When my cousin was in LV for the Super Bowl he played a couple Stanley Cup finals future bets. He has one on LV that pays $ 12,500 & Tampa pays $500. If they get into finals should he just hedge with a series bet or game by game or both. Any help would be appreciated.
Help hedging
- Thread starter The Mover
- Start date
Technically, you should never hedge. I'm of the opinion it depends on how much $6000 means to him. I don't think $6K is "life changing" money for anyone, but if it's considered significant to him then yes, a hedge is in order if Vegas makes the final.
Not sure I would hedge for the $500 if it's Tampa v Winnipeg, but if it's Tampa v Vegas the line will be close enough to even money that he could lock up over $5K and if that's "a lot" of money to him then I would do it.
As to how, series bet IMO. Only because if you go game by game and it's 3-1 Tampa how much will you hedge on game 5? You can't go the entire $6K because they could lose that game and still win the series. Hedge on the series as a whole would be the safest way to go.
Not sure I would hedge for the $500 if it's Tampa v Winnipeg, but if it's Tampa v Vegas the line will be close enough to even money that he could lock up over $5K and if that's "a lot" of money to him then I would do it.
As to how, series bet IMO. Only because if you go game by game and it's 3-1 Tampa how much will you hedge on game 5? You can't go the entire $6K because they could lose that game and still win the series. Hedge on the series as a whole would be the safest way to go.
Thanks Pen for the reply. We were texting during the last Tampa game & he mentioned the future tickets he had . I'm the one who brought up the hedging. My thoughts about hedging is $12,500 is very nice, $6,000 is good and zero is zero .
Hedge on the series for a couple grand, and hope it goes 3-0 or 3-1 , then hedge at +1 if the number is right. VEGAS wins by one you win and tie, Vegas loses you can do the same the next night with a little money in your pocket...Just a suggestion.
Game by game is NOT a good idea till you get 3-1 or 3-1 Vegas. you'll be rooting for and against yourself so much, you'll get a headache.
Game by game is NOT a good idea till you get 3-1 or 3-1 Vegas. you'll be rooting for and against yourself so much, you'll get a headache.
Because you now have a lot of equity you didn't have when you placed the bet. Typically hedging is a bad idea, but this goes beyond the value of understanding standard variation and realizing the equity you have is valuable and worth something.
To each their own, but I am of the school, if you place a bet, you expect to win the bet, so I would never hedge a bet.
Unless maybe if it was a massive huge payoff, like if you had a 25 dollar bet on Ben Curtis to win the British Open in 2003 at 2000-1 odds. I mean if there was some huge massive payout coming your way, then maybe. But even then I'd probably ride it out.
I say again, if you place a bet you expect and want it to win, so don't back off, let it play out.
I'm not disagreeing with your school of thought, just saying when you have equity you didn't have sometimes it makes sense to get your share of it.
Don't forget a "massive" amount of money is defined differently for everyone, maybe $6K means a lot to his cousin. It's not life changing, but it would mean a lot for me as well.
Also, some people place those season long wagers for the exact purpose of hedging when it gets to this point. Hell, he could hedge the Winnipeg series for $1000 and still lock up over $5K if Vegas advances. Nothing wrong with that.
I usually won't hedge the last game of a parlay, but in a season long or odds to win championship type of bet I certainly consider it and in this case locking up $5K sounds pretty nice.
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$6,000.00 won on a futures wager then put aside for a rainy day in the future are days well planned.
I agree with everything you said. I try to avoid the last game of a parlay situation because I hate being in that position. For example, I won't play a parlay with the last game being a MNF game.
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You only hedge if the new bet is +EV. Otherwise, don't do it. Unless it's a life changing amount.
Thanks for the info. guys . I talked to him earlier & he has decided to not hedge if LV gets to the finals. He lives in Florida and his local doesn't take much action & feels opening an offshore account is too much trouble. Hope he cashes ! Thanks again guys !
Everyone's opinion is different. My goal is always to win money. If I have an edge with good middle, I hedge. Any day I can end up on the plus side when I'm gambling is a good day, especially when I know going in I am neither skilled or lucky. :0008
I've been this way since I was lucky enough to middle both Super Bowl 13 and 14 with locals on the Steelers.
I've been this way since I was lucky enough to middle both Super Bowl 13 and 14 with locals on the Steelers.
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26 SECONDS LEFT...SUPER BOWL 13 ...THIS GETS YOU A MIDDLE...
AND BLEIER RECOVERS THE ONSIDE KICK
| 4 | 0:26 | 3 | 1 | PIT 4 | Roger Staubach pass complete to Butch Johnson for 4 yards, touchdown | 35 | 30 | 5.010 | 7.000 | 0.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rafael Septien kicks extra point good | 35 | 31 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 16.5 |
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SUPER BOWL 14
4TH QUARTER..........I assume this drive gave you the middle
| 4 | 4:16 | 3 | 7 | PIT 33 | Terry Bradshaw pass complete to John Stallworth for 45 yards (tackle by Rod Perry) | 19 | 24 | 0.100 | 4.110 | 99.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3:42 | 1 | 10 | RAM 22 | Rocky Bleier for no gain (tackle by Jack Reynolds) | 19 | 24 | 4.110 | 3.560 | 99.9 |
| 4 | 3:08 | 2 | 10 | RAM 22 | Bradshaw pass to J. Smith in end zone incomplete. Play nullified and Los Angeles penalized 21 for pass interference (Perry). | 19 | 24 | 3.560 | 6.970 | 99.9 |
| 4 | 2:34 | 1 | 1 | RAM 1 | Rocky Bleier for no gain (tackle by Jack Reynolds) | 19 | 24 | 6.970 | 5.910 | 99.9 |
| 4 | 2:00 | 2 | 1 | RAM 1 | Franco Harris for no gain (tackle by Jack Reynolds) | 19 | 24 | 5.910 | 5.170 | 99.9 |
| 4 | 1:52 | 3 | 1 | RAM 1 | Franco Harris for 1 yard, touchdown | 19 | 30 | 5.170 | 7.000 | 99.9 |
| 4 | Matt Bahr kicks extra point good | 19 | 31 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 99.9 |
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everybody needs a little ................LUCK
dear friend of mine passed away after a long battle with brain cancer Sept 2017 ...we gambled,shot pool,drank beer,ran women and smoked pot for all or part of nearly 35 years.Two of his best sayings were.
"That line is there for a reason."
"I would rather be lucky than good any day of the week"
Billy Harmon He picked more winning dogs in a week than I could in a month of Sundays
6 Grand winnings.......oh the middles to shoot for.......
1 in 9 right.........
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You are just giving up your edge in that case. Eating away at your profits. If you can't lose money for a few days in a row as your edge overcomes variance, what are you doing gambling?
Being entertained.....in my entire life I only know one person who made a living gambling unless they were bookies. I'm just glad I never went broke after 50 years of it......to each there own. :0008
Thanks for the memories OLD SCHOOL. If there had been a 2 point conversion back in those days, I probably don't middle either one. :142smilie
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would like to see Hawkeye and Musca with 6 grand bankroll in women's hoops this season.w/ 4 or 5 houses w/lines overnight and decent juice...whew yeeeeeee. talk about bustin' some middles..ouch oh my ............sides and totals with major moves.
you are welcome....I love middles..........love guys and girls who put the money in their pockets when they can too.
it's all entertainment dollar to most ..........use decent money management and use 5 % juice ...follow the smart guys in each sports and you can hang around Madjacksports for 60 years without going completely broke.
To each their own OLD SCHOOL. Similar to buying GOLD or SILVER as hedge against stock market declines I guess......
