Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter -112 @ Pinnacle
Apart from the usual reason of inconsistency for opposing Poulter in matchups, his record in Australia is not too good either: mc, 3rd, 25th, mc and 67th. Compare that to 4th, 1st and 18th for Casey and there is plenty of reason to support the outright selection again.
(also available at SIA, Paddy Power, Sirbet and Centrebet)
Paul Casey to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Sirbet [4.5 units] *** SEE BELOW ***
No doubting Cambo's credentials when in Australia, he is a two-time winner of this event (2000 and 2001 at the Vines), for example. But he had surgery to remove varicose vein from his legs in the off-season and was struggling to walk when he competed in the New Zealand Open last month - he missed the cut. He may have recuperated more by this week, but he should be no match for the young Englishman.
(available generally)
Craig Parry to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ Centrebet
Also siding with another of the outright selections in opposing Campbell. Straightforward, given the above.
(also available at Pinnacle)
Craig Parry to beat David Smail -110 @ BetInternet [3 units]
Smail has been in great form over the past month despite worries over the effects of his cracked ribs - 3rd in the New Zealand Open and 4th in the Johnnie Walker Classic. But he finished behind Parry in 2002 when they both played in this event and Parry does have the dominant h2h record on the Australasian Tour: 7-2-0 over the past three years.
(also available at Victor Chandler, SkyBet, SIA and Paddy Power)
David Howell to beat Alastair Forsyth -111 @ Stan James, Paddy Power and SIA
Expecting another solid week from Howell. Not enough to be considered for the outrights, but dependable in the matchups nonetheless. His last missed cut in any event was back in July 2003 at the Irish Open (13 starts ago). He has a 2nd place finish on this course (2002) and this veteran of events in Australia should certainly finish in the top-30 again. That is something that Forsyth has done only once in seven starts in Australia.
David Howell to beat James Kingston -111 @ William Hill and Easybets [3 units]
Similar story here. Kingston has won eight times on the Southern Africa and Davidoff Tours, but struggles in this part of the world. He has finished 70th and 57th in his two starts in this country (2002 and 2003 Johnnie Walker Classics) and with no course experience, he should find it difficult to improve on that average.
David Howell to beat Paul Lawrie -118 @ Expekt
Lawrie cannot claim to have played well on Australian soil either. In six strokeplay events in this country, he has a best finish of 58th. With only one top-10 finish (2003 Open de Madrid) since May last year, he is hardly in the form to compete this week. Siding with the consistent Howell.
Trevor Immelman to beat Raphael Jacquelin -112 @ Pinnacle
Three starts and three top-5 finishes is a very impressive start to the 2004 season for Jacquelin! However, he is still not in the same class of player at Immelman who actually won one of those tournaments. There is also concern over his form on Australian courses - in the last three years he has played eight times in Australia and did finish 5th in the 2002 Johnnie Walker Classic, but his best finish from the other seven starts was 44th. In the last two years on this course, he has finished 74th and missed the cut. So still not in the same class of player as Immelman.
(available generally)
