Hi guys; it's been a while. Hockey totals questions for you and my research.

[Stag]

Love Madjacks. I used to post here a lot. I don't post in any other forums.

Anyway, I love hockey totals. They have intrigued me since I started betting them 18 years ago.

I've been busy doing tons of research on hockey totals, and how to beat them. There are actually ways to beat (SOME) bookmakers and sportsbooks without any handicapping these totals.

Before I get into my research, I have a few questions of my own:

1- I miss the days where I can just call my "local" and he would give me the "rundown" on all the hockey totals. Everything was -110. It was very simple. If I had known THEN what I know NOW, I would have really made a small fortune. If these types of locals STILL EXIST, I would be making a fortune now...providing they offer all hockey totals at -110 each way.
Does anybody still have access to a local with -110 totals each way? If so, I'm about to make you very happy. I am also VERY JEALOUS if you do! Ha!
One of my locals (who used to do the -110) each way, got "shut-down" (that's a common way for us here in the Northeast of saying "told to close-up shop or pay-up to the Big Boys.")
My other local used to deal totals with ONE-SIDE SHADED. (Example: 6 under -120. 6 over even) He got wise to the advantage we the players had with totals, especially with the advent of the internet. He changed in '98 or so to this "shading"...before the Big Boys told him to close shop.
Anyway, I stopped betting hockey totals with him as soon as he started "shading"...as I figured the -120 juice was to difficult to beat. (And betting the other way...even with even odds, was not smart...in any way, shape, or form.)
But I would do anything to have him back...even with the -120 shading to just one side. I've done research going back several seasons, and I can now be able to beat the -120.

2- I now use "agents." Agents are basically locals (who work for the Big Boys) who use a website off-shore and a 1-800#. There is no more waiting by phones or adding up everyone's figure at the end of each week. It's easy for everybody; especially the locals.
Here's my question: Does anybody use these websites (or any other reputable sportsbook) that offer -110 hockey totals each way? Before laughing at me, I know this is 99.9 unlikely! Ha!
How about any of these websites or books that just "shade" their totals ONE WAY, like the local I described above? (-120 one way, and even on the other)....if so, please let me know. There is serious cash to be made!

3- Maybe IE or Jack can post this thread in the General Forum (or someplace else here, too.)...since the majority of bettors don't bet hockey, especially totals!

4- Here is what I am doing now. I have only one of these "agent books"....but I feel they have been catching on to my "UNDER" system lately....as they have been switching totals from 5.5 to 5. (Which totally defeats the purpose and effectiveness of making any money!)
The book I use puts out a total and shades it BOTH WAYS (-120 toward the over and -120 toward the under). Again, I thought IMPOSSIBLE to beat in the long run, right? WRONG!

5- I'll get into my exact research numbers in this thread (in a different post) later....but I want to help ALL OF US. Which books (or off-shore agent-run websites) do you use for playing hockey totals. Do you have any book which NEVER charges over -120 on any total? If yes, that is great!
The problem is that my book is now moving MANY totals which should be 5.5...down to 5. And that's not helping.

Basically, I take the CLOSING TOTAL ODDS at Pinnacle. And if Pinnacle has a total on a game of 5.5 under -125 or more (like -130, -133, -140, 142,-145, etc.), I'll take the UNDER 5.5 (at -120) at my book. The numbers over the last few years are STAGGERING. And that's with no handicapping needed.

Also, I have done some research on the prop "Will there be a goal scored in the first 10:00 of the game?" (This took me weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks of research)....but the answer "NO", as in "no goal in the first 10 minutes" can be profitable (but not nearly as profitable as all the full-game under 5.5's I was talking about.
Does your book (or any reputable book you know of offer this "Goal in first 10:00?" prop? If so, are the odds the SAME for every NHL game, regardless of the teams playing or the actual game total?
My current book has the same odds for EVERY game. "Yes" is -130. "No" is even money (no juice). It doesn't matter if the game total is 6 or 4.5; the odds at my book are always the same. (As is the time of the first goal...always over/under 10:00) I've made some money on the "No Goal" with totals of 5-under or 4.5. (Again, no handicapping needed).
This prop is limited to a $100 wager where I put my action.

Anyway, answer some of my questions if this interests you. Also, please add your own thoughts and strategies about hockey totals and what I've discussed. I'll be back with my research numbers later.

My best to you,
Stag

 

[IE]

careful w/ agent sites..if anyone is going to be busted its them first.

monitor betonline shading on team totals and totals....plus you have in game live betting.

they have the lowest vigorish for NHL this side of Pinnacle.

this thread is fine here, i am sure you will get your responses you want.


good luck.

 

[IE]

you can also check games w/ link at the top of the forum, which includes pinnacle.
click on the game you want under what sportsbook you want for line history.

http://madjacksports.com/forum/lines.php?sport=nhl&period=0

 

[Stag]

Thanks, IE. I will definitely check that out.
The agent sites are okay; but some of the people you have to deal with are jerks. I've been introduced to a few different "agents" and some of them don't like to pay people. Some of them think "The house ALWAYS has to win." Also, they have to wait on others to pay them before they can pay you. (Just like any local, I guess. Same risks.)
The agent I use now is okay.

