Help Wanted

[milldaddy]

I'm posting this for my roommate who isn't registered here at MadJacks!

He put a bet on the Pats winning the Super Bowl at 100 to 1 odds (when the Pats were 0-2). I told him to hedge this, but with the Rams ML being so high, he's thinking of letting it ride.

Any thoughts/advise/opinions would be greatly appreciated
:shrug:

Thanks in advance

 

[tarheeldeuce]

i would put some money on the rams minus the points thinking if the game is close the pats will win, if the rams win it will be a blow out. not exactly that safe of a play, but that is what i would do.

deuce

 

[thunderdoll]

I would put some money on the Rams ML, enough to cover my initial investment plus a small profit. That way he wins no matter what happensd. Just my opinion.

 

[TheShrimp]

He knows the score. If he has 10 bucks on the pats at 100:1, he stands to make 1000 if they win.

Here are the options I'd consider:

1) If he just wants his initial investment back, he can bet 55 on the rams ML, insuring a 0 profit ($10 win minus initial 10 on pats) if rams win or a 945 profit (pats win).

2) If he's really sure the rams are going to win, he can lay the whole grand on the rams ML, getting $182 back on a rams win, and pushing on a pats win.

3) To guarantee the largest profit, no matter who wins, he should put *about* $850 on the Rams, guaranteeing about $150 win either way.

I would not bet the rams ATS looking for the "pats win the close one OR rams win in a blowout" scenario that tarheeldeuce mentioned. There is a large enough chance of the pats covering without winning this one, and him losing both ways.

If you can find a better ML than -550, I'd definitely go with scenario 3, and bet less on the rams. If he wants to gamble a little, just let it ride and root like hell for the pats. Jump on the ML early if you're doing 3, because it will probably get steeper as we approach game time.

TheShrimp