HELP PLEASE!

[alienx]

I am trying to remember the formula for combinations and permutations. I just need on of them just can't figure which one is which. I need the formula for calculating the round robin plays. It's a very simple math formula, I learned in high shcool and then forgot about it. For those who does not know roundrobin, you make subparleys of a bigger parley. Like a 6 team parley roundrobin by 3 teams, you are making all the posiable 3 team parleys out of 6 teams. How many 3 team groups(parleys) can you make out of 6 teams? I think answer is 20.
Out of 5 teams you can make 10, 3 teamers.

But what is the formula?

 

[kaoboy]

Permutations of r Objects from a set of n Objects:

P(n,r)= n!
----
(n-r)!

where 0 is less than or equal to r and
r is less than or equal to n

does this help?

If you figure it out before me please post
I'm interested in the solution.

 

[alienx]

ok now correct me if I am wrong:
n! means (n-1)+(n-2)+(n-3).... until n-x=0

I am comfused about what is permutations and what is combinations. I think permutations is when the order of the objects is important. Is that right. If so then I need the formula for the combinations.

To clearify the round robin :
For instance, if a player asked for a $100, three-team Round Robin with teams A, B, and C, he/she is simply requesting a two-team parlay with teams A and B, another parlay with teams A and C, and another with teams B and C, for a total of 3 individual parlays, each for $100. The total amount risked would be $300.

Round Robins get more complex as the number of teams increases. A four-team Round Robin "by twos" for $100 would mean that the bettor wants four teams to be included in a combination of two-team parlays. This would be a total of six individual two-team parlays, for a total risk of $600. If the request is for a Round Robin "by threes", it would include a total of four possible combinations, for a risk of $400.

Example

A player requests a $100 four team Round Robin "by twos", with teams A, B, C and D. The possible combinations would be as follows:

Teams AB $100 to win $260
Teams AC $100 to win $260
Teams AD $100 to win $260
Teams BC $100 to win $260
Teams BD $100 to win $260
Teams CD $100 to win $260


If all four teams win, the player wins $1240, while risking only $600! If one game loses, there is still a profit, even though three of the parlays would lose. The three winners get back $780, plus the $100 laid for each parlay, for a total of $1080. After subtracting $300 for the 3 losers, the player profits $480!

It get more complicated when there is 6-7 teams. You also have the option to subparley into anything less then the total team number.

 

[dr. freeze]

correction: if all 4 teams win with that proposition, you win 260*6=1560

if 3 teams win, you win half the bets for 480 you are correct.....

gets bad though if you split...only win one bet and lose 5 losing 240....that is the bad part of it and also the most likely.....so you better have 3 of 4 winners if you are playing this and even if you do, you can almost make as much playing 150 a game spending your 600 that way....

 

[kaoboy]

alienx,

I don't know if this will format after pasting, but here's the solution.

Combination of r objects from a Set of n Objects


C ( n , r ) = n! 0 < or = to r < or = n
______________

r! ( n ? r ) !

Out of 6 teams, how many combinations of 3 team parlays can be made?


C ( 6, 3 ) = 6!
______________

3! ( 6-3 ) !


= (6) (5) (4) (3)
_______________

(3) (2) (1) (3)


= (6) (5) (4)
____________

(3) (2) (1)


= 120
________

6


= 20 combinations

 

[kaoboy]

Check me if I'm wrong.

Placing 3 team wagers on the above scenario
at $10 per wager the returns would be:

Teams winning Risk Return

6 of 6 $200 $1200

5 of 6 $200 $500

4 of 6 $200 $40

3 of 6 $200 -$140

Using the same formula above you would figure how many winning parlays by
calculating the combinations created
minus one.

In other words, using 5 teams gives you 10
3 team sets. 10 winners and 10 losers

$600 in winners
$100 in losers
$500 net

Is this what you were looking for?

 

[alienx]

Thanks Kaoboy,

Couldn't have done a better job w/ the format. I was looking for the formula to figure a chart to look at. Depending on how man games I like on the board could be effeicient to go w/ dif Combinations. Just trying to limit the money risked and increse the possiable gain, like any other capper that thinks they are smarter then the man.

Again, thanks a lot for the effort. What is your opinion on these?

 

[kaoboy]

Alienx,

Great idea, but as Dr.Freeze points out,
a losing proposition if you split,and thats
some steep "vig" when you go 50/50 playing
parlays.

I'm toying with this idea. Lets say on any
given night you have 6 to 8 strong plays.

You could simply play a 6 or 8 pick and
play your strongest play straight for an
equal amount to gain a push, but were not
really getting any advantage there either.
One loss risks your whole nut.

Were looking to see if we can get combinations that will win at worst with a
split and increase the return if were luckier.

Is there a way of playing say 4 out of 6,
or 6 out of 8, with less combinations and
increase the odds and limit your overall
risk?

Bottom line, before we think about ways of
beating our man, we have to first figure out
how he's got us beat.

