Help!!!!! (pt.2)

[Stanley]

Not a great piece of insider info, but a request.

I'm finalising arrangements with www.sportsdatabases.com to extend their matchup coverage to golf in time for the start of the 2003 season.

If you click on 'Database' at the top of this page, you can see the integrated database functions that are available on this site from sportsdatabases.com.

The benefit of combining specialised programmers with my database is that we can delve deeper into the stats to find trends, head-to-head records, situational angles, etc. that can be useful for our golf capping.

Click on the 'database' link above and look at the type of info & format that is being used for the major U.S. sports and think of what search functions would be appropriate for golf.

I have some ideas, but we want to get this thing finalised and tested before the end of the year, so please help me with suggestions

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

This will come as no surprise to you Stan.Its the one I have you send me periodically. You have it somewhat in your long term stats but 3 year format. It is % of cuts made/player in like 6 months intervals are there abouts. Sometimes I fear these stats help the books more than us.The sharper the stats the keener the lines.
I know I said this before but I can remember not long ago there was three or four tags a year at end of summary for events that had SWEEP in it. Not just a couple of matches but 7 to 10. Have seen none this year. I think we are doing better job of capping mostly due to resources made available by those here especially Stan's stats but lines are MUCH tougher throughout industry.$plays is only weak sister I have anymore. "Winning" dogs much harder to find. Where my wagers used to ave in the + line it has eeked into the - line.
It is harder to make money on matchups but believe outrights have become more lucrative. Just my opinion.

 

[steved]

if someone is collecting these stats (it might be you alrerady Stan!) I would like to be able to see them. A trend analysis of weekly performance based on stats returned at that weeks tournament. So, PGIR may show 1.7 / 1.75 / 1.68 / 1.66 / 1.64 etc
Now this may be due to different grass on greens, or change of putter, or player gradually warming up on their putting, but it certainly indicates improvement that PGA stats would not show, unless you printed them off each week, and looked for trends..
Another positive wuld be that once you have built this up over a period of time you would be able to check what stats a player was returning when he was playing well/winning, and possibly spot this improvement before it happens..

 

[Stanley]

DTB,
Yes, being able to provide summary stats for any given player would be something I'll make sure is available.

Steved,
These per-event 'box score' stats (driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, putts per round) & scoring stats are in my database for the PGA, Senior PGA, WGC and LPGA Tours. You can search them per tournament or per player via my the database searches on my site:

Click on 'Database - Men' in the left frame and then on either of the bottom two searches in the resulting page.

Without the frames, the direct links are:

www.tour-tips.com/fpdb/mensstat.asp
www.tour-tips.com/fpdb/mensscoringstat.asp



DTB,
Making stats readily available is certainly a double-edged sword and I have often wondered whether it would be best if I just pulled the plug on the site. But it's like saying it is best not to share information here because the books might read it as well. But it is certainly tougher to find weaker lines nowadays for the PGA Tour, but at least we do have much wider coverage of the other more profitable Tours as compensation

 

[steved]

thanks Stan! never thought to move down on the database search page, so did not see what is below...this is very good info..hopefully try and find someone to beat Hunter Mahan in Texas!

 

[Stanley]

And if I haven't said it before ...

Huge thanks to Bettingmad for writing the code for these database searches on my site :toast:

 

[bettingmad]

Thanks Stan... I'd like to change it somehow... so that if it smells a bookie using it... wrong results are displayed!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Oh NO Don't pull plug on site LOL In reality it just puts us on even keel with knowlege I am sure some books have. I think where golf punters have disadvantage is, unlike in foots,hoops and bases where there are an abundance of what I will refer to as "social betters" most specialty sports have for most part pretty savvy bettors which books know in advance and we do not get a lot of lines skewed to the "social bettors" opinions,if you know what I mean.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Maybe I was wrong about social betters.Maybe there are some following this guy @ pgatour.com Sheez I wonder if they pay this guy.LOL
http://www.pgatour.com/u/ce/feature/0,1977,5644706,00.html

 

[steved]

turn this round...is anyone looking at the bookies as opposed to them looking at us?
I have been taking a casual interest but I am not in the database league yet...
why I have spotted is that some keep their heads down, whereas other like to take a 'view' on players, either good or bad...
I am trying to get some stats together, but am struggling to work out a meaningful rating system...
for instance..Coral appear to do well because they often have winners and placed golfers at the shortest prices..however, they often have 20-30 players shortest in odds comparison tables, so it is no wonder...
Tote rarely try and duck a player, and their prices are not that competitive, but when they do, you look at him after he has placed/won, and you take note for next time...what business sense is it to have Leonard 5/1 this week, they will not lay a penny on him...???

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Great point Steved.One of the sharpest golf lines makers I have seen is Wally at Olympic. I always look at his opening lines,not to bet but to get his views. I do make occasional 72 hole continuation match bets but can't remember any wagers there in 1st rd partly due to 30 cent lines but mostly out of respect for his judgement.

 

[Stanley]

DTB, if you look at who Tour Insider Dave Shedloski has picked, his only winners have been Tiger Woods (5 times from 120 picks)

Even my record on this year's PGA Tour is better than that !!!

 

[Stanley]

Interesting points guys. Coral Eurobet do have sharp lines and that has been widely noticed, plus they do put a lot of emphasis on course form. Another that has sharp lines IMO is Surrey (or rather Skybet now); I know the golf line-maker there and he does like to have an opinion and he does bet widely at other books!

To make any sense of them as per ratings, you would need to divide a player's odds by the book percentage. Say Leonard is 7/1 and the book percentage is 100%, then they are assuming he has a 12.5% chance of winning.

If the book percentage is 200%, then the 'true odds' are only 6.25% and the rest is just book profit.

You can use a simple java book % calculator, such as at http://www.betting-ring.com/calculator.html to determine the book percentage. It would be useful to know the book percentage when comparing odds if you are going to cap the bookies rather the the players.

But as DTB also pointed out, it is the opening and not the closing lines that are important.

Good luck

 

[steved]

current crude methods used by me are based on first determining who has most players at shortest prices..Corals won that...then I looked for numbers of top 5 placings achieved. Corals did not win that, which puts you on your guard against following them blindly...best for US PGA was Bet Direct (that is why I was worried about backing Henry!), with Ladbrokes close behind. Best for European was Ladbrokes, with Corals (twice as many qualifying selections) and Hills close behind...
There, info shared, but changes by the week, although patterns now emerging. I have been looking since 3July, so not all season.
Another aspect is where bookies go big on a player, trying to attract bets on him...I have not looked at that, but it might be another area to consider...
Also, I am only using Racing Post, to limit books looked at...only so many hours in the day and all that!
I will need to chew over the percentage of books bit, but thank you, very interesting!

 

[bettingmad]

Steved,
There is a bit on percentages on my site and a calculator.

The Tote having Leonard at 5/1 is reasonable if they are mad keen on him... if he wins it's a clear book and they will balance their book on the other players. Consider though that the prices in the R Post Wednesday are out of date in relation to what has happened earlier in the week.... I don't know if they cut Leonard this week but lots of prices seem to disappear Monday these days.

Bad news this week is that SportingBet and SportingOdds had the same prices... since SBet bought SOdds this is the first time I have noticed they match... one less option for a bit of value.