.00
12+ ???.. 13-0???.. +422.50
Note that, in general, the higher the expected total on the game, the less likely it is that the favorite will win the game by exactly one run (notable exception on total of 7.5, but there are not enough trials to make this statistically valid). The point is -- by betting the hedge play one high totals, we appear to have an overlay based on results from the first month of the season.
Now, let's cut this off at games where the total is 10 runs or higher, in order to save ourselves some time running the non-relevant data on games where the total is <9.5. On games where the total is > 10:
May games (through May 20):
10???.. 23-3???.. +$147.50
10.5 ???? 3-0 ???. +$97.50
11 ???? 7-0???. +277.50
11.5???.. 5-0 ???.. +$162.50
12???.. 4-0???.. +$130.00
NOTE: Not every game was on the board or had a run-line total -- so the number of games may not add up correctly)
Taking both month's results -- this means an 8 percent return on investment for all games played in April (hedging all games with totals 10 or higher) and a 13.9 percent return on investment for games in May. Combined, this is $1,647.00 in profit based on $100 bet on each side for the hedge. Subtract Tuesday night's loser and we still have a respectable win of $1,447.00 So far, there have been 117 games in the majors with totals at 10 runs or higher in 2002 (through May 20th).
Now, let's refine this method. From additional research I discovered that my win rate results on the 10, 10.5, and 11 were an aberration. This shows the fallacy of relying to too little data when making a judgment. The fact is -- I got lucky on the wins on number 10 through 11 and found out this is a long-term loser (albeit a small loss). Therefore, you may want to be more conservative and hedge only the games where the total is 11 or higher. So far, these games are 36-1 for 2002. That's an exceptional performance.
Keep in mind that you are risking SIX TIMES as much money to win a small amount, so you will have many small wins and a few sizable losses, so you must be careful. Manage your hedge bets wisely, as 3 or 4 losses could conceivably wipe out all the gains and make you a loser. However -- I am confident enough with these results based on nearly two months of data and 100+ games to now go public with this information.
So long as favorites do not win by greater than 1/6, this system will make money. It makes even more money if big dogs cash, since that's where the most value is on the money-line. You can also quantify the system by sticking with AL games (traditionally higher scoring), and games played in Houston and Colorado, which produce some wacky scores that are much less likely to be one-run home winners. You should stay away from poor hitting teams and teams with consistent (good) starters. Teams with battered bullpens make prime targets for this play. I do not want to build a money management system to fit these parameters based on such limited data, but the higher the total on the game is, perhaps the more money you should hedge also. The point is -- a run total of 13 appears to be a much stronger play than a hedge on a game with the total at 10.
NOW TO REALLY REFINE THE METHOD TO ITS OPTIMAL LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE: To get even more conservative and to increase the potential rate of return, I went and tracked games where the total was 11.5 or higher for the entire 2001 regular season (purely random choice -- my data was not mined selectively by year just to prove a point) and came up with a W-L record of 120 wins and 12 losses?.or +$1,200.00 based on $100 per hedge play. Games with totals at < 11 showed a small loss overall. So, the point is -- the more data I run, the more likely it appears that 11.5 is the actual cutoff number for a hedge play. Totals are < 11 have performed well this season (2002), but they did not perform as well in 2001. Possible exceptions are all Colorado home games, under any circumstances where total is > 10.
Here's a breakdown by month of the totals > 11.5 for the last 8 months of baseball results (hedge results -- favorite -1.5 with opponent money-line):
April '01???? 23-4 ???? LOST $52.50
May ???.. 25-0 ???.. WON $812.50
June ???? 20-6 ???.. LOST $550.00
July ???? 20-1 ???? WON $450.00
August ???.. 17-1???.. WON $352.50
September ???.. 15-1 ???? WON $287.50
April '02 ???.. 17-0 ???.. WON $552.50
May ???.. 9-1 ???? WON $92.50
TOTAL PROFIT TO DATE: ????. + $1,845.00
ANGLE: HEDGE ANY GAME WHERE THE TOTAL IS 11.5 OR GREATER. (All Rights Reserved -- in the event other sites and scamcappers pick up on this trend and use it/sell it as their own)
The idea is that oddsmakers tend to over-react to the run-line/money-line values, particularly on (expected) high scoring games. I had suspected this for quite some time and only recently started taking advantage of it. The average difference between the money-line price and run-line price ranges from .60 to .70 cents. On some games at offshores, I have seen the discrepancy as high as .80 cents. For simplicity purposes during the remainder of this discussion, let's say the average difference is .65 cents. For instance, let's say in a game between the Rockies and the Padres -- that Colorado is a +140 dog on the run-line (they must win by 2 or more runs) to cash the ticket at +140. The opponent, San Diego is a +125 money-line dog in the game. By hedging both sides of the same game, the only way we can lose money is if Colorado wins the game by exactly one run (which happened to me on Tuesday night by the way, as the final score was 7-6).