Lets go back to the formulas. Using the
permutation formula calculate your odds
and compare them to the odds you get on
each parlay combination.

Then, work out some other combinations that
make use of all the picks, but don't play
all the possibilities and see what we can
work out there.

I'm sure someone will jump in here and quickly point out we are beating a dead horse, but I wanted to do this just for the
exercise.

Let me go ahead and pencil this out and I'll
get back to you with some numbers.

 

[alienx]

Kaoboy, I have started dong this b/c since football season started I have lost 5-6 parleys w/ 1 or 2 teams. It was sickening that I would pick 5, 6 winners out off 7 or 8 teams ( in one night, not just parleys but including the straight bets), but still have a losing night or a break even. I have been good at college foots. but couldn't make much money. You still have to be lucky. But besides that your success w/ such a proposition depends on your loosing paterns, and how well you can analyze it. JMO.

[This message has been edited by alienx (edited 12-08-2001).]

 

[kaoboy]

Alienx,

I have had the same type of success as you
are experiencing.
I missed a $20 8 pick by 1, the team that
didn't cover missed by 1 point.
I went 6 of 7 on a teaser and 5 of 6 on
another parlay. I know the feeling.
Better lucky than good.

While working on the multiple combination
idea, I am trying the following hypothetical
Using our 6 plays and risking $100:

5 -2pick -$10 parlays
10 -3pick -$5 parlays

Remember our 6 team - 3 pick idea produced 20 combinations. I cut it down to half and
arbitrarily picked 5 -2 teamers.

Now we have to understand by not using all
the combinations, if we go 3-3, we will
get an unbalanced loss or return depending
on which teams win and which don't.
But unlike a wheel where your depending on
one or two strong pays to win, this will
be more random. We may still have to depend
on a particular order.

I will work this out later when time permits.
Let me know what you think.

 

[Juice]

to work out 6 team rr by 3 teams you would do:
(6x5x4) / (1x2x3)

6 team rr by 2 teams would be:
(6x5) / (1x2)

9 team rr by 4 teams is:
(9x8x7x6) / (1x2x3x4)

etc.

 

[alienx]

Juice, Yes you can simplfy the formula that way. Both yours and Kaoboys formula's are correct. Until Kaoboy put it out for me, I couldn't remember the formula to start with. Looks pretty simple now.
Dr. Frozen, You are wrong in your math. I don't know if you are still around to see where you were wrong, after the heat you got for your comments in the Pigskins forum yesterday. The player wins $1240. It's not as simple as multiplying by 6 b/c $260 includes the money you are risking as well. Hope you won't be my Dr. oneday.
Kaoboy, Holly chit man, why didn't you try to middle it when you realize you won 7 of the 8 picks? I'm sure there is a reason. I have no intentions of bragging but look at this 9 teamer. Trying to figure how much to put on Colts today in hopes of getting the middle. Maybe buy the 2.5 point and have -%160 moneline for Colts +7.5. (let me know what you'd do) Eather way can't loose. This was my $3 scratch off card, got lucky.
9 Team PARLAY
3.00 wagered to win 231.55 at 12/9/2001 12:45:01 AM
Odds : 77.18 to 1
Ties-Lose : NO

NBA PHOENIX to Win +5(-170)
You bought 3 points
PHOENIX 91 TORONTO 90
status : WIN
NFL DETROIT to Win +10.5(-165)
You bought 3 points
DETROIT 12 TAMPA BAY 15
status : WIN
NBA DETROIT to Win -6(-170)
You bought 3 points
HOUSTON 77 DETROIT 105
status : WIN
NFL ST. LOUIS to Win -4(-170)
You bought 3 points
SAN FRANCISCO 14 ST. LOUIS 27
status : WIN
NFL GREEN BAY to Win -2.5(-170)
You bought 3 points
CHICAGO 7 GREEN BAY 17
status : WIN
NFL PHILADELPHIA to Win -4(-170)
You bought 3 points
SAN DIEGO 14 PHILADELPHIA 24
status : WIN
NFL PITTSBURGH to Win -2.5(-130)
You bought 1 points
NY JETS 7 PITTSBURGH 18
status : WIN
NFL Point Total Over 7(-140)
1st Qtr-NEW ORLEANS 14 1st Qtr-ATLANTA 7
status : WIN
NFL MIAMI to Win -2(-170)
You bought 3 points
INDIANAPOLIS vs MIAMI

 

[kaoboy]

Alienx,

Sorry I haven't had time until now to get
back to you. Good for you, man! Nice hit.
The plays I lost with were unfortunatly too
early in the time progression for me to
catch a middle. Thanks for reminding me though. Wouldn't want to miss that opportunity.

That last parlaying scheme doesn't pan out
as I hoped, but worth a look anyway. The other problem I'm wondering about is if you
do set up a bunch of parlays and go to place
them all online would you be able to get them
all posted before any line movement?

My system is not fast enough to do it I'm
sure. Well, back to the drawing board. If
I come up with any ideas, I'll hook up with
you.

Best of Luck!