 

[unclejordy]

I use an agent site out of Costa Rica. Juice on NHL unders ranges from -145 to +105 depending on game. Majority are 5 but a couple 5.5 on board.

It also provides scoring in first 10 min props. No score is typically even to +110 and Yes score are -135/-140

 

[Stag]

For instance, and I am NOT bragging. I just made $100 on the Min/NJD game "No goal in first 10:00." That game had a low total (5 under)...so I played "No."
I'll also be playing "no goal" tonight in Buf/StL for the same amount.
I've found that games with low totals (obviously) have less of a chance for having a goal scored in the first 10:00. (And my juice doesn't change)

 

[Stag]

@Unclejordy...
That's awesome about the no goal prop at your site! Yes, they adjust the moneyline, but are you sure you never have to lay any juice on the "NO" side, ever? In fact, you get some +money on some??!
There's money to be made for you there, Jordy!

 

[unclejordy]

I'll monitor it, those were the odds for tonight's games.

 

[unclejordy]

What is the juice on your first 10 min props?

 

[Stag]

Always the same for every game.
Yes -130
No +100

I either play No or pass. I play "No" on any game that has a total of 5-shaded under or 4.5.
Two games fit tonight....Min-NJD and Buf-StL.

The game total at my book for Buf-StL is 4.5 (-120 each way).....That's the 2nd 4.5 I've seen this year (both with Buffalo involved).
It makes zero financial sense to take the under 4.5 (at -120) at my book...when real offshore books can offer you +120 on the under!

About a decade ago, before SHOOTOUTS, I used to see a bunch of 4.5 totals. Now, a game can't end in a 2-2 tie, so you don't see hardly any 4.5 totals anymore...as one team HAS to win 3-2 in OT or shootout.
I even remember seeing a few totals of 4 (FOUR!) on NHL games about a dozen or so years ago. (Shaded to the over, of course, but still!)

 

[Stag]

My research showed that playing "YES" to a goal in the first 10:00 (at -130 odds) was a losing proposition; no matter how high-scoring the game was expected to be.

 

[Stag]

I really don't think there is enough written (betting articles) about NHL totals. If anybody comes across a good one (with research) please post. I also haven't seen any articles about the first 10:00 prop or the over/under 1.5 goals in the first period prop.
I did some research on the over/under 1.5 goals in the first period, which every book offers. I could not find any advantage whatsoever, In fact, the juice could eat you alive both ways.
My book does change the odds on every game for the first period total, but not the 10:00 prop. That's why I play the 10:00 under prop. It's not a big moneymaker, but it is in POSITIVE UNITS in each of the last few seasons at +100 on low total games.

 

[Tman]

Good info Stag, are you saying play any Under (for game) if the juice is -125 or higher if you can get it at -120 or obviously less? If that is correct I would like to see the numbers you came up with. Thanks:toast:

 

[Stag]

Hello, TMan (a fellow NYG fan)......
Yes, that's exactly what I am saying.
My research of every closing line at Pinnacle and the final scores of all NHL games since 2010:
Totals of 5.5 under -125 and higher have hit at a 65.3% clip.
Totals of 5.5 under -130 and higher have hit at 67.1%
Totals of 5.5 under -135 and higher have hit at 74.2% :toast:
Totals of 5.5 under -140 and higher have hit at 71.8%
Totals of 5.5 under -145 and higher have hit at 71.2%
Totals of 5.5 under and -150 and above have hit at 69.8%

I can't explain why the higher the juice, the lower the winning % (at -140 and above.) Makes no sense to me. Might just be a statistical anomaly. But, as you can see, ANY wager on a total of 5.5 when the closing line at Pinnacle is at least -125 is a money maker (when played at -120 odds, like I have)
Ha! If you still get -110 odds on all totals, your bookie is the greatest (and most old-fashioned) guy around.

Remember, when playing all totals at -120 odds, you only need a 54.5% winning percentage.

Let me just give you the numbers from this season alone, so you can see that this strategy is current and not "outdated"
Through 11/12: (2014-15 NHL season)

5.5 under -125 and higher
44 wins, 24 losses...+15.2 units (remember; total units won is more important than winning %)

5.5 under -130 and higher
36-14......+19.2 units

5.5 under -135 and higher
28-7.......+19.6 units. (The best moneymaker is at this -135 and higher threshold) 80%:00hour

5.5 under -140 and higher
19-6...+11.2 units

5.5 under -145 and higher
8-3....+4.4 units

5.5 under -150 and beyond
5-2....+2.6 units

Again, these units won are based on you playing these all at -120 odds.

Sadly, my book has finally started to move a lot of these totals to 5; which takes all the value away and makes them no play.