Let's say we were to bet every single game of the 2002 regular season to date. How would the hedge play perform if we were to bet every game -- taking the RUN-LINE FAVORITE (-1.5 runs) combined with the OPPOSING TEAM (usually a road dog, although there are some exceptions). When is it profitable to make this hedge play? From the data below, you will soon see:
(The following data includes all regular season games, April 1-30):
NOTE 1: Each loss (favorite wins by one run) results in a $200.00 loss.
NOTE 2: Each win (either team wins, but not the favorite by one run) results in an average of a $32.50 win.
TOTAL (runs expected) W-L RESULTS BASED ON $100/PLAY
7?????..3-1???. - $102.50
7.5 ???. 23-2 ???. +$147.50
8 ???. 30-5 ???. -$25.00
8.5???. 60-15???. -$1050
9 ???. 81-14 ???.. -$137.50
9.5 ???. 65-15???.. -$788.75
10???.. 22-3???.. +$115.00
10.5 ???? 12-2???? -$10.00
11???.. 10-0 ???.. +325.00
11.5 ???.. 4-0 ???.. +$130.00
12+ ???.. 13-0???.. +422.50
Note that, in general, the higher the expected total on the game, the less likely it is that the favorite will win the game by exactly one run (notable exception on total of 7.5, but there are not enough trials to make this statistically valid). The point is -- by betting the hedge play one high totals, we appear to have an overlay based on results from the first month of the season.
Now, let's cut this off at games where the total is 10 runs or higher, in order to save ourselves some time running the non-relevant data on games where the total is <9.5. On games where the total is > 10:
May games (through May 20):
10???.. 23-3???.. +$147.50
10.5 ???? 3-0 ???. +$97.50
11 ???? 7-0???. +277.50
11.5???.. 5-0 ???.. +$162.50
12???.. 4-0???.. +$130.00
NOTE: Not every game was on the board or had a run-line total -- so the number of games may not add up correctly)
Taking both month's results -- this means an 8 percent return on investment for all games played in April (hedging all games with totals 10 or higher) and a 13.9 percent return on investment for games in May. Combined, this is $1,647.00 in profit based on $100 bet on each side for the hedge. Subtract Tuesday night's loser and we still have a respectable win of $1,447.00 So far, there have been 117 games in the majors with totals at 10 runs or higher in 2002 (through May 20th).
Now, let's refine this method. From additional research I discovered that my win rate results on the 10, 10.5, and 11 were an aberration. This shows the fallacy of relying to too little data when making a judgment. The fact is -- I got lucky on the wins on number 10 through 11 and found out this is a long-term loser (albeit a small loss). Therefore, you may want to be more conservative and hedge only the games where the total is 11 or higher. So far, these games are 36-1 for 2002. That's an exceptional performance.
Keep in mind that you are risking SIX TIMES as much money to win a small amount, so you will have many small wins and a few sizable losses, so you must be careful. Manage your hedge bets wisely, as 3 or 4 losses could conceivably wipe out all the gains and make you a loser. However -- I am confident enough with these results based on nearly two months of data and 100+ games to now go public with this information.
So long as favorites do not win by greater than 1/6, this system will make money. It makes even more money if big dogs cash, since that's where the most value is on the money-line. You can also quantify the system by sticking with AL games (traditionally higher scoring), and games played in Houston and Colorado, which produce some wacky scores that are much less likely to be one-run home winners. You should stay away from poor hitting teams and teams with consistent (good) starters. Teams with battered bullpens make prime targets for this play. I do not want to build a money management system to fit these parameters based on such limited data, but the higher the total on the game is, perhaps the more money you should hedge also. The point is -- a run total of 13 appears to be a much stronger play than a hedge on a game with the total at 10.
NOW TO REALLY REFINE THE METHOD TO ITS OPTIMAL LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE: To get even more conservative and to increase the potential rate of return, I went and tracked games where the total was 11.5 or higher for the entire 2001 regular season (purely random choice -- my data was not mined selectively by year just to prove a point) and came up with a W-L record of 120 wins and 12 losses?.or +$1,200.00 based on $100 per hedge play. Games with totals at < 11 showed a small loss overall. So, the point is -- the more data I run, the more likely it appears that 11.5 is the actual cutoff number for a hedge play. Totals are < 11 have performed well this season (2002), but they did not perform as well in 2001. Possible exceptions are all Colorado home games, under any circumstances where total is > 10.
Here's a breakdown by month of the totals > 11.5 for the last 8 months of baseball results (hedge results -- favorite -1.5 with opponent money-line):
April '01???? 23-4 ???? LOST $52.50
May ???.. 25-0 ???.. WON $812.50
June ???? 20-6 ???.. LOST $550.00
July ???? 20-1 ???? WON $450.00
August ???.. 17-1???.. WON $352.50
September ???.. 15-1 ???? WON $287.50
April '02 ???.. 17-0 ???.. WON $552.50
May ???.. 9-1 ???? WON $92.50
TOTAL PROFIT TO DATE: ????. + $1,845.00
ANGLE: HEDGE ANY GAME WHERE THE TOTAL IS 11.5 OR GREATER. (All Rights Reserved -- in the event other sites and scamcappers pick up on this trend and use it/sell it as their own)
