Heineken Classic

[Stanley]

Outright play (0.75 units):

Stephen Leaney to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
This price is much too big so will jump on it early. He had a gentle warm-up in Singapore last week to finish mid-table, but his primary focus will be these co-sanctioned events in Australia. He finished 6th last year, having been in the top-3 entering the final round and has an excellent record when starting his season. In the last six years he has finished 2nd, 17th, mc (5th the following week), 3rd, 6th and 1st. Too high a price for a multiple-winner on both the Australasian and European Tours.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (0.75 units):

Ernie Els to win 4/1 @ Easybets
Hoped for 4/1 and finally found it. He will surely be tired playing his fourth in event in four weeks in three different continents, but it was only the very poor condition of the Laguna National greens that prevented him from cruising to victory last week. There will be no such worries about the greens at Royal Melbourne. He is the most in-form player on the planet at the moment and by quite some distance, averaging 317 yards on his drives and hitting 84% of his greens over the past three weeks. He is defending his title against a field without any consistent title winners. Fatigue will be the greatest worry, but at least he is due to have a rest after this week before teeing up in the Johnnie Walker Classic.

 

[steved]

Beat me to it Stanley!
0.5 ew Leaney 50/1 (365 still there as well!) saw a 5th here, backed him last week. Needed 50 to offset him being hard to catch right...

 

[Stanley]

Adding (0.75 units):

Greg Norman to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
Norman's game may have been in decline since he lost the 1996 Masters to Nick Faldo, but his record in his home country remains as consistent as ever. Not only did he finished 6th here last year and 4th last month in the Australian PGA Championship, in his last 12 Australasian Tour events, he has missed one cut, finished 16th twice and finishes in the top-10 on the other nine occasions. He hasn't picked up a title since winning his own event in 1998, so the place option looks the best strategy. Five Dimes have yet to offer place lines, but are expected to offer 7/1.

 

[Ian]

A couple that seem well overpriced to me at Centrebet are
Tinning - in cracking form at the end of last year and opened with a solid performance in SA last week with each round getting better 100/1
Lucquin - top 10 last week and 125 seems over

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Now I'm gonna let the outrights here to the Euro class----
but Faldo sure looks attractive @ 10/1 to place top 5 @ 5dimes.
Am I all wet on this one?

 

[Stanley]

10/1 seems fair odds to me. He was on my short list, along with Tinning, for place-only bets as accuracy not length will be very important this week. Starting to talk myself out of Els now ...

 

[milpalm]

Leaney 50/1 Bet365. Sticking with Leaney despite his lack of good finishes recently.

Moseley 66/1 Willhill. Big price for this player. Good record in this event.

 

[bettingmad]

Scott Laycock 80/1 Ladbrokes
11th here last year despite an opening 73. Recently came through Q School for the US tour but gone back home for this. Winner in Japan last season.

David Smail 50/1 William Hill
Made a dent in the bank balance with a lacklustre performance in the NZ Open. Hate to miss one next time out so will try him here on his decent event form 19th here last year and previously 7th and 2nd at The Vines. Dual winner in Japan last season including the Japan Open.

Footnote: You Leaney backers could be in for a treat this week as it looks as though "Seedy" has left him alone and so have I.... we never seem to catch him right so this could be his week!!!

 

[Ian]

Would love to know how anyone makes Steve Allen a 100/1 shot - his last event was the Aussie Open before Xmas which he won

 

[Clive]

A Leaney win would be extremely hard to take...esp if it's at the expense of one of mine as it was last year

 

[bettingmad]

No worries Clive....
If he's doing well against Smail or Laycock I intend to stiff him with a bet in-running!!!

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.75 units unless stated):

Steve Webster to beat Arjun Atwal -111 @ BetandWin
Don't expect this one to last to the weekend. Atwal has a very poor record in Australia, missing six cuts from eight starts with his best place of 37th six years ago. Webster does blow hot and cold, but should have a much better chance of playing at the weekend.

Stephen Leaney to beat Paul Casey -110 @ Bet365
Opposing Casey as this is his first time on an Australian course. He missed the cut on his first visit to South Africa, but Australian take even more getting used to. Straightforward to side with an outright pick here.

Peter O'Malley to beat Paul Casey -118 @ Expekt
Against Casey's no course form, O'Malley has an excellent history at Royal Melbourne. He was runner-up last year and in the 1989 Coca-Cola Classic on this course and has finished in the top-10 in four of his last five visits. Enough for me. Also -118 @ Easybets, but ties lose.

Richard Green to beat Brian Davis +100 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Also opposing Davis on the basis of having never played the course before. His record in Australia is also unimpressive: a best finish of 23rd (in 1997) in five previous visits. Coming off a missed cut in the Dunhill Championship (as a outright selection!), he looks opposable, particularly with Green who has course form and finished 5th in his last ANZ Tour event (MasterCard Masters) last month.

Steen Tinning to beat Brian Davis -115 @ Intertops
Also opposing Davis with Tinning, who has decent course form (even dating back to the 1988 World Cup which was played on this course) and is in very good form. He has played five times in the last three months, finishing in the top-10 three times and winning the Madrid Open. Might even repeat his top-5 finish of two years ago.

Steen Tinning to beat Jean-Francois Lucquin -118 @ Expekt [1.5 units]
Lucquin has an impressive record in Asia - top-30 in the two co-sanctioned events at the end of 2002 and 10th last week in Singapore - but he has never played in Australia where the course conditions are very different. Easy to oppose him with Tinning for this week, at least.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Bradley Hughes -111 @ BetandWin
Kjeldsen made the cut last week in his first start of the season, but nothing more, and did the same on this course last year. If he can repeat that feat he will easily defeat Hughes who had a torrid time on the PGA Tour last year. Playing in Australia for the first time since 1999, he looks one to oppose.

Peter Lonard to beat Paul Lawrie -125 @ BlueSq
There is no doubting that Lawrie's form has improved considerably in the past three months and he was involved in the six-man playoff at the Dunhill Championship, but his record in Australia is very poor. In four starts, he has missed the cut three times and finished 58th in the 2000 Heineken Classic. With no course form, he is opposable against the leading Australian players such as Lonard who has won his last two starts on this Tour. He wasn't considered for the outrights as he played in the Phoenix Open last week, but he should finish high enough to easily beat Lawrie.

Greg Norman to beat Paul Lawrie -111 @ Expekt
Therefore straightforward that Lawrie is also opposed with Norman who is an outright selection because of his very consistent record in his home country.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will ride with ya all on leaney. Still mad at Els for spitting bit last week but ya all brought Vaughn home
Maybe Ernies getting a little fatigued from schedule. 5 over on 17 and 18 during tourney last week might indicate that especially missing fairway on 18 last day with iron

 

[Anders]

bettingmad: Spoke to David Smail this week, lives not far from me....admitted he had too nice a break prior to the NZ Open and wasn't ready to be competitive again but has been working hard since...and when David works hard there aren't many in this corner of the world who would be out longer practising than him.
So GL

 

[Anders]

Adding these matchups:

Dougherty o Coltart +120
C Jones o Pearce -111
Smail o O'Hern -110

GL all

 

[bettingmad]

Anders,
Thanks for that.... but have another word with him and tell him to make sure he is lean, mean and up for it whenever he sees I've tipped him on my site!!

 

[Anders]

...lol....i'll keep an eye out and let him know ...it's just these NZ World Cup cricketers I'm working on at the moment

 

[Stanley]

... and they're not the only ones that need working on!

 

[Anders]

Stan - have long given up on your mob :moon:

but it's just trying to convince the guys in our side that they at least e-mail me before each game with "weather pitch conditions"