help...looking for a stat (team record, 1-run games, a home-away split for same)

I

IE

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It is exceedingly difficult for teams to consistently win one-run games. Teams that have a good or bad record in one-run games one season usually don?t perform to that same level the following year.

For example in 2015, the Pirates, Angels and Cubs combined to go a ridiculous 105-55 (65.6%) in one-run games. The next season those same three clubs went 59-64 (48.0%) in games decided by one run. Even the Cubbies, who won more than 100 games and captured their first World Series in 108 years were below .500 in one-run games.

Teams that perform badly are just as likely to regress to the mean in one-run games. In 2015 the Blue Jays, Athletics and Phillies went 50-90 (35.7%) in one-run games. Magically, a year later they went 74-76 (49.3%). Philadelphia even road the regression train during the season. The Phillies started the year with a 14-3 (82.4%) record in one-run games before finishing 28-23 (54.9%).

What teams can we expect to improve and decline in 2017 based on record in one-run games?

Team Record Win%
Rangers 36-11 76.6
Yankees 24-12 66.7
Tigers 26-17 60.4
Nationals 26-19 57.8
Indians 28-21 57.1
Orioles 21-16 56.8
Diamondbacks 22-17 56.4
Phillies 28-23 54.9
Mets 25-22 53.2
Astros 28-25 52.8
Dodgers 22-20 52.4
Cardinals 24-23 51.1
Giants 28-27 50.9
Mariners 30-30 50
Cubs 22-23 48.9
Pirates 20-21 48.8
Braves 21-22 48.8
Royals 23-25 47.9
Marlins 22-24 47.8
Athletics 25-28 47.2
Angels 17-20 45.9
Blue Jays 21-25 45.7
Red Sox 20-24 45.5
Brewers 23-28 45.1
Reds 22-27 44.9
White Sox 23-29 44.2
Padres 19-31 38
Rockies 12-20 37.5
Twins 15-29 34.1
Rays 13-27 32.5

2016 was a great year for the Texas Rangers. The team won the AL West with a 95-67 record. Yet when you adjust for their underlying statistic and quality of opponent the Rangers project as a 79-win club. Why? Texas went an MLB-best 36-11 in one-run games. That was the best winning percentage in one-run games in baseball dating back to 1901. The Rangers are expected to take a step back in 2017 as oddsmakers have posted the team?s season win total at 85.5 games.

The Yankees and Tigers are two more teams that should see their records in one-run games move toward the .500 mark. Both squads won more than 60% of their games decided by a single run last year. New York and Detroit have win totals below their 2016 record.

The Rays, Twins and Rockies combined to win just a third of their games (40-76) decided by one run last season. None of them made the playoffs and Tampa Bay and Minnesota finished at the bottom of their respective divisions. Even a modest improvement in one-run games could do wonders for their team records.
 
E

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
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Thanks, IE. I king of expected something from ya barring the inquiry not being over
anyone else's head. I was going to elaborate on what I'm thinking about but I figured
that doing so would scare away more than normal.

The closest thing I find--in the links you provided--is a section in the pinnacle article
with the heading: How often does a Run Line favorite win by exactly one run?
(about half-way down)
Even I can fathom that road teams have a better shot at the run-line than the home side,
hence the quite different odds. What I'm looking for is some quantifiable evidence to give
me an idea of what the true difference is. Run-line records--with the home/away split I'm
looking for--would almost work but that split is not available to my looking and, generally,
to calculate any run-line probability I have to use simple arithmetic based on a team's
W's and their W's in one-run games. I did notice that the teamrankings site a home/away
split for run-differential against the runline,
(as they define it, "The average amount of points that the team covers the spread by")
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_home
but this number appears meaningless to me, for reasons transcending my problem with
a breakdown of an overall run-line record. i.e. I could give care less what a team's
record is against the run-line when they are GETTING the +1.5; I want to know team's
records for any -1.5, as in how many of a team's W's come by more than 1-run.
This is what I need as the home/away split.

Just a long winded elaboration.
Maybe another last second ncaa hoops burn is what I could use as a distraction.
Enjoy the last 2 EEs.
 
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