I also went back to 2010 and looked at every game which had a closing line at Pinnacle of 5-shaded to the under, (and the handful of 4.5 games)......to see when the first goal was scored in these games. With the lowest totals, my thought was that these games would produce less goals in the first 10:00 of the game than any of the other totals. My (long and exhausting) research confirmed that to be true.
Of all the games which qualified, there was no goal scored in the first 10:00 in 52.5% of them. At even odds (+100) like my book offers on ALL NHL games for "No goal in the opening 10:00"...it is definitely worth playing. You're not going to make a killing, but it is found money...just by playing it blindly. If you don't get it at least +100 (even), then it is a losing proposition.

Anyway, would love to hear your guys thoughts. It seems like the most common final score for an NHL game nowadays seems to be 3-2. (Teams tend to play tighter when it's 2-2 midway through the 3rd period, as now they are guaranteed a point if they just force overtime.) Yes, the empty-net goals still suck. But my numbers prove that this under 5.5 when the line is greater than -125 works, when you can play it at -120 odds.

 

[Tman]

Very interesting, looks like free money if you can find the right odds :0008

 

[unclejordy]

Stag... No goal prop is -105 in Kings game tonight so there are in fact negative odds for that prop. I use eagle. Still meet a guy weekly for cash. Like it better than offshore with a credit card.

 

[Stag]

I used to use eagle. But the agents I used for them were a-holes. Always had excuses. (Not Eagles' fault, of course)
But Eagle would often grade my plays incorrectly (winners into losers...never the other way around) and they would delete any plays I made that they think I "past-posted" on. The only deleted my "winners"...never my "losers." Never took responsibility for their own mistakes. But screwed me when I lost. I was at their mercy.
I use Universe now.

I wouldn't play the prop at -105...no matter how low scoring the game might be. Only even or +odds.
Thanks.

 

[Stag]

What is the highest total you've guys have ever seen? (NOT counting the All-Star Game, of course!)

I started with hockey totals in the mid-1990's, and I remember seeing a 7.5 on a game. (I think it was a Western Conference game...maybe Vancouver and/or Calgary was involved) that was in '96 or '97.

I've often wondered about the history of NHL totals. I can't seem to find any research on the topic.
When I was a kid (and WAY before I knew what betting was) the Edmonton Oilers were dominating hockey in the 80s. With so many great offensive players on their team, I would imagine that some nights they would have totals of maybe 8.5 or 9 or maybe even more? This is just a guess. Anybody recall?

I do, however, remember the days (before the shootout rule) where locals would give you "puck lines" on every game. They didn't use moneylines, like baseball, like they do now. I think they stopped this because there HAS to be a winner...there can be no more ties.
It was such an awful bet for the player (and great for the bookie). Say Washington was playing at Philadelphia; he would read you a line like "Philadelphia 1 - 1 1/2" They were actually also listed in the newspaper like this. It was a such a huge advantage for the bookie. If you took Philly, you needed to win by 2 goals in order to collect. If you took Washington, you needed to either have Washington tie or win the game outright. If Philly won by exactly one goal, the bookie would win on all Philly bets, and push on all Washington bets. I was so envious of these guys for this racket they had going on with hockey wagering! (The only positive was that they never charged any vig)
What was Edmonton like back in the 80s with these old lines against a bad team. Did he ever say "Edmonton 3.5 - 4"??? LOL. How many goals would they be favored by? Anybody remember? I guess I can look through some microfilm of old newspapers and look at the daily lines they used to print in some newspapers.
It was awful for the players, though, and that's why I turned to totals. Like I said in my first post, if I had access to the internet with all these heavily shaded games...betting with locals who had totals at -110 each way....I would be on my own private island right now!
Lowest totals I recall were 4. Some NJ Devils' games when they had Marty and the neutral-zone trap. Even in the playoffs, where there cannot be ties, and a goal must be scored in overtime. Playoffs were generally low-scoring. I doubt we will ever see a "4" again with the league setting up new rules to increase scoring.
When I first started wagering on totals, most lines were either 6, or 6.5 I saw a some 7's and that one 7.5.
Then, maybe late 90s or Y2K, he read me a "5.5"....I was like "WOW!" A hockey game with a total of 5.5? That is low! Then, the next month or so, he reads me a "5"...I was like, okay, totals can never go lower than that.
Then, my locals closed, and I started using offshore books...and I saw the 4.5's. And even the very rare FOUR!

 

[unclejordy]

Interesting stuff. Knock on wood my agents have been legit. They have a pretty big operation here in So Cal. Had a few flip flop lines canceled on me, but it was Eagles fault as they provided the wrong lines. Never heard of universe. Will have to check it out.

 

[kickserv]

What is the highest total you've guys have ever seen? (NOT counting the All-Star Game, of course!)

I started with hockey totals in the mid-1990's, and I remember seeing a 7.5 on a game. (I think it was a Western Conference game...maybe Vancouver and/or Calgary was involved) that was in '96 or '97.

I've often wondered about the history of NHL totals. I can't seem to find any research on the topic.
When I was a kid (and WAY before I knew what betting was) the Edmonton Oilers were dominating hockey in the 80s. With so many great offensive players on their team, I would imagine that some nights they would have totals of maybe 8.5 or 9 or maybe even more? This is just a guess. Anybody recall?

Yes there were totals of 8.5 on some Oiler games in the mid 80's.