HH System Compatible Pacers

jng

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Nov 15, 2000
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Pacers tomorrow, right?

From Happy Hippo:

"Teams off a four game road trip as a 6+ point favorite are 87-19 SU (+10.2 ppg) and 54-48-4 ATS since the 2006 season. Again, nothing too convincing there, but certainly doesn't scare me away from playing a team off a road trip. I also like that they lost the last two games, and badly. I think it motivates them more for tonight. If they were coming off a win, no way I play them here.

Teams coming off a road game when playing at home with the Heat on deck are 22-16-1 ATS since the 2011 season."
 

Happy Hippo

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Mar 2, 2006
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Good find and memory, even if it was just a couple days ago!

This is true, but we also have a couple other things in play with this game - Detroit coming off a blowout and they were not favored by the closing line, whereas the Magic were coming off a close home win as a favorite. Also, Pacers covered their last game on the road trip, whereas Brooklyn was coming off two blowouts as well.

I will look into it though and let you know what else I find. I already copied down a few notes on it last night.

:0074
 

Happy Hippo

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Here's what I found for you:

The Pistons coming off a loss playing as a road dog with no rest are 4-27 SU (-11.6) and 12-19 ATS since the 2009 season. The Pistons playing as a road dog after a double digit home loss are 5-10 ATS since the 2009 season, including not covering the last 6 and losing by an average of 15.8 points. The Pistons are 2-15 SU (-12.8 ppg) and 5-12 ATS since the 2011 calendar year in a same season rematch when they lost the first game at home. In the reverse situation, the Pacers are 12-5 SU and 7-10 ATS.

The Pistons are 6-14 SU (-2.2) and 14-6 ATS as a road dog after allowing an opponent to score more than 105 points.

This season, the Pacers are 7-0 SU (+13.1 ppg) and 5-1-1 ATS as a home favorite coming off a one possession road loss. Pacers at home this season against teams with a losing record are 2-6-2 ATS.

Teams playing on one day rest coming off a road loss against the Nuggets as a home favorite are 22-15 SU and 12-25 ATS since the 2003 season.

No huge advantage situation wise for either team, would be my feeling. I would say that the Pacers have a lot more mental toughness than the Pistons, and will come out fired up after the horrible beat they took against the Nuggets at the end of that game. The Pistons may come out completely deflated, or they may be pissed about being embarrassed. I have no read on them. I think Lawrence Frank is an awful coach, and his team plays inconsistently because of it. They are prone to huge meltdowns in games. I avoid betting on their games, unless I have a great angle.


Good luck with what you decide!
 
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